Izibalo Ezimisweni Zokuziphatha Zocwaningo
Izimiso zokuziphatha zocwaningo zivame ukuxoxwa ngazo ngokwemvume yabahlanganyeli, ubumfihlo bedatha, kanye nobuqotho bomcwaningi. Kodwa-ke, indawo eyodwa evame ukunganakwa naphezu kwendima yayo ebalulekile ekunqumeni ikhwalithi kanye nokulunga kwemiphumela yocwaningo yizibalo. Izibalo aziyona nje ithuluzi "lokuphula izinombolo," kodwa kunalokho ziyisisekelo se-logic yesayensi esiza abacwaningi ukuthi bafinyelele iziphetho ezifanele. Lapho izibalo zisetshenziswa kabi—kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ngokungazi noma ngenhloso—umthelela udlulela ngale kwamaphutha obuchwepheshe kuya ekuphulweni kokuziphatha, ukudukisa abafundi, abenzi bezinqubomgomo, ngisho nomphakathi kabanzi.
Kungani izibalo zihlobene ngqo nokuziphatha?
Ngokuyisisekelo, ucwaningo luhlose ukukhiqiza ulwazi olufanele. Lokhu kufaneleka kuncike kakhulu endleleni idatha eqoqwa, ihlaziywe futhi ibikwe ngayo. Izibalo zidlala indima kuzo zonke izigaba ezintathu. Ukwakheka kwesampula okungafanele, ukuhlaziywa okunephutha, noma ukubika okukhohlisayo kungaholela eziphethweni zocwaningo ezinephutha. Esimweni sokuziphatha, la maphutha ayingozi ngoba angaholela ezinqumweni ezimbi: isibonelo, ukukhethwa kwezindlela zokwelapha ezingasebenzi kahle, izinqubomgomo zomphakathi ezingafanele, noma ukucwaswa komphakathi ngenxa yokuchazwa kwedatha okuchemile.
Izimiso zokuziphatha zezibalo nazo zihlobene nokungakhethi. Isibonelo, lapho ucwaningo luphetha ngokuthi amaqembu athile “asengozini enkulu” noma “angenazo izinzuzo eziningi” ngaphandle kokuhlaziywa okwanele, izibalo zingaba ithuluzi eliqinisa ubandlululo. Ngakho-ke, abacwaningi kumele baqonde ukuthi ukucubungula idatha akuyona inqubo engathathi hlangothi; kudinga ukwethembeka kwendlela kanye nokunakekelwa kokuhumusha.
Izimiso zokuziphatha esigabeni sokuhlela: ukwakheka kocwaningo kanye nosayizi wesampula
Izinkinga zokuziphatha zivame ukuvela ngisho nangaphambi kokuba idatha iqoqwe. Isibonelo esisodwa ukunquma usayizi wesampula. Isampula encane kakhulu ingabangela ukuthi ucwaningo lungabi namandla anele okuthola umphumela wangempela. Ngenxa yalokho, abacwaningi bangaphetha ngokuthi akukho mphumela uma ukhona—lokhu kungaba yingozi entuthukweni yesayensi nasezinqumweni ezisebenzayo. Ngokuphambene nalokho, isampula enkulu kakhulu ingaba yinkinga ngokokuziphatha, ikakhulukazi ocwaningweni oluhilela izingozi kubahlanganyeli, njengoba luveza abantu abaningi ezingozini ezingadingekile.
Izibalo zinikeza amathuluzi anjengokuhlaziywa kwamandla kanye nokubalwa kosayizi wesampula ukuqinisekisa ucwaningo olusebenzayo nolunesimilo. Empeleni, abacwaningi kumele baklame izifundo "ezanele" ukuphendula umbuzo wocwaningo ngaphandle kokuchitha izinsiza futhi ngaphandle kokubeka ababambiqhaza engcupheni engalingani.
