Izindlela Zezibalo Esayensi Yezepolitiki
Isayensi yezepolitiki ivame ukuqondwa njengocwaningo lwamandla, izikhungo, ukuziphatha kwezepolitiki, inqubomgomo yomphakathi, kanye nokuguquguquka komphakathi okwakha izinqumo ezihlangene. Kodwa-ke, ngale kwezingxoxo zemibono, amasu omkhankaso, ngisho nokwenza umthetho kunesidingo esiyisisekelo: ukuqonda amaphethini nokuchaza imbangela nomphumela ngendlela ehlelekile. Yilapho izindlela zezibalo zidlala khona indima ebalulekile. Izibalo zisiza ososayensi bezepolitiki ukucubungula idatha, ukuhlola imibono, ukuqhathanisa amacala, nokufinyelela iziphetho ezithembekile. Lesi sihloko sixoxa ngendima, izinhlobo, kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezindlela zezibalo kwisayensi yezepolitiki, kufaka phakathi izinselele ezivame ukubhekana nazo.
Kungani Izibalo Zibalulekile Esayensini Yezepolitiki?
Izehlakalo zezombusazwe ziyinkimbinkimbi futhi zivame ukuhilela izici eziningi: ezomnotho, isiko, izakhiwo zezikhungo, ukuxhumana kwabezindaba, ngisho nobunikazi bamaqembu. Ngaphandle kwamathuluzi okulinganisa, ukuhlaziywa kwezepolitiki kusengozini yokubanjwa yizindaba ezimfushane noma umuzwa wodwa. Izibalo zinikeza uhlaka lokuphendula imibuzo efana nalokhu: yiziphi izici ezithonya ukukhetha kwabavoti? ingabe inqubomgomo iyanciphisa ubumpofu noma yandisa ukungalingani? uhlelo lokhetho luthinta kanjani inani lamaqembu? ingabe ukwahlukana kuyanda ngokuhamba kwesikhathi?
Ngaphezu kwalokho, izibalo zithuthukisa nokuziphendulela ocwaningweni. Ngezinqubo ezicacile—kusukela ekuqoqweni kwedatha kanye nencazelo eguquguqukayo kuya kumasu okuhlaziya kanye nokuhlolwa kwe-hypothesis—ucwaningo luba sobala kakhulu futhi luphindaphindeke.
Izinhlobo Zedatha Ocwaningweni Lwezepolitiki
Ukusetshenziswa kwezibalo kuncike kakhulu ohlotsheni lwedatha esetshenziswayo. Kwisayensi yezepolitiki, ezinye izinhlobo ezivamile zedatha yilezi:
1. Idatha yocwaningo: etholakala emibuzweni ephathelene nombono womphakathi, ukuziphatha kokuvota, ukwethembana ezikhungweni, noma isimo sengqondo mayelana nenqubomgomo. Ucwaningo lungaba ngezigaba noma lube yiphaneli (kulinganiswe abaphenduli abafanayo ngezikhathi eziningi).
2. Idatha yokhetho: inani labavoti, ukubamba iqhaza kwabavoti, ukusatshalaliswa kwamavoti ngokwesifunda, kanye nedatha yabazongenela ukhetho. Le datha ivame ukusetshenziselwa ukuhlaziya ukuncintisana kwezepolitiki kanye nokumelwa.
3. Idatha yezikhungo kanye nenqubomgomo: isibonelo, inani lama-veto kamongameli, imithetho yokhetho, inkomba yentando yeningi, ukusetshenziswa kwemali komphakathi, noma imithetho yehhovisi likahulumeni.
4. Idatha yochungechunge lwesikhathi: idatha ehlelwe ngokusekelwe esikhathini, isibonelo amazinga okwehla kwamandla emali, imiboniso, noma iphesenti lokusekela uhulumeni inyanga nenyanga.
5. Idatha yephaneli: inhlanganisela yedatha kuzo zonke izifunda/amazwe nesikhathi, isibonelo idatha evela ezifundazweni ezingu-30 eminyakeni eyi-10.
6. Idatha yombhalo kanye nabezindaba: izinkulumo zezombusazwe, izindaba, okuthunyelwe ezinkundleni zokuxhumana, imibhalo yenqubomgomo. Lokhu manje kuvame ukuhlaziywa kusetshenziswa izindlela zokulinganisa ezifana nokuhlaziywa kwemizwa noma ukwakheka kwesihloko.
Izibalo Ezichazayo: Isisekelo Sokuhlaziywa Kwezepolitiki
Isinyathelo sokuqala ocwaningweni lwezibalo ngokuvamile siqala ngezibalo ezichazayo, indlela yokufingqa idatha. Nakuba kubonakala kulula, izibalo ezichazayo zinquma kakhulu ikhwalithi yokuhlaziywa okulandelayo.
