Me pēhea te tatau i te tūponotanga o te ua
Ko te ua tētahi o ngā āhuatanga o te rangi e kitea whānuitia ana, nā te mea he pānga tika ki ngā mahi o ia rā, mai i te ahuwhenua, te kawe waka, te tūruhi, tae atu ki te whakahaere waipuke. Heoi, he tokomaha tonu te hunga e whakataurite ana i te "matapae ua" ki te "tino ua." Heoi, i roto i te matawhenua o ēnei rā, ko te tūponotanga o te ua ka whakaatuhia hei tūponotanga. Ka matapakihia e tēnei tuhinga te huarahi ki te tatau i te tūponotanga ua, mai i ngā ariā taketake ki ngā tauira tatau ngāwari ki te whai.
Te mārama ki te tūponotanga o te ua
Ko te tūponotanga o te ua e kiia ana ko te tūponotanga o te ua (PoP). Ehara i te mea he ine i te nui o te ua, engari ko te tūponotanga ka ua te ua i tētahi rohe i roto i tētahi wā kua whakaritea (hei tauira, 6 hāora, 24 hāora rānei).
Hei tauira, ki te mea "70% te tūponotanga o te ua," ko te tikanga he 70% te tūponotanga ka ua i te rohe me te wā i matapaetia (i te nuinga o te wā ka inehia mā te paepae motuhake, hei tauira, he iti rawa o te 0,1 mm).
He mea nui kia mōhiotia: kāore i te ngāwari te mārama i te tūponotanga o te ua nā te koretake o ngā raraunga huarere , ngā āhuatanga o te āhuarangi, me ngā herenga o ngā tauira matapae. Heoi, mā te tatauranga, ka taea te tatau i te tūponotanga o te ua mā te whakamahi i ngā raraunga o mua me ngā hua o te tauira matapae.
E rua ngā huarahi noa mō te tatau i te tūponotanga o te ua
I roto i te mahi, e rua ngā huarahi e whakamahia whānuitia ana:
1. Huarahi tatauranga e whakahaerehia ana e ngā raraunga hītori
Te whakamahi i ngā rēkoata ua o mua hei whakatau tata i te tūponotanga o te ua i tētahi wā kua whakaritea.
2. Te matapae (tauira) me ngā huarahi whakakotahi
Te whakamahi i te putanga tauira huarere (tae atu ki ngā horopaki maha/ngā mema tauira) hei tatau i te tūponotanga o te ua.
I roto i tēnei tuhinga, ko te arotahi matua ko te tatau i te tūponotanga o te ua mā te whakamahi i tētahi huarahi tatauranga ka taea e te tangata katoa te mahi, ā, ka mutu me tētahi tirohanga whānui mō te mahi a te huarahi whakatauira.
Ngā raraunga e hiahiatia ana
Hei tatau i te tūponotanga o te ua i runga i te tatauranga, me:
– Ngā raraunga ua o ia rā/o ia hāora mai i ngā teihana ua, i ngā pou ua rānei.
– He wā raraunga roa rawa (hei tauira, 10–30 tau kia pumau ake ai).
– Te whakamāramatanga o te kupu “ua” i whakamahia: te paepae iti rawa o te ua e kiia ana he ua (hei tauira, ≥ 0,1 mm/rā, ≥ 1 mm/rā rānei).
He mea nui tēnei paepae nā te mea ka taea te tuhi i te "uaua iti" hei ua, engari mō ētahi take (hei tauira, te ahuwhenua), ka taea anake te whakaaro he ua mēnā he ≥ 5 mm.
Tikanga 1: Te tūponotanga o te ua mai i te auau o te putanga mai (tikanga māmā)
Ko te tikanga tino māmā ko te tatau i te auau o te ua i roto i taua wā anō.
Tātai
\[
P(\text{ua}) = \frac{\text{te maha o ngā rā ua}}{\text{te tapeke o ngā rā}} \times 100\%
\]
Tauira
Me kī kei te hiahia koe ki te tatau i te tūponotanga te ua i te marama o Hānuere i runga i ngā raraunga 10 tau. Tāpirihia te tapeke o ngā rā o Hānuere mō ngā tau 10:
– E 31 ngā rā o Hānuere.