Ukuziphatha esigabeni sokuqoqwa kwedatha: ukubandlulula kanye nekhwalithi yokulinganisa
Ukuqoqwa kwedatha okubi akugcini nje ngokubangela idatha "enomsindo", kodwa futhi kungabonisa ukungalungi nokungathembeki. Isibonelo, ukukhetha okubandlululayo kwenzeka lapho abacwaningi beqasha kuphela ababambiqhaza abasekela umbono wabo noma abatholakala kalula, bese behlanganisa imiphumela njengokungathi imele umphakathi obanzi. Izibalo zifundisa imiqondo yokumelela, ukungahleliwe, kanye nezindlela zokuthatha amasampula ukuze kwandiswe ukwethembeka kwemiphumela.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ikhwalithi yethuluzi lokulinganisa nayo ibalulekile. Ukusebenzisa uhlu lwemibuzo olungavumelekile noma olungathembekile bese ufinyelela iziphetho eziqinile kuyinkinga ngokokuziphatha. Abacwaningi banesibopho sokuhlola ukufaneleka nokuthembeka kwethuluzi, noma okungenani baveze obala mayelana nokulinganiselwa kwalo. Izibalo zisiza ukuhlola ukuvumelana kwangaphakathi, iphutha lokulinganisa, kanye nokwehluka kwedatha, okuvumela abafundi ukuba baqonde amandla obufakazi obunikeziwe.
Izimiso zokuziphatha esigabeni sokuhlaziya: i-p-hacking, i-HARKing, kanye nokukhetha ama-cherry
Enkathini yokushicilelwa okusheshayo kanye nengcindezi yokukhiqiza okutholakele "okubalulekile", ukwephulwa okuvamile kwezimiso zokuziphatha kwezibalo yi-p-hacking. I-P-hacking ibhekisela emkhubeni wokuzama ukuhlaziya okuningi, iziguquguquko eziningi, noma izindlela eziningi zokucubungula idatha kuze kutholakale inani le-p "elibalulekile" ngokwezibalo. Lo mkhuba ungenziwa ngamabomu noma ngokungazi, kodwa umphumela uyafana: ukwandisa amathuba okuthola "okutholakele" empeleni okuwukushayisana nje.
Ngaphandle kokukhwabanisa nge-p, kukhona i-HARKing (Hypothesizing After Results are Known), ehilela ukwakha umbono ngemva kokubona imiphumela bese uyibika njengokungathi yayihleliwe kusukela ekuqaleni. Lokhu kudukisa abafundi ukuba bacabange ukuthi okutholakele kuhlolwe ngokucophelela kuyilapho empeleni kuhlolisiswa.
Ukukhetha ama-cherry nakho kuyinkinga: abacwaningi babika kuphela izinto eziguquguqukayo, amaqembu amancane, noma izikhathi ezisekela indaba ethile, kuyilapho befihla idatha ephikisanayo. Ngokwezimiso zokuziphatha, ukucaca kubalulekile. Ukuhlaziya okuhlolayo kulungile, kodwa kufanele kubhekwe njengokuhlolisisayo, hhayi okuqinisekisiweyo.
Izimiso zokuziphatha zokuhumusha: ukubaluleka akulona iqiniso eliphelele
Iphutha elivamile ukucabangela umphumela "obalulekile" njengobufakazi obuqinile bokuthi ubudlelwano bembangela nomphumela buqinisekisiwe. Kodwa-ke, ukubaluleka kwezibalo kubonisa nje ukuthi idatha etholiwe ayivamile uma i-null hypothesis iyiqiniso, ngaphansi kwemibono ethile. Akusho ngokuzenzakalelayo ukuthi umphumela mkhulu, ubalulekile, noma ufanelekile.
Yingakho ukubika ubukhulu bomphumela kanye nezikhawu zokuzethemba kuyinkinga yokuziphatha. Ubukhulu bomphumela bunikeza inkomba yobukhulu bomthelela, kuyilapho izikhawu zokuzethemba zibonisa ukungaqiniseki kwesilinganiso. Ngaphandle kwalolu lwazi, abafundi bangadukiswa yinombolo ye-p kuphela. Ocwaningweni lwezokwelapha, isibonelo, umphumela obalulekile ngokwezibalo ungaba mncane kangangokuthi ungabi namsebenzi ngokwezokwelapha. Ukwenza lula imiphumela ibe "nomphumela" noma "awunawo" kuyindlela yokunciphisa engadukisa.
