Ngā Tikanga Matapae i te Hiahia o te Hua
Pendahuluan
Ko te matapae i te hiahia o ngā hua ko te tukanga o te matapae i te nui o tētahi hua ka hiahiatia e te mākete ā muri ake nei. He mea nui tēnei tukanga mō te whakahaere mekameka tuku , te whakaputa, me te arotau i ngā rawa. Mā te matapae tika i te hiahia ka āwhina i ngā kamupene ki te karo i te nui rawa o ngā taonga me te korenga o ngā taonga, ā, ka taea e ēnei te arahi ki ngā mate pūtea. Ka matapakihia e tēnei tuhinga ngā tikanga matapae i te hiahia o ngā hua ka taea e ngā kamupene te whakamahi.
Ngā Tikanga Matapae Tauanga
Ka whakamahia e ngā tikanga matapae tauanga ngā raraunga o mua me te tātari tatauranga hei matapae i te tono. He tika ake ēnei tikanga ina wātea ngā raraunga o mua, ā, e tika ana hoki ki ngā āhuatanga o nāianei.
1. Te Toharite Nekehanga
Mā te tikanga toharite neke ka whakangawari i ngā raraunga tono o mua hei matapae i te tono ā muri ake nei. Mā te tatau i te tono toharite mō ētahi wā tata nei ka whakamahia tēnei uara hei matapae mō te wā e whai ake nei.
Te Hiranga:
– He māmā noa iho, he ngāwari hoki te whakatinana.
– Ka whakangawari i ngā piki me ngā heke o ngā raraunga kia mārama ake ai te āhua o ngā au.
Ngā ngoikoretanga:
– Kāore e tika ana mō ngā raraunga he au, he tauira ā-wā rānei.
– Kāore e tere te aro atu ki ngā huringa ohorere o ngā raraunga.
2. Te Whakamaeneene Taupūnga
Ka paunatia e te tikanga whakamāeneene taupū ngā raraunga o mua mā te hoatu i te taumaha teitei ake ki ngā raraunga hou. He maha ngā momo rerekētanga o tēnei tikanga, tae atu ki te whakamāeneene taupū ngāwari, te whakamāeneene taupū takirua, me te whakamāeneene taupū Holt-Winters.
Te Hiranga:
– He tere ake te aro atu ki ngā huringa raraunga hou atu i ngā toharite neke.
– He maha ngā tikanga e wātea ana hei whakahaere i ngā au me ngā tauira o ngā wā.
Ngā ngoikoretanga:
– Me whakatau i ngā tawhā, he uaua pea te arotau.
3. Tātari Whakamuri
Ko te tātaritanga whakarara he waihanga i tētahi tauira tatauranga e whakaahua ana i te whanaungatanga i waenga i te tono hua me tētahi, neke atu rānei o ngā taurangi motuhake (hei tauira, te utu, te moni whiwhi, ngā au ohaoha). Ko te tauira māmā rawa ko te whakarara raina, engari ka taea hoki te whakamahi i te whakarara maha mō ngā taurangi uaua ake.
Te Hiranga:
– Ka taea te hopu i te whanaungatanga i waenga i te tono hua me ngā āhuatanga o waho.
– He ngāwari ki te whakahaere raraunga me ngā au me ngā tauira o ngā wā.
Ngā ngoikoretanga:
– Me whai tātaritanga hōhonu me te whakatauira.
– He ngoikore ki ngā whakapae kāore i te tika i roto i ngā raraunga.
4. Tauira ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average)
He tauira matapae matatini a ARIMA e whakakotahi ana i ngā āhuatanga o te tauira autoregressive, te tauira moving smoothing, me te tauira differencing hei whakahaere i ngā raraunga me ngā au me ngā tauira o te wā.
Te Hiranga:
– Ka taea te whakahaere i ngā tauira raraunga rerekē pēnei i ngā au me ngā āhuatanga o te wā.
– He tino tika mēnā ka whakamahia, ka whakatūria hoki ki te tika.
Ngā ngoikoretanga:
– Me mārama hōhonu ki ngā tatauranga me te tātaritanga uaua.
– He tino uaua te tukanga tautuhi me te whakatū i ngā tauira.
Ngā Tikanga Matapae Kounga
Ko ngā tikanga matapae kounga e whakawhirinaki ana ki te whakatau, te whakaaro, me te māramatanga, kaua ki ngā raraunga o mua. He tikanga tēnei e whakamahia ana i ngā wā kāore e wātea ana, kāore rānei e whai tikanga ngā raraunga o mua.
