Ngā Tikanga Whakatauira Āhuarangi Rorohiko
Ko te whakatauira āhuarangi rorohiko te mahi pūtaiao e whakaatu ana i te pūnaha āhuarangi o te Ao—te āhuarangi, te moana, te whenua, te hukapapa, me te ao koiora—i roto i te ahua o ngā whārite pāngarau e whakatauirahia ana e ngā rorohiko. Ehara i te mea ko te "matapae i te āhuarangi" anake te whāinga, engari ko te mārama ki ngā whanonga āhuarangi mō te wā roa, te aromatawai i te pānga o ngā mahi a te tangata, me te tūhura i ngā āhuatanga ā muri ake nei i runga i ngā huringa o ngā tukunga hau kati kōtuhi, te whakamahinga whenua, me ngā āhuatanga taiao pēnei i ngā pahūtanga puia me ngā rerekētanga o te rā. Nā te mea he pūnaha uaua te āhuarangi, ka whakawhirinaki te whakatauira āhuarangi ki ngā momo tikanga rorohiko tautoko, mai i ngā tauira ā-tinana e hangai ana ki ngā whārite ki ngā huarahi tatauranga me te ako mīhini.
1. Ngā tauira e hangai ana ki ngā whārite ā-tinana (Ngā Tauira Hihiri)
Ko te tikanga tino taketake o te whakatauira āhuarangi ko te whakatauira hihiri, e hanga ana i ngā tauira mai i ngā ture ā-tinana e mōhiotia ana. Ko te tikanga, ko ngā hihiri o te āhuarangi me te moana e whakaahuahia ana e ngā whārite rerekētanga wāhanga pērā i ngā whārite Navier-Stokes (mō ngā wai), ngā whārite o te thermodynamics (pūngao), te tiaki papatipu (tonu), me ngā whārite mō te kawe mamaoa wai, te tote rānei. Nā te mea kāore i roto i ēnei whārite ngā otinga tātari māmā i runga i te tauine aorangi, ka whakamahia ngā rorohiko hei mahi i te whakaurunga tau i roto i te wā.
Ko ngā tauira hihiri āhuarangi ka wehea kia maha ngā wāhanga: te āhuarangi, te moana, te whenua, te hukapapa moana, me ētahi wā te matū o te āhuarangi. Ka honoa ngā taunekeneke i waenga i ēnei wāhanga mā roto i ngā whakawhitiwhitinga pūngao, te makuku, te nekehanga, me ngā rerenga waro. Ko te painga o te huarahi ā-tinana ko tōna ōrite ki ngā mātāpono taketake o te taiao; ko ōna ngoikoretanga ko tōna utu tātai me tōna whakawhirinaki ki ngā whakangawaritanga mō ngā tukanga he iti rawa te tauine (hei tauira, ngā kapua convective).
2. Te wehewehenga whatunga me te taumira ā-wāhi-wā
Nā te mea he pumau tonu te Ao, me whai tikanga wehewehe ngā tauira: ka wehea te mata me te āhuarangi ki ngā pūtau whatunga (tapawhā) i roto i ngā paparanga whānui-roa me ngā paparanga poutū. Ko te taumira whatunga (hei tauira, 100 km, 25 km, he angiangi ake rānei) e whakatau ana i ngā taipitopito ka taea te whakaatu. Ko te angiangi ake o te taumira, ko te nui ake o ngā tukanga ā-rohe ka taea te "whakaatu" mārama, engari ka tino piki ake ngā whakaritenga tātai.
Haunga te whatunga whānui-roa tuku iho, ka whakamahia e ētahi tauira he whatunga porowhita-pūtoru, he tikanga huānga mutunga rānei hei whakaiti i ngā raruraru tau tata ki ngā pou. He mea nui anō hoki te whiriwhiri i te takahanga wā: ka taea e te takahanga wā nui rawa te whakaroa i te tauira, engari ka taea e te iti rawa o te takahanga te whakaroa i te whakatauira. Nō reira, ka whakamahia ētahi kaupapa tau—pērā i te haurua-whakaarokore, te wehewehe-mārama rānei—hei pupuri i te pumau me te whai hua tonu.
3. Te whakapūtātanga o ngā tukanga whatunga-iti
He maha ngā tukanga nui e puta ana i ngā tauine iti iho i ngā pūtau whatunga, pērā i te hanganga kapua, te aueue o te paparanga rohe, te ua convective, te taunekeneke aerosol-kapua rānei. Nā te mea kāore e taea te whakatauira mārama i ngā taumira ao whānui, ka tohuhia ēnei e ngā tawhā: ngā ture ā-wheako, ā-haurua rānei e hono ana i ngā āhuatanga tauine whatunga ki ngā pānga toharite o ngā tukanga iti.