Izimiso zokuziphatha zokubika: ukucaca, ukukopisha, kanye nokufinyelela idatha
Izimiso zokuziphatha zezibalo nazo zidinga ukucaca ezindleleni zokubika. Abacwaningi kufanele bachaze ukuthi idatha yahlanzwa kanjani, ukuthi izinto ezingaphandle zaphathwa kanjani, ukuthi yiziphi izibikezelo ezahlolwa, nokuthi yiziphi izinhlobo zezibalo ezikhethiwe kanye nezizathu zazo. Le mikhuba isiza abafundi ukuhlola ikhwalithi yocwaningo futhi bakwazi ukwenza ukukopisha.
Ezindaweni eziningi, ukunyakaza kwesayensi evulekile kuya ngokuya kuqashelwa njengendlela yokuziphatha. Ukwabelana ngedatha (ngenkathi kugcinwa ubumfihlo), ukwabelana ngekhodi yokuhlaziya, kanye nokubhalisa kusengaphambili kunganciphisa izinsolo zokukhwabanisa. Kodwa-ke, ukuvuleleka kumele kuhambisane nokuvikelwa kobunikazi babahlanganyeli, ikakhulukazi lapho kuhileleke idatha ebucayi njengempilo, izintandokazi zezepolitiki, noma izimo zomnotho.
Ukuziphatha okuhle ekuboniseni idatha: ukwethembeka ekwethuleni izinombolo
Amagrafu namathebula anamandla okukholisa. Ngakho-ke, ukubona okudukisayo kwakha ukwephulwa kokuziphatha. Izibonelo zifaka phakathi ukusika izimbazo kushadi lebha ukuze umehluko ubonakale umangalisa kakhulu, ukukhetha isikali esingalingani, noma ukukhipha amaphuzu athile edatha kugrafu ngaphandle kwencazelo. Ukubona okubonakalayo kufanele kusize abafundi baqonde idatha, hhayi ukwakha imibono yabo ngezindlela zobuqili. Isimiso sokuziphatha lapha silula: ukwethula idatha ngendlela elinganayo, ecacile, futhi eqinisekisiwe.
Ukungqubuzana kwezintshisekelo kanye nokucindezelwa kokushicilela
Izibalo azikho ngaphandle komongo wezenhlalo wocwaningo. Abacwaningi bangase babhekane nengcindezi evela kubaxhasi, izikhungo, noma izinhloso zokushicilela. Ukungqubuzana kwezintshisekelo kungathonya ukukhetha nokuhumusha kokuhlaziya. Ngakho-ke, izimemezelo zokungqubuzana kwezintshisekelo kanye nokuzimela kokuhlaziya kuyizingxenye ezibalulekile zokuziphatha kocwaningo. Ezimweni ezinjalo, izibalo zingasetshenziswa "ukuhlobisa" imiphumela ukuze kuhlangatshezwane nokulindela. Ngakho-ke, ukuqapha kokuziphatha okuvela kumakomidi ocwaningo, ukubuyekezwa kontanga, kanye nesiko lesayensi elinempilo kusebenza njengezivikelo ekuziphatheni kabi.
Ukuhlanganisa ikhono lezibalo kanye nobuqotho besayensi
Ekugcineni, izibalo zokuziphatha kocwaningo azigcini nje ngokugwema ukukhwabanisa, kodwa futhi ziphathelene nekhono. Ukwehluleka ukuqonda izindlela kungaholela eziphethweni ezingalungile, imiphumela yazo emibi njengokukhohlisa. Ngakho-ke, ukuqeqeshwa okwanele kwezibalo, ukubonisana nabacwaningi bezibalo, kanye nomkhuba wokuhlola izibikezelo zemodeli kuyingxenye yomthwalo wemfanelo womcwaningi wokuziphatha.
Ucwaningo lwezimiso zokuziphatha luthembekile ngedatha, luvulekele ukungaqiniseki, futhi luqaphile ekufinyeleleni iziphetho. Izibalo zinikeza ulimi lokuveza lokhu kungaqiniseki ngendlela elinganisekayo. Uma zisetshenziswa kahle, izibalo ziqinisa ubuqotho besayensi. Uma zisetshenziswa kabi, zingaba ithuluzi elikhohlisayo. Ngakho-ke, ukuqonda izibalo akuyona nje into edingekayo kwezobuchwepheshe, kodwa ukuzibophezela kokuziphatha okuhle ekugcineni ukwethenjwa komphakathi nokuqinisekisa ukuthi ulwazi olukhiqizwayo luwusizo ngempela.
