Ithiyori Yokubhekana Namaqiniso Ebudlelwaneni Bamazwe Ngamazwe
Ithiyori ye-Realism ingenye yezindlela ezinethonya kakhulu zokutadisha ubudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe (IR). I-Realism isiza ukuchaza ukuthi kungani amazwe evame ukwenza ngokuncintisana, ukuthi kungani izimpi ziqhubeka naphezu kokuba khona kwezikhungo zamazwe ngamazwe, nokuthi kungani ukuphepha kwezwe kuvame ukuba yinto eza kuqala kunokubambisana komhlaba wonke. Ngokusekelwe ekucabangeni ukuthi umphakathi wamazwe ngamazwe awunalo igunya eliphakeme elikwazi ukuphoqa wonke amazwe ukuba athobele, i-Realism ibheka ubudlelwano phakathi kwamazwe njengendawo yokulwela amandla okuqhubekayo.
Ukuqonda kanye Nemibono Eyisisekelo Yobuqiniso
Ngokuvamile, ukuba ngokoqobo kugcizelela imibono emithathu eyisisekelo. Okokuqala, uhlelo lwamazwe ngamazwe alunawo umbuso. Igama elithi "Anarchy" lapha alisho isiphithiphithi, kodwa kunalokho ukungabikho kukahulumeni womhlaba wonke okwazi ukuphoqelela imithetho ephelele. Ngenxa yalokho, izifundazwe kumele zithembele kuzo (ukuzisiza) ukuze zisinde.
Okwesibili, izifundazwe yizona eziyinhloko kwezepolitiki zamazwe ngamazwe. Naphezu kokuba khona kwezinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe, izinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe, kanye nezinhlangano ezingezona ezikahulumeni, ubuqiniso bubheka izifundazwe njengezisenamandla amakhulu okusebenzisa amandla, ukwakha inqubomgomo yezangaphandle , kanye nokwenza izinqumo zamasu.
Okwesithathu, izintshisekelo zesizwe—ikakhulukazi ukusinda nokuvikeleka—yimigomo eyinhloko yombuso. Umbono ongokoqobo uphawula ukuthi ukuziphatha kanye nemibono emihle kuvame ukuba yingxenye yombuso lapho umbuso uzizwa usongelwa. Ezimweni ezingalawuleki, amazwe athambekele ekubaleni ngokunengqondo: ukuthi yiziphi izinqubomgomo eziqinisa isikhundla sawo, ezisenza sibe buthaka.
Izimpande Zomlando Zobuqiniso
Ubuqiniso abuyona inkolelo-mbono entsha. Imibono yobuqiniso ingalandelelwa emuva emisebenzini yakudala efana nethi "Peloponnesian War" kaThucydides, ekhombisa indlela amandla nokwesaba okwakha ngayo izinqumo zezepolitiki. Enkulumweni edumile kaMelos, uThucydides uqokomisa ukucabanga okunzima kwezombusazwe zamandla: abanamandla benza konke abangakwenza, kanti ababuthakathaka babekezelela lokho okumele bakwenze.
Abanye abacabangi, njengoNiccolò Machiavelli, bagcizelele ukubaluleka kwamandla nokuhlakanipha kwezepolitiki encwadini ethi The Prince. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, uThomas Hobbes uchaze “isimo semvelo” esigcwele ukungaqiniseki kanye nokungqubuzana—isithombe esivame ukufaniswa nesimiso samazwe ngamazwe ngabantu abacabanga ngendlela yanamuhla.
Ekhulwini lama-20, ubuqiniso baqala ukuvelela ngemva kokuhluleka kwemibono yangemva kweMpi Yezwe I, eyayikholelwa ukuthi izingxoxo ezivulekile kanye nezikhungo zamazwe ngamazwe zingavimbela impi. IMpi Yezwe II yaba ubufakazi obunzima bokuthi izinhloso ezinhle azanele ngaso sonke isikhathi, nokuthi ubudlova bungavela lapho ibhalansi yamandla iphazamiseka.
