He aha te Whakamuritanga Maha
Ko te whakatauira maha he tikanga tātari tatauranga e whakamahia ana hei mārama ki te whanaungatanga i waenga i te taurangi whakawhirinaki kotahi me ngā taurangi motuhake e rua, neke atu rānei. He maha ngā whakamahinga o tēnei tikanga i roto i ngā rangahau pāpori, ōhanga, pakihi, hauora, mātauranga, me te pūtaiao raraunga nā te mea ka taea e ia te whakamārama me pēhea te awe ngātahi o ētahi āhuatanga ki tētahi putanga.
Hei tauira, me kī kei te hiahia tetahi ki te matapae i ngā kaute whakamātautau a tētahi ākonga. Tērā pea ka pāngia ngā kaute whakamātautau (te taurangi whakawhirinaki) e ngā hāora ako, te haerenga mai, me te urunga atu ki te whakaakoranga (ngā taurangi motuhake). Mā te whakatautau maha ka whakautu i ngā pātai pēnei i: Ko ēhea ngā āhuatanga tino whai mana? Mēnā ka piki ake ngā hāora ako, e hia te nui o te pikinga o te kaute whakamātautau toharite, me te pupuri i ētahi atu āhuatanga kia pumau?
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Te Whakamārama me te Kaupapa o te Whakamuritanga Maha
I ngā kupu ngāwari, ko te whāinga o te whakatautau maha ko:
1. Matapaetia te uara o te taurangi whakawhirinaki i runga i ētahi taurangi motuhake.
2. Whakamāramahia te nui o te awe o ia taurangi motuhake ki te taurangi whakawhirinaki.
3. Ka whakaiti i te whakaaro pōhēhē ka puta ake mēnā kotahi anake te taurangi motuhake ka whakamahia, ahakoa i roto i te ao tūturu ka awehia te āhuatanga e ngā āhuatanga maha.
4. Te whakahaere i ētahi atu taurangi (mana whakahaere) i te wā e whakamātautau ana i te awe o tētahi taurangi motuhake.
Mēnā he whakatauira māmā , ka titiro noa tātou ki te whanaungatanga o tētahi āhuatanga ki tētahi putanga. Heoi, i te ao tūturu, he maha ngā pānga e taupatupatu ana. Koinei te wāhi ka tino pono ake ai te whakatauira maha: ka ngana ki te kite i te "pikitia whānui" mā te whakauru i ngā taurangi maha i te wā kotahi.
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Te Āhua Whānui o te Whārite Whakamuri Maha
Ko te tikanga ka tuhia te whakatauira maha hei whārite:
Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 + … + bnXn + e
Ngā Mōhiohio:
– Y = taurangi whakawhirinaki (me whakamārama/matapae)
– a = pūmau (te uara o Y ina he 0 ngā X katoa)
– b1, b2, … bn = ngā taunga whakatautau mō ia taurangi motuhake
– X1, X2, … Xn = ngā taurangi motuhake
– e = hapa/toenga (te wāhanga o te rerekētanga o Y kāore e taea te whakamārama e te tauira)
Ko te tauwehenga b te wāhanga e tino whakamāramahia ana. Hei tauira, ki te mea ko b1 = 2,5, ko ia pikinga kotahi-wae i roto i te X1 ka piki ake a Y mā te 2,5, me te whakaaro kei te noho pūmau tonu ētahi atu taurangi motuhake. He mea nui te kupu "kei te pūmau katoa ngā mea katoa" nā te mea e tohu ana i tētahi āhuatanga matua o te whakatautau maha: ka ine i te pānga "wāhanga" o tētahi taurangi.