1. Tikanga Delphi
Kei roto i tēnei tikanga he rōpū tohunga e tuku ana i ā rātou matapae mō te hiahia o ngā hua, me te kore ingoa. Whai muri i ētahi wāhanga kōrero me ngā whakatikatika, ka whakatikatikaina ngā matapae kia puta ai he whakaae tahi a te rōpū.
Te Hiranga:
– Ka taea te wikitoria i te whakaaro pākiki o te tangata takitahi mā te whakaae tahi a te rōpū.
– Ka taea te whakamahi ina ngaro ngā raraunga hītori, kāore rānei e tika ana.
Ngā ngoikoretanga:
– He mea e pau ana te wā, ā, he nui hoki te utu nā te mea he maha ngā tohunga e uru mai ana.
– Ko ngā hua ka whakawhirinaki ki te tohungatanga me te mōhiotanga o ngā tohunga.
2. Te Rōpū Hoko
Ko tēnei tikanga he kohikohi i ngā whakatau tata o te tono mai i ngā kaihoko e taunekeneke tika ana ki ngā kiritaki. He māramatanga motuhake ā rātou ki ngā whanonga kiritaki me ngā au o te mākete.
Te Hiranga:
– Te whakarato i ngā mōhiotanga tika mai i te hunga kei mua i te mākete.
Ngā ngoikoretanga:
– Ka pāngia e te whakaaro hē me te kore tika mēnā kāore ngā kaihoko e whai whakaaro pono.
– Ko te kounga o ngā matapae e whakawhirinaki ana ki te kounga o ngā mōhiohio mai i te ope hokohoko.
3. Rangahau Kaihoko
Ka kohia tika e tēnei rangahau ngā raraunga mai i ngā kiritaki mō ā rātou hiahia me ngā hiahia hoko ā muri ake nei. He tino whai hua tēnei tikanga mō ngā hua hou, mō ngā mākete hou rānei.
Te Hiranga:
– Ka whakarato māramatanga tika mai i te mākete ūnga.
– He mea whai hua mō ngā hua hou, mō ngā huringa rānei o te rautaki hua.
Ngā ngoikoretanga:
– Ka nui te utu, ka roa hoki te wā e pau ana.
– Ka pā pea ngā hapa tauira, ngā whakautu tinihanga rānei ki ngā hua.
Te Kōwhiri i te Tikanga Tika
Ko te whiriwhiri i te tikanga tika me mārama pai ki ngā āhuatanga o te hua, te momo raraunga e wātea ana, me te horopaki o te mākete. Anei ētahi whakaaro hei whakaaroaro māu i te wā e whiriwhiri ana i tētahi tikanga matapae:
1. Ngā Āhuatanga o te Hua: Ko ngā hua he poto te huringa ora, tera pea he rerekē ngā tikanga matapae e hiahiatia ana i ngā hua he roa te huringa ora.
2. Ngā Raraunga Hītori: Ka nui te pānga o te wātea me te kounga o ngā raraunga hītori ki te whiriwhiri i te tikanga. Mā ngā raraunga katoa me te tika ka taea te whakamahi i ngā tikanga tauanga pēnei i te ARIMA, te tātari whakatauira rānei.
3. Ngā Tauira o te Tono: Mā te mārama ki ngā tauira o te tono pēnei i ngā au, ngā āhuatanga o te wā, ngā huringa rānei ka āwhina i te whiriwhiri i te tikanga tino tika.
4. Ngā Rauemi me te Tohungatanga: Me rite te uauatanga o te tikanga i whiriwhiria ki ngā rauemi me te tohungatanga o te kamupene.
5. Ngāwari me te Urutau: Mā te tikanga ka taea te urutau ki ngā huringa o te mākete, te whakauru rānei i ngā tauira tono e huri haere ana, ka pai ake pea ngā hua mō te wā roa.
Whakamutunga
He mea nui te matapae i te tono hua i roto i te mekameka tuku me te whakahaere rawa. Mā te mārama ki ngā tikanga matapae me te whiriwhiri i te mea tika mō tētahi āhuatanga motuhake ka āwhina i ngā kamupene ki te matapae tika ake i te tono, te whakaiti i ngā utu, me te whakapai ake i te pai o te kiritaki. He painga me ngā ngoikoretanga o ngā tikanga tauanga me ngā tikanga kounga, ā, he maha ngā wā ka taea e te whakakotahitanga o ētahi tikanga te whakarato i ngā hua tino tika me te pono.