Ko te whakapūtātanga tētahi o ngā pūtake nui o te koretake i roto i ngā matapae āhuarangi, inā koa mō ngā kapua, e pā ana ki te whakaata o te Ao (albedo) me te urupare hihi. Kei roto i ngā tikanga whakapūtātanga hou ngā huarahi whakapūtātanga matapōkere, e whakauru ana i ngā huānga tūponotanga hei tohu i ngā rerekētanga iti kāore i whakatauhia e te whatunga.
4. Ngā tauira tohanga whānui me ngā tauira pūnaha Papatūānuku (GCM me ESM)
Ko ngā tauira āhuarangi o te ao rongonui ko ngā Tauira Tohanga Whānui (GCM), e whakatauira ana i te tohanga hau me/ranei te tohanga moana i te tauine aorangi. Ko ngā tauira whānui ake e mōhiotia ana ko ngā Tauira Pūnaha Whenua (ESM), e tāpiri ana i ngā huringa koiora-matū pērā i ngā huringa waro me te hauota me ngā whanaketanga tipu. Mā ngā ESM, ka taea e ngā kairangahau te ako ehara i te mea ko te urupare pāmahana ki ngā tukunga anake engari me pēhea hoki te pānga o te huringa āhuarangi ki te kaha o ngā pūnaha rauropi ki te mimiti i te waro, ā, ka hangaia he urupare āhuarangi-waro.
I te taumata tono, ka whakamahia tēnei tauira hei whakamātautau i ngā "whakaaturanga": hei tauira, me pēhea te whanaketanga o te āhuarangi mēnā ka piki tonu ngā tukunga, ka noho pumau, ka heke tere rānei. Ko ngā hua te pūtake mō ngā rangahau pūtaiao o te ao, ā, ka whakamōhio hoki i ngā kaupapa here āhuarangi.
5. Te Whakaiti i te Tauine: mai i te Ao Whānui ki te Ao Ā-Rohe
He maha ngā wā ka pāngia ngā hiahia o ngā kaiwhakamahi e te rohe: te pānga ki te ua o te tāone, te pāmahana tino kino i ngā rohe ahuwhenua, te mōrearea rānei o te waipuke o te awa. Nā te mea he tino uaua rawa ngā tauira ā-ao mō ngā taipitopito ā-rohe, ka whakamahia ngā tikanga whakaiti i te tauine.
E rua ngā huarahi matua. Tuatahi, ko te whakahekenga auau me te Tauira Āhuarangi Rohe (RCM), e whakahaere ana i tētahi tauira taumira teitei mō tētahi rohe motuhake me ngā here o tētahi tauira ā-ao. Tuarua, ko te whakahekenga tatauranga, e whakatū ana i ngā whanaungatanga tatauranga i waenga i ngā taurangi nui (hei tauira, te tohanga o te hau) me ngā taurangi ā-rohe (te ua o te teihana). He iti ake te utu o te whakahekenga tatauranga engari e whakawhirinaki ana ki te whakaaro ka mau tonu ngā whanaungatanga tatauranga o mua ā muri ake nei.
6. Te whakakotahitanga raraunga mō te hanga anō me te ōritetanga o te tauira
Ahakoa e mōhiotia whānuitia ana te whakaurunga raraunga i roto i te matapae huarere, he mea nui anō hoki tēnei tikanga i roto i te whakatauira āhuarangi, inā koa mō te tātari anō me te hanga anō i ngā āhuatanga o mua o te āhuarangi. Ka whakakotahi te whakaurunga raraunga i ngā tirohanga (amiorangi, teihana, kaipuke, pōito) me ngā tauira o mua hei whakaputa i ngā whakatau tata ā-tinana mō te āhua o te āhuarangi me te moana.
Ko ngā tikanga rongonui ko te Tātari Kalman (me ōna hua pēnei i te Tātari Kalman Ensemble) me ngā huarahi rerekē (3D-Var/4D-Var). I roto i te horopaki āhuarangi, ka āwhina te whakaurunga ki te whakakotahi i ngā raraunga marara me ngā raraunga kāore i oti, ka whakarato i ngā hua hītori e whai hua ana mō te aromatawai i ngā tauira me te mārama ki ngā au mō te wā roa.
7. Te whakatauira rōpū mō te koretake me te tūponotanga
He pōrearea te āhuarangi, nō reira he aro nui ngā hua whakatauira ki ngā āhuatanga tīmatanga me ngā kōwhiringa tawhā. Hei whakatutuki i tēnei, ka whakamahia te whakatauira huinga: te whakahaere i tētahi tauira i ngā wā maha me ngā āhuatanga tīmatanga rerekē, ngā horopaki, ngā tawhā rānei hei whakaputa i te whānuitanga o ngā mea ka taea. Mā ngā huinga ka taea e ngā kairangahau te aromatawai i te tūponotanga o tētahi huihuinga (hei tauira, te rua o te tūponotanga o tētahi ngaru wera nui) kaua ki te huarahi kotahi noa iho.