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Tauira o te Taupānga Whakamuri Maha
Hei whakamāmā ake, anei tētahi tauira māmā i roto i te ao pakihi. Hei tauira, e hiahia ana tētahi kamupene ki te mōhio ki ngā āhuatanga e awe ana i te hoko hua (Y). kohikohi raraunga:
– X1 = ngā utu pānuitanga (i roto i ngā miriona rupiah)
– X2 = te utu hua (i roto i ngā mano rupi)
– X3 = te maha o ngā kaihoko hokohoko hohe
Mā ngā hua o te tātari ka puta te whārite:
Hokonga = 100 + 8X1 – 5X2 + 12X3
Te whakamaoritanga:
– Pūmau 100: ina whakaarohia ngā utu pānuitanga, ngā utu, me ngā kaihoko anō he 0, ka whakatauhia ko ngā hoko he 100 waeine (he whakamārama pāngarau noa iho tēnei, i ētahi wā kāore e mārama i te ao tūturu).
– 8X1: e matapaetia ana ka piki ake ngā hoko mā te 8 waeine ia 1 miriona tāpiri i roto i ngā utu pānuitanga, mena ka noho tonu te utu me te kaihoko.
– -5X2: e matapaetia ana ka whakaitihia ngā hoko mā te 5 waeine ia pikinga utu kotahi mano rupiah, mena ka noho pūmau tonu ētahi atu taurangi.
– 12X3: mā ia kaihoko hokohoko kotahi ka piki ake ngā hoko mā te 12 waeine, mena ka noho pūmau tonu ētahi atu taurangi.
Mā tēnei tauira, ka taea e ngā kamupene te waihanga kaupapa here: hei tauira, te whakatau i te whakakotahitanga o te pānuitanga, ngā utu, me te maha o ngā kaihoko anō hei whakatutuki i ngā whāinga hoko.
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Āhea te wā e tika ai te whakamahi i te Whakamuritanga Maha?
He pai te whakamahi i te whakatauira maha ina:
1. Kotahi te putanga matua e hiahia ana koe ki te matapae (Y).
2. E whakapaetia ana he nui atu i te kotahi ngā āhuatanga hei awe i te putanga (X).
3. Kei runga i te tauine tau ngā raraunga, ka taea rānei te whakarerekē hei āhua tau (hei tauira, ka whakarerekētia ngā kāwai hei tauhou).
Ka taea hoki te whakamahi i tēnei tikanga hei "whakamātautau i ngā ariā" i roto i ngā rangahau, hei tauira mēnā kei te hiranga tonu te pānga o te mātauranga ki te whiwhinga moni whai muri i te whakahaere i te wheako mahi me te wāhi noho.
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Ngā Whakaaro Hira i roto i te Whakamuritanga Maha
Kia tika ai ngā hua, he maha ngā whakapae me whai whakaaro ki te whakatautau maha:
1. Te Raina
E whakaarohia ana he hononga rārangi te whanaungatanga i waenga i ngā taurangi motuhake me ngā taurangi whakawhirinaki. Mēnā he piko te whanaungatanga tuturu (kore-rārangi), tērā pea kāore i te tino tika te tauira rārangi.
2. Kāore he maha-whakapiripiri teitei
Kaua e tino kaha te hononga o ngā taurangi motuhake. Mēnā he tata ōrite a X1 me X2, ka uaua ki te wehewehe i ō rāua pānga.
3. Te Whakahāwea i te Ira Tangata
E matapaetia ana kia ōrite tonu te rerekētanga toenga puta noa i ngā uara katoa i matapaetia. Mēnā ka nui ake te toenga i tētahi uara (heteroscedasticity), tērā pea ka iti ake te whai hua o te whakatau tata.
4. Te āhua noa o ngā toenga (e hiahiatia ana i ngā wā katoa)
Me tata te tohatoha noa o ngā toenga, inā koa mō ngā take o whakamātautau hiranga.
5. Te motuhake o ngā hapa
Kaua e honoa ngā hapa i waenga i ngā kitenga. He maha ngā wā ka puta ake tēnei raruraru i roto i ngā raraunga raupapa wā.