Izibonelo zezicelo zifaka phakathi ukubala isilinganiso sokuvota kwabavoti esifundazweni ngasinye, ukuhlola ukusatshalaliswa kwezintandokazi zeqembu ngokweminyaka, noma ukumaka izitayela zokuthembela komphakathi ezikhungweni zomthetho. Izinyathelo ezifana nesilinganiso, isilinganiso, imodi, kanye nokwehluka, kanye nokuboniswa (amagrafu ebha, ama-histogram, amamephu anezihloko) zisiza abacwaningi ukuhlonza amaphethini okuqala nokuthola okungafani.
Isiphetho Sezibalo: Ukuhlanganisa Kusukela Kumasampula Kuya Kubantu
Ngenxa yokuthi akunakwenzeka ukubona inani labantu lonke, ososayensi bezombusazwe bavame ukusebenza ngamasampula. Ukuqagela kwezibalo kuvumela abacwaningi ukuthi balinganisele izici zabantu futhi bahlole imibono.
Amasu okuphetha ayisisekelo ahlanganisa:
– Izilinganiso kanye nezikhawu zokuzethemba: isibonelo ukulinganisa izinga lokusekelwa komuntu ofaka isicelo onephutha elithile.
– Ukuhlolwa kwe-hypothesis: isibonelo ukuhlola ukuthi umehluko wokusekelana phakathi kwamaqembu emfundo ephansi nephakeme ubalulekile ngokwezibalo.
Kodwa-ke, kubalulekile ukuqonda ukuthi ukubaluleka kwezibalo akusho ngaso sonke isikhathi ukuthi kukhulu noma kubalulekile. Ngakho-ke, isayensi yezepolitiki yanamuhla igcizelela nobukhulu bokubika kanye nokuhumusha okuhlobene nezepolitiki.
Ukuhlehla: Ukuchaza Ubudlelwano Phakathi Kwezinto Eziguquguqukayo
Enye yezindlela ezisetshenziswa kakhulu kwisayensi yezepolitiki ukuhlaziywa kokuhlehla, ngoba iyakwazi ukuhlola ithonya lezinto eziningana ngesikhathi esisodwa.
1. Ukuhlehla okuqondile (i-OLS) kusetshenziswa lapho okuguquguqukayo okuxhomeke kumanani kuyinombolo, isibonelo amaphuzu entando yeningi, izinga lokubamba iqhaza, noma inani lezinqubomgomo ezidlulisiwe.
2. Ukuhlehla kwe-logistic kusetshenziswa lapho i-dependent variable i-binary, njengokuthi “vote/don’t vote”, “win/lose”, noma “agree/angivumelani”.
3. Ukuhlehla kwe-Multinomial/ordinal kusetshenziswa lapho izinketho zingaphezu kwezigaba ezimbili, isibonelo ukukhetha kweqembu (A, B, C) noma izinga lokuvumelana (ukungavumelani nhlobo nokuvumelana ngokuqinile).
Ezifundweni zokuziphatha kwabavoti, ukuhlehla kuvame ukusetshenziswa ukuhlola ithonya lemali engenayo, imfundo, ubuwena benkolo, ukudalulwa kwabezindaba, noma ukuhlolwa kokusebenza kukahulumeni ekukhetheni kwezepolitiki. Ezifundweni zenqubomgomo, ukuhlehla kusiza ukuxhumanisa ukusetshenziswa kwemali komphakathi nezinkomba zezenhlalakahle.
Ukuhlaziywa Kwamazinga Ahlukahlukene kanye Nedatha Yokuqukethwe
Idatha yezepolitiki ivame ukuba ngokwezinga: abantu batholakala ngaphakathi kwezifunda, kanti izifunda zitholakala ngaphakathi kwamazwe. Amamodeli anezinga elihlukahlukene (amamodeli anezinga elihlukile) avumela abacwaningi ukuthi bahlukanise imiphumela yomuntu ngamunye nemiphumela yomongo. Isibonelo, ukukhetha komuntu ukuvota kuthonywa yizici zakhe zomuntu siqu (ubudala, imfundo) kanye nomongo wesifunda (amazinga obumpofu, ukubuswa yiqembu lendawo). Le ndlela isiza ukugwema iziphetho ezidukisayo ezivela emazingeni okuhlaziya axubile.
Uchungechunge Lwesikhathi kanye Nezifundo Zokushintsha Kwezepolitiki
Izenzakalo eziningi zezombusazwe ziyashintshashintsha: ukusekelwa kohulumeni kuyashintshashintsha, izingxabano ziyanda noma ziyancipha, futhi izinqubomgomo ziyashintsha. Ukuhlaziywa kochungechunge lwesikhathi kusetshenziselwa ukuqonda izitayela, imijikelezo, kanye nomthelela wezenzakalo.
Isibonelo, abacwaningi bangahlola ukuthi inkinga yezomnotho ilandelwa ukwehla kwezilinganiso zokuvunyelwa, noma ukuthi izinguquko emithethweni yokhetho zithinta yini ukuhlukana kwamaqembu okhethweni olulandelayo. Amasu afana ne-ARIMA noma amamodeli okungenelela angasetshenziswa ukubamba izinguquko ngaphambi nangemva komcimbi.