Ubuqiniso Bendabuko: Amandla Nemvelo Yomuntu
Ubuqiniso bezinto zakudala, obuvame ukuhlotshaniswa noHans J. Morgenthau, bugcizelela ukuthi izimpande zezingxabano zomhlaba wonke zivela ekuthambekeleni kwemvelo yabantu kokufuna amandla. Ngokwalo mbono, abaholi kanye nezifundazwe abakwazi ukubalekela ngokuphelele isifiso sokuthola ithonya, udumo, kanye nokubusa. Ezombusazwe zomhlaba wonke ekugcineni ziphathelene nezombusazwe zamandla.
UMorgenthau waphikisana ngokuthi izintshisekelo zesizwe zichazwa ngokwamandla. Lokhu kusho ukuthi inqubomgomo yezwe yangaphandle izohlala ikhathalela ukugcina noma ukuthuthukisa isikhundla sayo esilinganiselwe. Kulesi simo , ukuziphatha akunakwa ngokuphelele kodwa kumele kulungiswe ngokweqiniso. Izenzo ezibhekwa njengezilungile ngokokuziphatha zingaba yingozi uma zisongela ukuphepha kwesizwe.
I-Neorealism: Isakhiwo Sesistimu Yomhlaba Wonke
Ngasekupheleni kwekhulu lama-20, uKenneth Waltz wethula i-neorealism (noma i-structural realism). Ngokungafani ne-classical realism, eyayigcizelela imvelo yomuntu, i-neorealism igcizelela isakhiwo sesistimu yomhlaba wonke njengembangela eyinhloko yokuncintisana. Ngenxa yokuthi ayikho igunya elibusayo eliphakeme, amazwe—kokubili amademokhrasi kanye nama-authoritarians—abhekene nezingcindezi ezifanayo: kumele aqinisekise ukuphepha, alindele izinsongo, futhi anciphise ubuthakathaka.
Ku-neorealism, ukusatshalaliswa kwamandla (isb., i-unipolar, i-bipolar, noma i-multipolar) kuyisici esibalulekile esinquma ukuzinza. Isibonelo, inkathi yeMpi Yomshoshaphansi ivame ukubhekwa njengohlelo lwe-bipolar (i-US ne-Soviet Union). Abanye abantu abakholelwa ezeni bathi i-bipolar idala ukuzinza okulinganiselwe ngoba ukubalwa kwamandla kucacile, ukubambisana kuqiniswe kakhulu, futhi ingozi yokubala kabi ingalawuleka kangcono kunasesimisweni se-multipolar.
Imiqondo Eyinhloko Ekubuqinisweni Kweqiniso
1. Amandla
Amandla angaba ezempi, ezomnotho, ezobuchwepheshe, noma ezombangazwe. Ubuqiniso bubheka amandla njengethuluzi eliyinhloko lokuvikela izintshisekelo zesizwe. Nakuba izifundazwe zingasebenzisa "amandla athambile," ubuqiniso buvame ukubeka phambili amakhono okuphoqelela njengento enqumayo.
2. Ibhalansi Yamandla
Lo mqondo uchaza ukuthi lapho izwe elilodwa liba namandla kakhulu, amanye amazwe azozama ukulinganisela ngokusebenzisa ukwakhiwa kwezempi, ukwakhiwa kombimbi, noma amasu okulawula. Ibhalansi yamandla kufanele ivimbele ukubusa okuphelele kweqembu elilodwa, yize kungavimbeli njalo izingxabano.
3. Inkinga Yokuphepha
Inkinga yezokuphepha ivela lapho imizamo yezwe elilodwa yokuthuthukisa ukuphepha—ngokwesibonelo, ngokuqinisa amasosha alo—ichazwa elinye izwe njengosongo. Ngenxa yalokho, elinye izwe liyasabela ngokuqinisa amasosha alo. Lo mjikelezo ukhulisa ukungezwani yize kungekho qembu elinenhloso yangempela yokuhlasela kwasekuqaleni.
4. Izintshisekelo Nezinzuzo Ezihlobene
Ubufakazi bokuthi izinto zingokoqobo bugcizelela ukuthi izifundazwe zivame ukuhlola ukubambisana ngokusekelwe ezinzuzweni ezilinganiselwe, hhayi nje ezinzuzweni eziphelele. Lokhu kusho ukuthi izifundazwe zingase zenqabe ukubambisana okuzuzisayo uma kuphumela ezinzuzweni ezinkulu kwelinye iqembu futhi kungashintsha ibhalansi yamandla.
