Ubudlelwano Bamazwe Ngamazwe eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia: Ukuhlaziywa Kwesifundo Secala
INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ingenye yezifunda ezishintshashintsha kakhulu ebalazweni lezepolitiki lomhlaba. Indawo yayo ehlelekile—exhumanisa uLwandlekazi lwaseNdiya nolwasePacific kanye nemizila yokuhweba yamazwe ngamazwe—yenza kube yindawo lapho izintshisekelo zamandla amakhulu zihlangana khona, kanye nendawo yokukhula kokubambisana okukhulu kwesifunda. Ngokombono wobudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe, iNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kuyathakazelisa ukuyifunda ngoba ikhombisa ukusebenzisana phakathi kwezokuxhumana kwamazwe amaningi, ukuncintisana kwezwe, ukuhlanganiswa kwezomnotho, kanye nezinkinga zokuphepha ezingezona ezendabuko njengokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ukufuduka, kanye nobugebengu bamazwe ngamazwe. Lesi sihloko sihlola ubudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ngokuhlaziywa kwezifundo eziningana ezivelele zamacala, siqokomisa abalingisi, izintshisekelo, kanye nemiphumela ekuzinzeni kwesifunda.
Uhlaka Oluvamile: I-ASEAN kanye “ne-ASEAN Way”
Kusukela ekusungulweni kwe-ASEAN ngo-1967, isifunda saseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia sibe nenkundla eyinhloko yokuphatha ubudlelwano phakathi kwamazwe. I-ASEAN akuyona nje inhlangano, kodwa isethi yemikhuba yezombusazwe evame ukubizwa ngokuthi "i-ASEAN Way": ukuxoxisana, ukuvumelana, ukungangeneleli, kanye nendlela ethatha isinyathelo. Le ndlela ibhekwa njengephumelelayo ekuvimbeleni ukungqubuzana okuvulekile phakathi kwamalungu esikhathini sangemva kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi, yize ivame ukugxekwa ngokuba kancane futhi ingaqiniseki lapho ibhekene nezinkinga ezidinga impendulo esheshayo.
Ekwenzeni ubudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe, i-ASEAN idlala indima "njengeplatifomu" emema amandla amakhulu ( i-United States , i-China, i-Japan, i-India, i-Australia, kanye ne-European Union) ngokusebenzisa izinkundla ezifana ne-ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), i-East Asia Summit (EAS), kanye ne-ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus). Le ndlela ibalulekile ekugcineni i-ASEAN iphakathi, ukuqinisekisa ukuthi imithetho yesifunda ayinqunywa ngokuphelele amandla amakhulu.
Isifundo Sendaba 1: Impikiswano YaseNingizimu China Sea kanye Nezepolitiki Zokulinganisela
Impikiswano yoLwandle iSouth China iyisibonelo esiyinhloko sendlela i-geopolitics yomhlaba wonke engqubuzana ngayo nezintshisekelo zezwe zamazwe aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Amalungu amaningana e-ASEAN—iVietnam, iPhilippines, iMalaysia, neBrunei—anezimangalo ezihambisana “nomugqa we-nine-dash” waseShayina. Le mpikiswano ayiphathelene nokuzimela kuphela kodwa futhi nokufinyelela ezinsizeni (inhlanzi, igesi, uwoyela), ukulawulwa kwemizila yemikhumbi, kanye nezikhundla zempi eziqondiwe.
IPhilippines inikeza ucwaningo olubalulekile lapho, ngo-2016, iNkantolo Ehlala Njalo Yokulamula (i-PCA) inquma ukuthi izimangalo zomlando zaseShayina azinasisekelo esisemthethweni ngaphansi kwe-UNCLOS. Lesi sinqumo saqinisa isikhundla sezomthetho sasePhilippines, kodwa ukusetshenziswa kwaso kwabhekana neqiniso lamandla: iShayina yenqaba lesi sinqumo. Ngenxa yalokho, iPhilippines namanye amazwe ahlanganisa umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe, izingxoxo zobumbano, kanye nokuqinisa izivumelwano zokuphepha—ikakhulukazi ne-United States—ukudala umphumela wokulinganisela.
Okwamanje, iVietnam ibonise isu elifanayo kodwa eliqaphile kakhulu: ukuthuthukisa amakhono ayo okuzivikela, ukwandisa ukubambisana kwezokuphepha namaqembu ahlukahlukene (ukuhlangana okuningi), kanye nokugcina ukubambisana kwezomnotho okuvulekile neChina. Leli cala libonisa indlela amazwe aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia avame ukuzithola esesimweni "sokuvikela": hhayi ukusekela ngokugcwele amandla owodwa, kodwa kunalokho alawula ingozi ngokubandakanya abalingani abaningi ngasikhathi sinye.