Indlela Yokubanga: Kusukela Ekuhlobaneni Kuya Ekubangeleni
Inselele enkulu kwisayensi yezepolitiki ukuhlukanisa ukuhlobana kwezimbangela. Uma iziguquguquko ezimbili zihamba ndawonye, enye ayibangeli enye. Abacwaningi kumele baqaphele iziguquguquko ezididayo, izimbangela eziphambene, kanye nobandlululo lokukhetha.
Ezinye izindlela zezibalo zokuthola isiphetho sembangela zifaka:
– Ukuhlolwa kanye nezilingo ezilawulwa ngokungahleliwe (ama-RCT): isibonelo, ukuhlola ithonya lemiyalezo ethile yomkhankaso ezimweni zengqondo zabavoti ngokusabalalisa okungahleliwe.
– Ukuhlolwa kwe-quasi: njengokwehluka komehluko, ukungaqhubeki kokuhlehla, noma iziguquguquko zezinsimbi zezimo lapho ukwenziwa ngokungahleliwe kungenzeki.
– Ukufanisa kanye nesilinganiso sokuthambekela: ukufanisa amayunithi afanayo ukuqhathanisa amaqembu athole “ukwelashwa” nalawo angazange athole.
Izindlela zokubanga ziya ngokuya zibaluleke kakhulu ngoba ucwaningo oluningi lwesayensi yezepolitiki aluhlose ukuchaza nje kuphela “okwenzekile,” kodwa futhi “nokuthi kungani kwenzeke” kanye “nokuthi umthelela ubuyoba yini uma izinqubomgomo zishintshwa.”
Ukuhlaziywa Kombhalo kanye Nedatha Enkulu Yezepolitiki
Intuthuko kwezobuchwepheshe bolwazi iye yandisa imithombo yedatha yezepolitiki: imithombo yezokuxhumana, amaphothali ezindaba, imibhalo yenkantolo, kanye nemibhalo yenqubomgomo. Izindlela zezibalo manje sezisetshenziswa uku:
- linganisa imizwa yomphakathi ezindabeni ezithile,
– thola izihloko ezivelele enkulumweni noma ku-manifesto,
– ukumaka amanethiwekhi olwazi kanye nokusatshalaliswa kolwazi olungesilo iqiniso.
Kodwa-ke, idatha yedijithali inezinselele: ukubandlulula ukumelwa (abasebenzisi bezinkundla zokuxhumana abameleli abantu), ukuguquguquka kwe-algorithm yesikhulumi, kanye nezinkinga zokuziphatha zobumfihlo.
Izinselele kanye Nezimiso Zokuziphatha Ekusebenziseni Izibalo
Ukusetshenziswa kwezibalo akuqinisekisi ngokuzenzakalelayo ucwaningo olusezingeni eliphezulu. Ezinye izinkinga ezivame ukuvela yilezi:
1. Ikhwalithi yedatha kanye nokulinganiswa kwezinguquko: imiqondo efana “nentando yeningi”, “i-populism”, noma “ukuthembana” kunzima ukuyilinganisa yodwa.
2. Ukusampula ubandlululo: izinhlolovo zingase zingameleli uma abanye abaphenduli kunzima ukubafinyelela.
3. Ukuhunyushwa kabi: amanani e-p avame ukuchazwa kabi, futhi ukuhlangana kuvame ukuthathwa njengembangela.
4. Ukucaca nokuphindaphinda: abacwaningi badinga ukushicilela idatha, ikhodi yokuhlaziya, kanye nezinqubo zokuhlanza idatha lapho kungenzeka khona.
5. Izimiso Zokuziphatha: ukusetshenziswa kwedatha yomuntu siqu, izivivinyo zasensimini, noma ukuhlaziywa kwezokuxhumana kumele kuhambisane nesimiso sokuvikelwa kwesihloko futhi kungadali ukulimala komphakathi.
I-Penutup
Izindlela zezibalo seziyingxenye ebalulekile yesayensi yezepolitiki yanamuhla. Kusukela ekuchazeni izitayela zombono womphakathi kanye nokuhlaziya ukuziphatha kwabavoti kanye nokuhlolwa kwenqubomgomo kuya ekubumbeni izimbangela kanye nedatha enkulu, izibalo zisiza abacwaningi ukuhlela ubunzima bezepolitiki kube yimiphumela elinganisekayo. Kodwa-ke, amandla ezibalo kumele alinganiswe nomklamo wocwaningo olucophelelayo, ikhwalithi yedatha, kanye nomthwalo wemfanelo wokuziphatha. Ekugcineni, izibalo azithathi indawo yokuqonda okubalulekile kwezepolitiki, kodwa kunalokho ithuluzi eliqinisa izimpikiswano futhi landise ikhono lethu lokufunda amaqiniso ezepolitiki ngendlela ehlelekile.
Uma ufisa, ngingaguqula lesi sihloko sibe yinguqulo ephelele yezemfundo enezingcaphuno (i-APA/iChicago), ngifake izibonelo zamacala ase-Indonesia, noma ngisihlele njengephepha (isifinyezo-isingeniso-izindlela-imiphumela-ingxoxo).