Ubuqiniso Emikhubeni Yezepolitiki Yomhlaba Wonke
Izinqubomgomo eziningi zakwamanye amazwe zingahunyushwa ngeso lobuqiniso. Imincintiswano yezikhali, ezombusazwe zomfelandawonye, kanye namasu okuvimbela kuyizibonelo ezivamile. Isibonelo, umqondo wokuvimbela izikhali zenuzi uvela ekubaleni okunengqondo: uma izindleko zokuhlasela ziphezulu kakhulu, umphikisi uzoyeka. Ubuqiniso buphikisana ngokuthi ukuzinza kuvame ukwakhiwa hhayi ngezinhloso ezinhle, kodwa ngokwesaba imiphumela.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuba ngokoqobo kusiza ukuchaza ukuthi kungani izifundazwe ngezinye izikhathi zenza ngendlela engokoqobo: ukubambisana namaqembu anezindinganiso ezingafani, noma ngisho nemibono ephikisanayo, ukuze kufezwe imigomo yamasu. Ngokombono wokuba ngokoqobo, imibono ibalulekile, kodwa ukuphepha kwezwe kanye nezintshisekelo kuvame ukulawula ukukhetha kokugcina.
Ukugxekwa Kobunjalo Beqiniso
Naphezu kwethonya layo, ukuba ngokoqobo akunabo abagxeki bayo. Okokuqala, kubhekwa njengokungathembisi kakhulu futhi kwenza kube lula ukungqubuzana. Abagxeki bathi ukubambisana kwamazwe ngamazwe, izindinganiso, kanye nezikhungo kuye kwabonakala kusebenza kahle ekuvimbeleni ukuziphatha kombuso ezimweni eziningi, isibonelo ngezinqubo zokuhweba, izivumelwano zemvelo, noma ukubusa komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe.
Okwesibili, ubuqiniso bubhekwa njengokunganaki abenzi bezenzo ezingezona ezezwe. Ezweni elihlangene nomhlaba wonke, izinkampani zobuchwepheshe, izinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe, kanye namaqembu aphesheya kwezilwandle angathonya kakhulu inqubomgomo kahulumeni. Ubuqiniso buyavuma ukuthi bukhona, kodwa buvame ukubuka ithonya labo njengelingaphansi kwezintshisekelo zikahulumeni.
Okwesithathu, ubuqiniso buvame ukululaza indima yemibono kanye nobunikazi. Isibonelo, umbono we-constructivist ugcizelela ukuthi izinsongo azigcini nje ngamandla ezinto ezibonakalayo, kodwa futhi nokuqonda, umlando, kanye nobunikazi. Izifundazwe ezimbili ezinamandla alinganayo ezempi zingabhekwa ngendlela ehlukile: esinye siyingozi, esinye umlingani—kuye ngokuthi zakha ubudlelwano nezincazelo zomphakathi.
Isiphetho
Ithiyori yamaqiniso ebuhlotsheni bamazwe ngamazwe inikeza umbono oqinile futhi ovame ukuba ngokoqobo mayelana nokuguquguquka komhlaba. Ngokugcizelela ukungalawuleki kwamazwe ngamazwe, izintshisekelo zesizwe, kanye nokuncintisana kwamandla, ubuqiniso buyasiza ukuchaza ukuthi kungani izingxabano, izinhlanga zezikhali, kanye nezombusazwe zobumbano ziqhubeka nokuba yizici eziyinhloko zobudlelwano phakathi kwamazwe. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ngesimo sobuqiniso basendulo, obugcizelela imvelo yomuntu, noma i-neorealism, egcizelela isakhiwo sesistimu, le ndlela inikeza uhlaka olunamandla lokuhlaziya lokuqonda ukuziphatha kombuso.
Kodwa-ke, ukuba ngokoqobo akuyona yodwa indlela yokubuka umhlaba ngayo. Izinselele zanamuhla ezifana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ubhubhane, ukuphepha kwe-inthanethi, kanye nomnotho womhlaba wonke zibonisa ukuthi ukubambisana nakho kubalulekile. Ngakho-ke, ukuqonda ukuba ngokoqobo kufanele kubekwe eceleni kwezinye izinkolelo-mbono, okusivumela ukuthi sibone ezombusazwe zomhlaba wonke ngokuphelele: njengenkundla yokuncintisana kanye nendawo yokubambisana okungenzeka.