Ko te tirotiro i ngā whakapae ka mahia mā roto i ngā kauwhata toenga, ngā whakamātautau tatauranga (hei tauira, te VIF mō te maha-whakapiripiri), me ētahi atu tātaritanga tātaritanga.
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Te Ine i te Kounga Tauira: R² me ngā Whakamātautau Hiranga
I roto i te whakatauira maha, he maha ngā tohu noa e whakamahia ana:
– R² (Tauwehenga Whakatau)
E whakaatu ana i te ōwehenga o te rerekētanga i roto i te Y ka taea te whakamārama e te tauira. Ko ngā uara R² kei waenga i te 0–1. Ko te nui ake o te R², ko te nui ake o te rerekētanga e whakamāramahia ana e te taurangi motuhake. Heoi, ko te nui o te R² ehara i te mea he "tika" tonu te tauira; tera pea ka puta he taunga nui rawa.
– R² kua Whakatikatikahia
He putanga o R² e whai whakaaro ana ki te maha o ngā taurangi motuhake. Mā tēnei ka āwhina i te whakatairite i ngā tauira me ngā taurangi rerekē.
– Whakamātautau F (i te wā kotahi)
Te whakamātautau mēnā he pānga nui tō ngā taurangi motuhake ki a Y.
– whakamātautau-t (wāhanga)
Whakamātauria mēnā he hiranga ā-tatauranga ia tauwehenga (b1, b2, me ētahi atu).
Mā tēnei whakamātautau, ka taea e ngā kairangahau te aromatawai mēnā he whai hua te tauira, me ēhea hoki ngā taurangi e whai wāhi nui ana.
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Ngā Painga me ngā Here o te Whakamuritanga Maha
Te taikaha
– He pono ake nā te mea he maha ngā āhuatanga e whakaarohia ana i te wā kotahi.
– Ka taea te whakamahi mō te matapae me te whakamārama.
– Ka āhei te tātari pānga ā-wāhanga (te whakahaere i ētahi atu taurangi).
– Koinei te pūtake mō ngā tikanga matatau maha i roto i te tatauranga me te ako mīhini.
Ngā Here
– Ka pāngia e te maha-whakapiripiri.
– Ka taea e ngā hua te hē mena kāore e tutuki ngā whakapae.
– Kāore e tohu aunoa i te whanaungatanga take; e whakaatu ana te whakatauira i te hononga, ā, me whai hoahoa rangahau pakari te whanaungatanga take.
– Ka puta pea te overfitting mēnā he nui rawa ngā taurangi ki te nui o ngā raraunga.
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Te Katinga
He taputapu tatauranga nui te whakatauira maha mō te tātari i te whanaungatanga i waenga i tētahi taurangi whakawhirinaki kotahi me ngā taurangi motuhake maha. Mā te whakamahi i tētahi whārite ngāwari noa iho, ka āwhina tēnei tikanga i ngā kairangahau me ngā kaimahi ki te mārama ki ngā āhuatanga whai mana, ki te ine i te kaha o te awe o ia taurangi, me te whakatau i ngā matapae tika ake i te whakamahi i tētahi āhuatanga kotahi anake.
Heoi, ehara te whakatautau maha i te "taputapu makutu". Me whai kounga raraunga pai, he kōwhiringa taurangi whaitake, me te tirotiro whakaaro kia tika ai te whakamaoritanga. Ina whakamahia tika, ka taea e te whakatautau maha te whakarato i tētahi turanga pakari mō te whakatau kaupapa e ahu mai ana i ngā raraunga i roto i ngā momo mara.
Ki te hiahia koe, ka taea e au te āwhina i a koe ki te waihanga i tētahi putanga o tēnei tuhinga mō tētahi horopaki motuhake (hei tauira, mō tētahi tuhinga rangahau, mō te pakihi, mō ngā kaipānui kura tuarua rānei) me ngā tauira tātaitanga māmā me te pēhea te pānui i ngā putanga SPSS/Excel/R.
