Ngā Tatauranga i roto i te Ariā Kēmu
Ko te ariā kēmu he peka o te pāngarau e ako ana i te whakatau rautaki ina whakawhirinaki te putanga o tētahi kaitākaro ki ngā mahi a ētahi atu kaitākaro. He whānuitia te whakamahinga i roto i te ōhanga, te pakihi, te pūtaiao tōrangapū, te pūtaiao rorohiko, tae atu ki te koiora whanaketanga. Heoi, i roto i te mahi, he onge te "mārama" o ngā āhuatanga rautaki, ā, ka taea te tatau katoa mai i te whakaaro whaitake anake. Koinei te wāhi e whai wāhi nui ai ngā tatauranga: te āwhina ki te ine i te koretake, te whakatau tata i ngā whanonga a te hoa whawhai, te aromatawai i te whai huatanga o ngā rautaki, me te whakamātautau mēnā ka uru te tauira ariā kēmu ki ngā raraunga o te ao tūturu.
1. He aha i hiahiatia ai ngā tatauranga e te ariā kēmu?
I roto i ngā tauira ariā kēmu tawhito, he maha ngā wā ka tukuna mai he mōhiohio katoa ki a tātou: te rārangi o ngā kaitākaro, te huinga rautaki, me ngā utu (hua/ngaronga) mō ia huinga rautaki. Mā ēnei mōhiohio, ka taea e tātou te kimi i ngā otinga pēnei i te taurite Nash, ngā rautaki matua, ngā otinga iti rawa rānei. Heoi, i te ao tūturu, he maha ngā wā kāore e tino mōhiotia ana ēnei huānga:
1. Kāore i te mōhiotia te utu, he uaua rānei ki te ine. Hei tauira, i roto i te whakataetae utu i waenga i ngā kamupene, ehara te utu i te tau pumau, engari e whakawhirinaki ana ki te tono o te mākete, ngā utu whakaputa, te pānuitanga, me ētahi atu āhuatanga o waho.
2. Kāore i te tino tika te whanonga a te kaitākaro i ngā wā katoa. Ka taea e ngā kaitākaro te hē, te iti o ngā mōhiotanga, te pāngia rānei e ngā whakaaro taupatupatu.
3. He matapōkere, he haruru hoki ngā raraunga kua tirohia. Tērā pea ka kite noa tātou i te hītori o ngā mahi me ngā putanga, ehara i te mea ko ngā manakohanga tuturu.
4. Ka huri te taiao. Ko ngā rautaki e tino pai ana i tēnei rā, tērā pea ka iti ake te whai hua āpōpō nā ngā huringa o ngā kaupapa here, hangarau, ngā au rānei.
Mā ngā tatauranga ka taea te whakatau i tēnei āwangawanga: mai i te whakatau tata, te whakatau tata, te matapae, ki te ako mai i ngā raraunga (ariā kēmu e whakahaerehia ana e ngā raraunga).
2. Te aromatawai i te rautaki a te kaitākaro me te "whakapono"
He maha ngā tauira kēmu e whakamahi ana i ngā whakapono mō ngā mahi a te hoa whawhai. I ngā kēmu e whakahuatia ana, i ngā kēmu Bayesian rānei, me whakatau tata ngā kaitākaro:
– te tūponotanga o te whiriwhiri a te hoa whawhai i tētahi rautaki,
– momo hoa whawhai (hei tauira, "kaha" "mahi tahi" rānei),
– ngā huringa pea o te rautaki a te hoa whawhai i roto i te wā.
Koinei te wāhi e puta mai ai ngā ariā o te tūponotanga me ngā tatauranga. Hei tauira, ki te whiriwhiria e te hoa whawhai te rautaki A e 60 ngā wā i roto i te 100 rauna, ko te whakatau tata mō te tūponotanga ko te 0,6. Heoi, mā ngā tatauranga ka taea te whakamahi i tētahi huarahi matatini ake:
– Ngā wā whakawhirinaki hei ine i te koretake o te whakatau tata.
– Ngā tauira Bayesian (hei tauira, ngā Beta priors mō ngā tūponotanga mahi) hei whakau ake i ngā whakatau tata ina iti ngā raraunga.
– Ngā tauira Markovian, ngā tauira Markov huna rānei (HMM) hei whakaahua i ngā hoa whawhai e neke ana i waenga i ngā "aratau" rautaki, hei tauira, mai i te mahi tahi ki te whakataetae.
Mā te whakatau tata i te tohatoha o ngā mahi a te hoa whawhai, ka taea e te kaitākaro te whakawhanake i tētahi rautaki urupare pai ake e tika ake ana.
3. Ngā tatauranga i roto i ngā kēmu kāore i oti ngā mōhiohio (ngā kēmu Bayesian)
I ngā kēmu Bayesian, kāore ngā kaitākaro e mōhio ki ngā tawhā nui—pērā i ngā utu, ngā aromatawai, ngā manakohanga rānei a te hunga whakataetae—engari he tohatoha tūponotanga kei a rātou mō aua tawhā. Ko tētahi tauira matarohia ko te hokohoko: he aromatawai tūmataiti tā ia kaiuru mō te taonga e hokohokohia ana, ā, ka taea te ako i tēnei tohatoha aromatawai mai i ngā raraunga o mua.
