Ngā Tikanga Whakataurite i roto i ngā Tatauranga
I roto i te mahi tatauranga me te tātari raraunga, tata tonu te puta o te raruraru o ngā raraunga ngaro. Tērā pea ka ngaro ngā raraunga nā te kore whakautu a ngā kaiwhakautu i ētahi pātai, ngā hapa tuhi, te pokanoa o te pūoko, te pirau o ngā raraunga i te wā tango, nā te tukanga whakakotahi rānei i ngā pūtake raraunga maha kāore i te tino ōrite. Ki te kore e tika te whakahaere, ka taea e ngā raraunga ngaro te whakaheke i te kounga o te tātari , te whakaiti i te kaha o te whakamātautau, ā, ka arahi atu ki ngā whakatau whakapae. Ko tētahi o ngā huarahi tino noa ki te whakahaere i ngā raraunga ngaro ko te tātai, arā, ko te whakakī i ngā uara ngaro ki ngā uara whakatau tata i runga i ngā mōhiohio e wātea ana.
He aha te hiranga o te Whakatakotoranga?
He maha ngā take e whiriwhiria ai te tātaitanga i te muku noa i ngā raraunga ngaro. Tuatahi, mā te muku i ngā rarangi/kitenga kei roto ngā uara ngaro (hei tauira, te mukunga rārangi) ka taea te whakaiti nui i te rahi o te tauira, inā koa he nui te ōrau o ngā raraunga ngaro. Tuarua, ki te kore e ngaro matapōkeretia ngā raraunga, ka taea e te mukunga te whakaputa i te whakaaro hē. Tuatoru, he maha ngā rauropi tatauranga, ako mīhini rānei e hiahia ana ki ngā raraunga katoa , ka waiho te tātaitanga hei taahiraa tukatuka mua watea.
Heoi, ehara i te mea ko te "whakakī i ngā āputa" anake te kaupapa o te whakatauira. Me whai whakaaro te tikanga i whiriwhiria ki te tikanga raraunga ngaro, te hanganga o ngā taurangi, me ngā whāinga o te tātari. Ka taea e te whakatauira ngoikore te "māminga" i te tauira, te whakaiti i te rerekētanga, me te whakaatu i ngā hua kia tino pono atu i tō rātou āhua tūturu.
Tikanga Raraunga Ngaro
I roto i ngā tuhinga tatauranga, e toru ngā tikanga matua mō te ngaro o ngā raraunga:
1. MCAR (Ngaro Katoa i te Matapōkere): kāore te tūponotanga o te ngaronga o ngā raraunga e pā ana ki ngā taurangi katoa, ahakoa i kitea, i kore rānei i kitea. Hei tauira, he pātai i pakaru i tētahi aituā.
2. MAR (Ngaro Matapōkere): ko te tūponotanga o te ngaronga o ngā raraunga e whakawhirinaki ana ki te taurangi i kitea, engari kāore e whakawhirinaki ki te uara ngaro tonu i muri i te whakahaere i ētahi atu taurangi. Hei tauira, he nui ake te tūponotanga o ngā kaiwhakautu taitamariki ki te ngaro i ngā pātai mō te moni whiwhi, engari kei te wātea te tau.
3. MNAR (Ngaro, Ehara i te mea he Matapōkere): Ko te tūponotanga o te ngaronga o ngā raraunga ka whakawhirinaki ki te uara ngaro tonu. Hei tauira, ko te hunga whai rawa nui te whiwhinga moni, kāore e whakaatu i ā rātou whiwhinga moni.
He haumaru ake te tātaitanga i raro i te MCAR/MAR. He maha ngā wā ka hiahiatia he tauira e whakaatu tika ana i ngā raraunga ngaro, he tātaritanga tairongo rānei mō te MNAR.
Tikanga Whakamātautau Māmā
1. Te Tohatoha/Waenga/Aratau
Ko te tikanga māmā rawa ko te whakakapi i ngā uara ngaro ki te toharite, ki te tau waenga rānei mō ngā taurangi tau, me te aratau mō ngā taurangi kāwai. Ko ngā painga: he māmā, he tere, ā, he maha ngā wā ka whakamahia hei tūāpapa. Ko ngā ngoikoretanga: ka taea te whakaiti i te rerekētanga me te whakapohehe i te tohatoha raraunga, inā koa mēnā he kore taurite te raraunga, he mea kei waho rānei. He kaha ake te tau waenga ki ngā tau o waho i te toharite..