– Tapeke raraunga = 31 × 10 = 310 rā.
– O ngā rā 310, e 217 ngā rā i tuhia me te ua ≥ 0,1 mm.
Nā reira:
\[
P(\text{ua}) = \frac{217}{310} \times 100\% \approx 70\%
\]
Ko te tikanga o tēnei, i roto i ngā kōrero tuku iho, ko te tūponotanga o te ua i tētahi rā matapōkere i te marama o Hānuere he tata ki te 70% (mā te whakamahi i te paepae 0,1 mm).
Ngā painga me ngā herenga
– Ngā Painga: he tino ngāwari ki te tatau.
– Ngā Here: kāore e whakaarohia ngā āhuatanga o te āhuarangi o ēnei rā, engari ko ngā toharite o mua anake.
Tikanga 2: Te tūponotanga o te ua mō tētahi rā kua whakaritea (te āhuarangi o ia rā)
Ki te hiahia koe kia tino taipitopito ake, ka taea e koe te tatau i te tūponotanga o te ua mō tētahi rā motuhake, hei tauira, ko te 10 o Mei, ma te whakamahi i ngā raraunga hītori mō taua rā mai i ngā tau maha.
Hipanga
1. Tangohia ngā raraunga ua mō taua rā anō, hei tauira, i ia 10 o Mei mō ngā tau 20.
2. Tatauhia te maha o ngā ua (≥ paepae) i taua rā.
3. Wehea mā te maha o ngā tau.
Tātai
\[
P(\text{ua i te rā } d) = \frac{\text{tau o ngā tau ua i te } d}{\text{tau o ngā tau raraunga}} \times 100\%
\]
Tauira
Ngā raraunga o te 10 o Mei mō ngā tau 20:
– 14 ngā wā ua (≥ 1 mm).
– Ngā tau katoa = 20.
\[
P = \frac{14}{20} \times 100\% = 70\%
\]
E kiia ana tēnei tikanga ko te huarahi tātaritanga āhuarangi o ia rā. Hei whakanui ake i te pumau, ka taea e koe te whakawhānui ake i te matapihi wā, hei tauira, mā te whakamahi i ngā rā e 9 (Mei 6–14) kātahi ka tatau i te toharite.
Tikanga 3: Te tūponotanga o te "ua nui" i runga i tētahi paepae motuhake
Ka taea hoki te tatau i te tūponotanga mō ngā kāwai kaha, pērā i te ua nui. He rite tonu te tikanga, ko te paepae anake e rerekē ana.
Hei tauira, ko te whakamāramatanga o te ua nui: ≥ 50 mm/rā.
\[
P(\text{ua nui}) = \frac{\text{te maha o ngā rā me te ua ≥ 50 mm}}{\text{te tapeke o ngā rā}} \times 100\%
\]
Tauira:
– Ngā rā katoa i roto i te 5 tau: 5 × 365 = 1825 rā (kaua e aro ki ngā tau pekepeke hei whakamāmā i te tau).
– Ngā rā ua ≥ 50 mm: 36 ngā rā.
\[
P = \frac{36}{1825} \times 100\% \approx 2\%
\]
Ahakoa he iti, he mea whai hua tēnei uara mō te tātari mōrearea waipuke, te whakamahere waikeri, me te whakatūpato mōrearea.
Tikanga 4: Te tūponotanga i runga i ngā āhuatanga o mua (Markov māmā)
He "tauira haere tonu" te whai a te ua: ki te ua i tēnei rā, he nui ake te tūponotanga ka ua āpōpō i te kore ua i tēnei rā. Ka taea e koe te tatau i ngā tūponotanga whakawhiti māmā mā te whakamahi i ngā ariā Markov.
Tautuhia ngā āhua e rua:
– H = ua (≥ paepae)
– T = kāore he ua
Tātaihia mai i ngā raraunga o mua:
– \(P(H|H)\): te tūponotanga ka ua āpōpō mēnā ka ua i tēnei rā.