E rua ngā mahi matua a ngā tatauranga:
1. Whakatauhia te tohatoha o ngā momo kaitākaro. Mā te whakamahi i ngā raraunga hokohoko o mua (ngā utu tono, ngā toa, ngā utu whakamutunga), ka taea e tātou te whakatau i te tohatoha o ngā aromatawai a ngā kaiuru.
2. Whakatikatikahia te tauira. He pai rawa te uru o te tauira hokohoko "utu-tuatahi" "utu-tuarua" rānei ki te whanonga raraunga? Ka taea e tātou te whakarite i ngā tauira mā te whakamahi i te tūponotanga, te AIC/BIC, te whakamana-whakawhiti rānei.
Nō reira, ehara i te mea he otinga ariā noa iho te ariā o te taurite Bayesian, engari ka taea hoki te hono atu ki ngā raraunga ā-wheako.
4. Te whakamātautau whakapae i roto i te whanonga rautaki
He maha ngā wā ka puta ngā matapae a te ariā kēmu: hei tauira, i roto i tētahi kēmu taurite, ka whiriwhiria e ngā kaitākaro ētahi pūwāhi taurite. Ka taea te whakamahi i ngā tatauranga hei whakamātautau mēnā he tika ēnei matapae i roto i ngā whakamātautau taiwhanga, i ngā raraunga mara rānei.
Hei tauira, i roto i te kēmu Prisoner's Dilemma, e matapaetia ana e te ariā tawhito te hurihanga hei rautaki matua. Heoi, i roto i ngā whakamātautau, he maha ngā tāngata e mahi tahi ana i roto i ngā rauna maha. Mā ngā tatauranga ka whakautu i te pātai:
– He nui ake te taumata o te mahi tahi i tā te ariā i matapae ai?
– He aha ngā āhuatanga e whakanui ake ana i te mahi tahi (ngā whakatenatena, te whakawhitiwhiti kōrero, te whiu)?
– Ka pāngia ngā hua e ngā rerekētanga ahurea, e ngā rerekētanga rōpū rānei?
Ko ngā tikanga e whakamahia whānuitia ana ko ngā whakamātautau ōwehenga, ngā whakamātautau chi-square, te whakatauira logistic, me ngā tauira pānga-whakauru mō ngā raraunga tāruarua.
5. Ngā tauira whakamuri me te ōhanga mō ngā utu me ngā rautaki
I roto i ngā horopaki pakihi me te ōhanga, he maha ngā taurangi e pāngia ai ngā utu. Hei tauira, ko ngā hua o tētahi kamupene ehara i te mea ko ngā utu i whiriwhiria e te kamupene me ngā kaiwhakataetae anake, engari ko ngā moni whiwhi a te kaihoko, te wā o te tau, ngā utu whakahaere, me ngā whakatairanga anō hoki.
Mā ngā tatauranga ka whakaratohia ngā taputapu pēnei i:
– Te whakatauira rārangi/kore-rārangi hei hono i te rautaki ki ngā putanga.
– He tauira raraunga a te rōpū hei whakatairite i ngā kamupene rerekē i roto i te wā.
– Ngā taurangi taputapu ina he raruraru take-me-pānga (endogenity), hei tauira, ka awehia te utu e te tono, ā, ka awehia hoki te tono.
Mā ngā tauira ohanga, ka taea e tātou te whakatau tata i ngā "pūnga utu" tūturu ake, kātahi ka whakauru i aua whakatau tata ki roto i te tātari ariā kēmu.
6. Te ako i roto i ngā kēmu: mai i te raraunga ki te rautaki
I tēnei wā o te raraunga me te rorohiko, he maha ngā wā ka hono te ariā kēmu ki te ako mīhini. He maha ngā āhuatanga rautaki o ēnei rā—pērā i te pānuitanga matihiko, ngā taunakitanga utu hihiri, te haumarutanga tukutuku rānei—e whai wāhi ana ngā kaitākaro ki te ako mai i ngā raraunga.
Ko ētahi ariā nui e whakakotahi ana i ngā tatauranga me te ariā kēmu ko:
– Kaipahua maha-pū: ka whiriwhiri te kaihoko i ngā mahi hei whakataurite i te tūhuratanga (te rapu mōhiohio) me te whakamahi kino (te whakanui i te utu).
– Te ako whakapakari (RL): ka ako ngā kaihoko i ngā rautaki tino pai mā te whakamātautau me te hapa i roto i tētahi taiao e uru atu ai ētahi atu kaihoko.
– Te ako tuihono i roto i ngā kēmu: ngā rauropi pēnei i ngā taumaha whakarea hei whakatata atu ki te taurite i roto i ngā kēmu e whakahuatia ana.