2. Te Whakatakotoranga Pūmau
Ka whakakīia ngā uara ngaro ki tētahi pūmau motuhake, pērā i te 0, -1, te tapanga rānei "Kāore i te Mōhiotia". He mea whai hua tēnei ina he tikanga motuhake tō te uara (hei tauira, "kāore he tauwhitinga"), ina rānei me hoatu he tohu tāpiri ki te tauira hei whakaatu i te ngaronga. Heoi, mā te whiriwhiri i tētahi pūmau tūpono ka puta mai ngā tauira rūpahu.
3. Te Whakataunga Papa Wera
I roto i tētahi papa raraunga wera, ka whakakīia ngā uara ngaro mā te whakamahi i ngā uara mai i ētahi atu kitenga "rite" (ngā kaituku) i runga i ētahi taurangi matua. He rongonui tēnei tikanga i roto i ngā rangahau. Ka mau tonu ngā uara tūturu o ngā papa raraunga wera nā te mea ka hopukina e rātou ngā uara tuturu o ngā raraunga, engari he tairongo ngā hua ki te whakamāramatanga o te "rite" ā, ka taea te whakaputa i te rerekētanga i waenga i ngā tauira.
Tikanga Whakamātautau e Hangai ana ki te Tauira
4. Te Whakataurite Whakamuri
Ka matapaetia ngā uara ngaro mā te whakamahi i tētahi tauira whakatauira o ētahi atu taurangi. Mō ngā taurangi tau, ka taea te whakamahi i te whakatauira rārangi; mō ngā taurangi kāwai, ka taea te whakamahi. te whakahekenga arorau he maha-ira rānei. Painga: ka whakamahia ngā whanaungatanga i waenga i ngā taurangi. Huakore: mā te whakamahi i ngā uara matapae whakatau anake ka whakaiti i te rerekētanga nā te mea ka taka tika ngā uara tāpiri katoa ki te rārangi matapae. Hei whakatika i tēnei, ka tāpirihia ngā wāhanga matapōkere (hei tauira, ngā toenga) kia nui ake ai te pono.
5. k-Te Whakatau Tata ki ngā Hoa Tata (kNN)
Ka whakakīia e te tikanga kNN ngā uara ngaro i runga i te toharite (te pōti rānei) o ngā hoa tata k. Ko te tikanga, ka inehia te tata mā te tawhiti Euclidean, mā tētahi atu inenga rānei i muri i te whakataurite i ngā raraunga. Ko ōna painga ko te ngāwari me te whakaaro kāore he whanaungatanga raina. Ko ngā ngoikoretanga ko te utu nui o te rorohiko mō ngā huinga raraunga nui, te aro ki te tauine taurangi, me te hekenga o te mahi i runga i ngā raraunga ahu-teitei (kanga o te ahu).
6. Te Whakanui i te Tumanako (EM)
Ka whakatau tata te huarahi EM i ngā tawhā tauira (hei tauira, te toharite me te taurite mō ngā raraunga noa maha-taurangi) mā te whakaaro ki ngā uara ngaro hei taurangi huna. Ka tatauhia e te Hipanga E te tumanako o ngā uara ngaro i runga i ngā tawhā o nāianei, kātahi ka whakahoutia e te Hipanga M ngā tawhā i runga i ngā raraunga "katoa" e tumanakohia ana. He pakari te EM ki ētahi whakaaro tohatoha, engari ka uaua pea, ā, ka whakawhirinaki ki te tika o ngā whakaaro tauira.
Te Whakatakotoranga Maha: Te Paerewa Koura i roto i ngā Wāhanga Maha
7. Te Whakatakotoranga Maha (MI)
Ko te Tātaritanga Maha tetahi o ngā huarahi tino mātāpono ki te MAR. Engari i te whakaputa i tētahi huinga raraunga kotahi, ka whakaputa a MI i ngā huinga raraunga maha (hei tauira, 5–20) me ngā tātaritanga rerekē e whakaata ana i te koretake. Ka tātarihia motuhaketia ia huinga raraunga, kātahi ka whakakotahihia ngā hua mā te whakamahi i ngā ture a Rubin hei whiwhi i ngā whakatau tata me ngā hapa paerewa tika ake.