Ka tautokohia hoki e te rōpū ngā rōpū maha-tauira, e whakakotahi ana i ngā tauira maha mai i ngā tari rerekē. He pai ngā whakatairite i waenga i ngā tauira hei tautuhi i ngā āhuatanga pakari (pūmau) me ngā āhuatanga kāore i te tino mārama.
8. Aromatawai tauira me te ine mahi (manatoko tauira)
Kāore ngā tikanga whakatauira e mutu noa i te whakahaere i ngā whakatauira; he rite tonu te hiranga o te aromatawai tauira. Ka whakaritea ngā tauira ki ngā kitenga hītori, ngā tātaritanga anō, me ngā rekoata āhuarangi tawhito (hei tauira, ngā pokapū hukapapa, ngā putunga rānei) hei manatoko i tō rātou kaha ki te whakaputa anō i ngā tauira o te pāmahana, te ua, te tohanga o te hauāuru, te El Niño–La Niña, me ngā ia o te mahana o te ao. Kei roto i ngā tikanga aromatawai ko ngā inenga tatauranga (te pānga, te RMSE, te hononga), te tātaritanga tino nui, me ngā aromatawai tiaki pūngao me te wai.
Ko te aromatawai hou e aro nui ana ki te aromatawai e ahu mai ana i te tukanga: ehara i te mea ko te taurite i ngā tau anake, engari ko te aromatawai mēnā ka tāruatia e te tauira ngā tukanga ā-tinana tika, hei tauira, ngā tikanga o te hanganga kapua i ngā rohe toropika, ngā āhuatanga rānei o ngā ia nui o te moana.
9. Te ako mīhini me ngā tauira ranu
I ngā tau tata nei, kua noho te ako mīhini (ML) hei tikanga tautoko. Ka whakamahia te ML hei whakateretere i ngā wāhanga utu nui (te whakatauira whakakapi), hei whakatika i ngā whakaaro pōhewa (te whakatikatika whakaaro pōhewa), hei hanga rānei i ngā tawhā o ngā kapua me ngā aueuetanga i akohia mai i ngā whakatauira tino teitei me ngā raraunga tirotiro.
He huarahi whai hua te tauira ranu: te whakakotahi i tētahi matua ā-tinana (kia mau tonu ai te ōrite ki ngā ture tiaki taiao) me tētahi kōwae ML mō ngā tukanga whatunga-iti. Ko ngā wero matua ko te whakawhanui i tua atu i te whānuitanga raraunga whakangungu, te whakamārama, me te whakarite i te pumau tau ina whakauruhia te ML ki ngā tauira āhuarangi mō te wā roa.
10. Rorohiko mahi teitei me te whai huatanga o te pūngao
Ka whakahaerehia te whakatauira āhuarangi hou i runga i ngā rorohiko nui me ngā mano ki te miriona o ngā matua rorohiko. Ko ngā tikanga whakarara, te arotau waehere, me te whakahaere tāuru-putanga raraunga he mea nui. Ko ngā whakataunga teitei me ngā huinga nui ake ka whakaputa i ngā petabyte o ngā raraunga, ka nui haere te hiranga o te whakahaere raraunga, te kōpeketanga, me te tātaritanga in-situ (te tukatuka raraunga i te wā e whakahaerehia ana te whakatauira).
Nā te taenga mai o ngā GPU me ngā hoahoa rorohiko hou i akiaki te whakawhanaketanga anō o ngā tauira kia pai ake ai te whai hua. I taua wā tonu, kei te tīmata hoki te hapori āhuarangi ki te whakaaro ki te tapuwae waro o te rorohiko, e kore ai e waiho te whai huatanga hei take wā anake engari hei take whakapaunga pūngao anō hoki.
Te Katinga
Ka whakakotahi ngā tikanga whakatauira āhuarangi rorohiko i te ahupūngao, te pāngarau tau, ngā tatauranga, te pūtaiao raraunga, me te rorohiko mahi-teitei. Mai i ngā tauira hihiri e hangai ana ki te whārite, te wehewehe whatunga, me te whakapūtanga tawhā whatunga iti, ki ngā huinga, te whakaheke i te tauine, te whakauru raraunga, me te whakaurunga ako mīhini, ko te whāinga katoa he mārama ki te pūnaha āhuarangi uaua me te whakarato i ngā mōhiohio pono. I te whakapai ake o ngā tirohanga, ngā ariā, me ngā āheinga rorohiko, ka kaha ake te whakautu a te whakatauira āhuarangi i ngā pātai nui: me pēhea te hurihanga o te āhuarangi, te tere o te hurihanga, me ngā rautaki ka tino whai hua mō te whakaiti me te urutau ā muri ake nei.