– \(P(H|T)\): te tūponotanga ka ua āpōpō mēnā kāore e ua i tēnei rā.
Tauira
Mai i ngā takirua rā 1.000 karapīpiti:
– 400 ngā wā e kīia ana "kei te ua i tēnei rā." O aua 400 wā, 260 ngā wā ka ua āpōpō.
\(P(H|H) = 260/400 = 65\%\)
– 600 ngā wā "e kore e ua i tēnei rā." O aua 600 wā, 180 ngā wā ka ua āpōpō.
\(P(H|T) = 180/600 = 30\%\)
Mā tēnei ka taea te whakarerekē i te tūponotanga o te ua āpōpō i runga i ngā āhuatanga o tēnei rā. He māmā tonu, engari he pono ake i te toharite o ia marama.
Tikanga 5: Ngā tūponotanga mai i tētahi huinga tauira huarere (he tirohanga whānui ki ngā mahi o ēnei rā)
I roto i te matapae huarere o ēnei rā, ka tatauhia te tūponotanga o te ua mai i tētahi matapae huinga, he kohinga o ngā tauira whakatauira maha me ngā āhuatanga tīmatanga rerekē. Ko te mātāpono:
\[
P(\text{ua}) = \frac{\text{te maha o ngā mema o te rōpū e matapae ana i te ua}}{\text{te maha o ngā mema o te rōpū}} \times 100\%
\]
Tauira
E rua tekau ngā mema o te tira mō tō koutou rohe āpōpō:
– 12 ngā mema i matapae i te ua ≥ 1 mm.
– E 8 ngā mema i matapaetia < 1 mm.
\[
P = \frac{12}{20} \times 100\% = 60\%
\]
E whakaata ana tēnei tikanga i te koretake o te tauira. I te nuinga o te wā, ka tawhiti atu i te matapae, ka nui ake te "toro" o ngā tūponotanga i te pikinga ake o te koretake.
Ngā tohutohu mō ngā tataunga tika ake
1. Whakatakotoria te paepae ua e tika ana mō te kaupapa
E tika ana te paepae o te 0,1 mm mō te whakamāramatanga huarere mō te ua; mō te pānga, e hiahiatia ana pea he 5–10 mm.
2. Whakamahia ngā raraunga roa, ma hoki
Ka taea e ngā raraunga ngaro, ngā taputapu ine hapa rānei te whakarerekē i ngā hua. Whakahaerehia ngā arowhai kounga raraunga.
3. Whakaarohia te wā
Te tūponotanga te ua i te wā He rerekē rawa ngā wā maroke me ngā wā ua. Tātaihia motuhake mō ia wā, mō ia marama rānei.
4. Whakamahia ngā matapihi neke wā
Mō ngā rā motuhake, mā te wā e ±3 ki te ±7 ngā rā ka pumau ake ngā whakatau tata.
5. Wehewehea te "tūponotanga o te ua" me te "e hia mm"
Ko te tūponotanga ka whakautu "mēnā i ua," ehara i te "te nui o te ua".
Te Katinga
Ko te tatau i te tūponotanga ua he mea hangai ki tētahi ariā māmā noa iho: te whakataurite i te maha o ngā ua ki te tapeke o ngā kitenga. Ka taea e koe te tatau i te tūponotanga ua toharite ia marama, te tūponotanga i tētahi rā motuhake, te tūponotanga o te ua nui, tae atu ki te tūponotanga o te ua āpōpō, i runga i ngā āhuatanga o tēnei rā. I roto i ngā mahi o ēnei rā, ka tatauhia hoki te tūponotanga ua mai i tētahi huinga tauira huarere, e whakarato ana i tētahi huarahi tūponotanga e pai ake ai te āhua hihiri o te huarere.
Ki te hiahia koe, ka taea e au te āwhina i a koe ki te hanga tauira tatau mā te whakamahi i ngā raraunga Excel/CSV (hei tauira, ngā raraunga ua o ia rā mai i BMKG, i tō teihana ua rānei), me ngā tātai Excel, ngā tuhinga Python rānei hei tatau i te tūponotanga o te ua ia marama, ia wā, me ia paepae kaha.