Ko te tikanga, ka whakamahia ngā tatauranga hei whakahou i ngā whakatau tata i runga i ngā kitenga, ko te ariā kēmu ia ka āwhina i te mārama ki ngā taunekeneke rautaki i waenga i ngā kaihoko ako.
7. Te whakatauira Monte Carlo mō te aromatawai rautaki
He maha ngā wā he uaua rawa ngā kēmu, kāore e taea te tātari. Hei tauira, he maha ngā kaitākaro, he nui ngā wāhi rautaki, he uaua rānei ngā mahi tāruarua. I ēnei wā, ka whakaratohia e ngā whakatauira he piriti kaha.
Ko ngā tikanga Monte Carlo e whakamahia ana hei:
– te whakatauira i ngā āhuatanga maha o ngā mahi a te hoa whawhai,
– te koretake o te whakatauira i ngā tawhā,
– te ine i te tohatoha o ngā putanga rautaki (kaua ko ngā uara e tumanakohia ana anake).
Mā te whakatauira, ka taea e tātou te aromatawai i te mōrearea: tera pea he nui te utu toharite o te rautaki A engari he nui te rerekētanga, ko te rautaki B ia he pumau ake. Ko te kōwhiringa rautaki ka whakawhirinaki ki ngā manakohanga mōrearea a te kaitākaro.
8. Ngā tono o te ao tūturu: mai i ngā hokohoko ki te haumarutanga tukutuku
E kitea ana te whakakotahitanga o ngā tatauranga me te ariā kēmu i ngā wāhanga e whai ake nei:
1. Ngā hokohoko tuihono: te whakatauira i ngā whanonga a te kaitono, te matapae i ngā moni whiwhi, me te hoahoa i ngā tikanga hokohoko.
2. Whakataetae utu: te whakatau tata i ngā tauhohenga a ngā kaiwhakataetae ki ngā huringa utu mā te whakamahi i ngā raraunga o mua.
3. Haumarutanga whatunga: te whakatauira i ngā kaiwhakaeke me ngā kaiwawao hei kaitākaro; ka whakamahia ngā tatauranga hei kimi i te urutomo me te aromatawai i te tūponotanga o te whakaeke.
4. Koiora whanaketanga: ka tātarihia ngā rautaki oranga me te whakaputa uri hei kēmu; ka whakamahia ngā raraunga taupori hei whakamātautau i ngā tauira whanaketanga.
5. Kaupapa here tūmatanui: ka tātarihia ngā pakanga pānga i waenga i ngā rōpū me te rautaki; ka āwhina ngā raraunga rangahau me ngā whakamātautau kaupapa here ki te whakatau tata i ngā manakohanga me ngā urupare.
9. Ngā wero me ngā herenga
Ahakoa te kaha o te whakamahinga o ngā tatauranga i roto i te ariā kēmu, he maha ngā wero e pā ana ki te whakamahinga o ngā tatauranga:
– Ngā herenga raraunga: tera pea he iti, he kore rānei i oti ngā raraunga rautaki.
– Te raruraru tautuhi: ka taea e ētahi tauira rerekē te whakamārama i ngā raraunga ōrite.
– Ngā whanonga uaua o te tangata: he uaua ki te whakauru i ngā āhuatanga hinengaro, ngā tikanga pāpori, me ngā kare ā-roto ki roto i ngā tauira pāngarau māmā.
– Te whakarerekētanga o te kāwanatanga: ka taea te whakarerekē i ngā rautaki me ngā taiao, ā, kāore e whai tikanga ngā tauira tawhito.
Nō reira, ko te huarahi pai rawa atu ko te whakakotahi i te ariā, ngā raraunga, ngā whakamātautau, me ngā whakatauira.
Whakamutunga
Ka tautokona tetahi e ngā tatauranga me te ariā kēmu. Ka tukuna e te ariā kēmu he anga mō te mārama ki ngā taunekeneke rautaki, ko ngā tatauranga ia ka whakarato i ngā taputapu mō te whakatau tata i ngā tawhā, te ako i ngā whanonga mai i ngā raraunga, te whakamātautau i ngā matapae tauira, me te whakahaere i te koretake. I roto i te ao tūturu o ngā mōhiohio kāore i oti me ngā huringa hihiri, ka piki haere te hiranga o tēnei whakaurunga. Mā te āwhina o te whakatau tatauranga, te whakatauira, me te ako mīhini, ehara i te mea he taputapu tātari noa iho te ariā kēmu engari he huarahi mahi hoki mō te hoahoa i ngā rautaki, ngā kaupapa here, me ngā pūnaha whai hua i roto i ngā taiao whakataetae me te mahi tahi.
Ki te hiahia koe, ka taea e au te tāpiri i tētahi tauira tau māmā (hei tauira, he kēmu whakatau utu e rua ngā kamupene) me te tāpiri rānei i tētahi rārangi tohutoro/pukapuka me ngā tohutoro hautaka hei whakapakari i te tuhinga.