Ngā painga o te MI:
– Ka tautoko i te koretake o te whakapae.
– He tika ake mō te whakatau tatauranga (ngā wā whakawhirinaki, whakamātautau whakapae).
– He ngāwari mō ngā momo taurangi rerekē.
Ōna herenga:
– Te whakatinanatanga uaua ake.
– Me whai whakaaro tika me ngā whakatakotoranga tauira whakatauira.
– Mena he hapa kei roto i te MNAR, ka taea tonu te whakapae i te MI paerewa.
Te Whakataurite mō ngā Raupapa Wā me ngā Raraunga Wāhi
I roto i ngā raraunga raupapa wā, he maha ngā wā ka honoa kaha ngā uara ngaro ki ō rātou uara o mua me muri mai. He maha ngā wā ka whakamahia ngā tikanga pēnei i te whakarara raina, ngā splines, ngā tātari Kalman, ngā tauira ARIMA/State Space rānei. Mō ngā raraunga ā-wāhi, ka taea e ngā huarahi pēnei i te kriging me ngā tauira ā-wāhi te whakamahi i te tata whenua. He whai hua ēnei tikanga ina nui te hanganga wā/ā-wāhi, engari me tūpato ki ngā huringa ohorere (hei tauira, ngā ohorere ōhanga) ka taea te whakapohehe i te whakarara ngāwari.
Ngā Tikanga Pai mō te Kōwhiri i ngā Tikanga Whakatakotoranga
1. Whakahaerehia te tūhuratanga raraunga ngaro: tirohia te ōrau o ngā uara ngaro, te tauira o te ngaronga, me te mea e pā ana te ngaronga ki tētahi taurangi motuhake.
2. Wehewehea ngā raraunga whakangungu me ngā raraunga whakamātautau: whakahaerehia te whakatauira mā te "ako" mai i ngā raraunga whakangungu anake, kātahi ka whakamahia ki ngā raraunga whakamātautau hei karo i te turuturu raraunga.
3. Whakaarohia te momo taurangi: tau, kāwai, raupapa, whakauru rānei; he rerekē te tikanga tika.
4. Whakamahia ngā tohu ngaro: i ētahi wā ko te mōhiohio e ngaro ana i tētahi uara he tohu matapae; mā te tāpiri i ngā taurangi tohu ka taea te whakapai ake i te mahi a tētahi tauira matapae.
5. Aromatawaihia te pānga o te tātaitanga: whakatairitehia ngā tohatoha i mua/i muri i te tātaitanga, tirohia mēnā kua heke te rerekētanga, ā, whakamanahia te tauira.
6. Whakaritea te MI hei whakatau i te whakatau: ina ko te whāinga o te tātari he whakatau i ngā tawhā me te whakamātautau tatauranga, he pai ake te whakatau maha i te whakatau kotahi.
Whakamutunga
He wāhanga nui te tātaitanga o ngā rerengamahi tatauranga hou mō te whakahaere i ngā raraunga ngaro. He whai hua pea ngā tikanga māmā pēnei i te toharite/waenga hei tūāpapa, hei wāhi ngaro rānei, engari he maha ngā wā ka whakararu i te hanganga raraunga me te koretake. Ka whakamahia e ngā tikanga tauira pēnei i te whakatauira, te kNN, me te EM ngā whanaungatanga i waenga i ngā taurangi, ko te Tātaitanga Maha ia e whakarato ana i tētahi anga pakari mō te whakatau mā te whakaaro ki te koretake. Ko te whiriwhiri i te tikanga pai rawa atu e whakawhirinaki ana ki te tikanga raraunga ngaro (MCAR/MAR/MNAR), te whāinga tātari (matapae vs. whakatau), me ngā āhuatanga o ngā raraunga (raupapa wā, ā-wāhi, whakauru). Mā te huarahi tika, ka āwhina te tātaitanga ki te pupuri i te pono o te tātari, ā, ka puta he whakatau pono ake.