Isifundo Sesi-2: Inkinga YaseMyanmar kanye Nenkinga Yokungangeneleli
Ukuvukela umbuso kwamasosha eMyanmar ngo-2021 kwaba isivivinyo esikhulu kunazo zonke sokwethenjwa kwe-ASEAN njengomphakathi wezepolitiki nokuphepha . Ubudlova obenziwa kubantu abavamile, ukuboshwa kwabaphikisi, kanye nengxabano ende kwenze udaba lwaseMyanmar lungasabi nje udaba lwasekhaya kodwa lube yinkinga yesifunda ethinta ababaleki, ukuhweba kwamanye amazwe, kanye nesithombe se-ASEAN samazwe ngamazwe.
I-ASEAN iphendule ngokuthi "Isivumelwano Samaphuzu Amahlanu," esihlanganisa ukuqedwa kobudlova, ingxoxo ebandakanya wonke umuntu, ukuqokwa kwesithunywa esikhethekile, ukusatshalaliswa kosizo lobuntu, kanye nokuvakashela kwesithunywa eMyanmar. Kodwa-ke, ukuqaliswa kwayo kuye kwahamba kancane, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yesimiso sokungangeneleli kanye nemibono ehlukene phakathi kwamalungu. Amanye amazwe aphikelele ekubeni nesimo esiqinile, kanti amanye akhethe ukungahlazisi noma ukucindezela i-junta esidlangalaleni.
Indaba yaseMyanmar ibonisa inkinga evamile ebuhlotsheni bamazwe ngamazwe: ukungqubuzana phakathi kobukhosi bombuso kanye nomthwalo wemfanelo wokubambisana wokuvikela amalungelo abantu. Iphinde ibonise ukulinganiselwa kwezinhlangano zesifunda ezithembele ekuvumelaneni. Kulesi simo, kuphakama umbuzo obalulekile: ingabe i-ASEAN idinga ukuchaza kabusha ukungangeneleli ukuze iphendule kangcono ezinkingeni zezombusazwe ezinemithelela edlula imingcele? Noma ingabe ukunamathela kulesi simiso kuyimfuneko yokugcina ubunye be-ASEAN?
Isifundo Sesibonelo 3: Ukuhlanganiswa Komnotho nge-RCEP kanye Nokulwa Kwamandla Amakhulu
Ngokomnotho, iNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia isibe yindawo yokukhula komhlaba wonke kanye "nendawo yokulwa nethonya" ngokutshalwa kwezimali, ukuhweba, kanye nezinketho zokunikezela. Isivumelwano se-Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), esihlanganisa i-ASEAN, i-China, i-Japan, i-South Korea, i-Australia, ne-New Zealand, sibonisa ukuthi i-ASEAN izibeka kanjani njengesikhungo sokwakheka komnotho wase-Indo-Pacific.
I-RCEP ibalulekile ngoba isungula imithetho yokuhweba ejwayelekile, inciphisa izithiyo ezithile zentela, futhi yenza kube lula ukuhlanganiswa kwezintambo zokuphakelwa kwesifunda. Kwamazwe ase-ASEAN, izinzuzo zisethubeni lokukhulisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, ukuheha utshalomali, nokusheshisa ukwakhiwa kwezimboni. Kodwa-ke, i-RCEP idala nokuncintisana okungaqondile kweqhinga. I-China iyazuza ekuhlanganisweni komnotho, iqinisa isikhundla sayo njengesikhungo sokukhiqiza kanye nemakethe enkulu. Okwamanje, amazwe afana neJapan ne-Australia abona i-RCEP njengendlela yokugcina ubumbano lomnotho wesifunda ngaphakathi kohlaka oluzinzile.
Phakathi "kokuhlukaniswa" noma "ukususwa kwengozi" kwamaketanga okuphakelwa komhlaba wonke, iNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia nayo iyazuza ekuthuthweni kwezimboni. IVietnam, iThailand, iMalaysia, ne-Indonesia ziyancintisana ukuheha utshalomali olusekelwe kwezobuchwepheshe, kwezimoto, kanye nolwe-semiconductor. Ubudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe esifundeni bunqunywa kakhulu yi-diplomacy yezomnotho: izikhuthazo zokutshalwa kwezimali, ukuzinza komthetho, kanye nokuphepha kwamandla.
Isifundo Sendaba 4: Ukuphepha Okungeyona Eyendabuko—Umswakama Odlulayo
Akuzona zonke izinkinga zobudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia ezivela ezingxabanweni zempi. Uthuli oluwela imingcele oluvela emililweni yamahlathi neyomhlaba—ikakhulukazi oluthinta i-Indonesia, iSingapore, neMalaysia—luyisibonelo esinamandla senkinga yokuphepha engavamile. Uthuli luphazamisa impilo yomphakathi, ezokuthutha, ezokuvakasha, imfundo, ngisho nokukhiqiza kwezomnotho. Imiphumela yalo iwukusebenzisana kwamazwe ngamazwe, okudinga ukubambisana kwesifunda.
I-ASEAN ineSivumelwano se-ASEAN mayelana nokungcoliswa komoya ongaphezu kwemingcele, kodwa ukusetshenziswa kwaso kuvame ukuphazanyiswa ukuphoqelelwa komthetho, izintshisekelo zomnotho zemikhakha ethile, kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwezifundazwe eziphakathi. Lolu cwaningo lubonisa ukuthi izinsongo zanamuhla ngokuvamile azikwazi ukuxazululwa ngezingxoxo ezisemthethweni zodwa. Izinqubomgomo zasekhaya eziqinile, ukuhlanganiswa kobuchwepheshe, ukucaca kwedatha, kanye nokubandakanyeka kwabadlali abangebona ohulumeni njengezinkampani, ama-NGO, kanye nemiphakathi yasendaweni kuyadingeka.
Amandla Amakhulu: Isu Lombuso Wase-Indo-Pacific kanye Nesifunda
INingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia isendaweni evulekile e-Indo-Pacific. I-United States ikhuthaza ukubambisana kwezokuphepha, inkululeko yokuhamba ngemikhumbi, kanye nobudlelwano bezomnotho obuthile. I-China yandisa ithonya layo ngokusebenzisa amaphrojekthi ezohwebo, ukutshalwa kwezimali, kanye nengqalasizinda. I-Japan neNingizimu Korea zandisa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezimboni kanye nobuchwepheshe, kuyilapho i-India ne-Australia ziqinisa ukubambisana kwezolwandle kanye namandla okuphepha.
Amanye amazwe ase-ASEAN aphendule ngamasu ahlukahlukene: amanye aqinise ubudlelwano obusemthethweni (isibonelo, iPhilippines ne-US), amanye akhethe ukungathathi hlangothi okusebenzayo (i-Indonesia), kanti amanye athembele ekubambisaneni okukhulu kwezomnotho neChina. Kodwa-ke, umgomo obanzi usalokhu ufana: ukugcina ukuzimela kweqhinga, ukuvimbela ukwahlukana okukhulu, kanye nokugcina isikhundla se-ASEAN njengesici esiyinhloko sokwakhiwa kwesifunda.
Isiphetho
Ubudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia bubonakala ngokuhlanganiswa kokubambisana nokuncintisana. Ingxabano yoLwandle lwaseNingizimu China ikhombisa ipolitiki yokulinganisela kanye nokubaluleka komthetho wamazwe ngamazwe, kuyilapho inkinga yaseMyanmar igcizelela ukulinganiselwa kwenqubo yokungangeneleli lapho kubhekene nokwephulwa kwamalungelo abantu kanye nokungazinzi kwangaphakathi okunomthelela wesifunda. I-RCEP ikhombisa ukuthi ukuhlanganiswa komnotho kungaba kanjani ithuluzi lokuzinza kanye nenkundla yokuncintisana ngaphezu kwethonya. Okwamanje, ubumnyama obudlula imingcele bubonisa ukuthi ukuphepha kwesifunda manje kuhlanganisa izindaba zemvelo nezempilo ezifuna izinqubomgomo eziqondile emazingeni kazwelonke nawesifunda.
Kusukela manje, ukuzinza kweNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kuzoncika kakhulu emandleni amazwe ase-ASEAN okuqinisa ubunye bangaphakathi, ukuthuthukisa amandla ezikhungo, nokuphatha ubudlelwano namandla amakhulu ngaphandle kokulahlekelwa ukuzimela kwamasu. Uma i-ASEAN ingalinganisa isimiso sokuvumelana nesidingo sezimpendulo ezisebenza kahle, lesi sifunda sinamandla okuhlala siyisikhungo sokukhula nokuzinza e-Indo-Pacific—hhayi nje inkundla yokulwa nethonya, kodwa umlingisi osiza ekwakheni imithetho yesifunda yomdlalo.
