Zinembe Kangakanani Izibikezelo Zezulu Ezisebangeni Elide?
Abantu abaningi bathembele ekubikezelweni kwesimo sezulu ukuze bahlele imisebenzi yabo: kusukela ekunqumeni izikhathi zokuvuna kuya ekubhukheni amaholide kuya ekuhleleni imishado yangaphandle. Kodwa-ke, njengoba ukubikezelwa kuba kude—isibonelo, amasonto amabili kuya enyangeni—kuvela umbuzo ovamile: zinembile kangakanani izibikezelo zesimo sezulu zesikhathi eside? Impendulo ayilula njengokuthi “zinembile” noma “azinembile.” Ukunemba kwezibikezelo zesikhathi eside kuncike ekulinganiselweni kwesayensi yomoya, ikhwalithi yedatha, kanye nohlobo lolwazi olubikezelwayo.
Ukuqonda izinhlobo zezibikezelo: isimo sezulu vs isimo sezulu
Okokuqala, kubalulekile ukuhlukanisa phakathi kwesimo sezulu nesimo sezulu. Isimo sezulu yisimo sezulu sesikhashana noma sansuku zonke—imvula, ukukhanya kwelanga, ukufiphala, imimoya enamandla—endaweni ethile. Isimo sezulu yisimo sezulu esimaphakathi sesikhathi eside (amashumi eminyaka) esifundeni. Isibikezelo sansuku zonke sizama ukuphendula ukuthi "Lizona nini kusasa?" kuyilapho izibikezelo zesikhathi eside zivame ukuhlosa kakhulu njengokuthi "Emavikini amabili azayo, amathuba emvula makhulu kunokujwayelekile."
Ngakho-ke, igama elithi “isibikezelo sezulu esikude” livame ukuhlanganisa izindlela ezimbili: izibikezelo eziqinisekile (isb., “Lizokuna ngosuku lwe-12”) kanye nezibikezelo ezingenzeka (isb., “Kuzoba nethuba lemvula elingaphezu kwejwayelekile eSontweni lesi-3”). Lokhu kokugcina kuvame ukuba nengqondo ngokwesayensi ngaphezu kwesikhathi eside.
Kungani izibikezelo ziba nzima kakhulu njengoba isikhathi siqhubeka?
Umkhathi uyaphazamiseka (uphazamiseka ngomqondo wesayensi): izinguquko ezincane ezimweni zokuqala zingaba umehluko omkhulu ezinsukwini ezimbalwa. Lokhu kuvame ukubizwa ngokuthi “umphumela webhabhathane.” Izibikezelo zezulu zanamuhla zenziwa kusetshenziswa amamodeli ezinombolo, ukulingisa kwekhompyutha okubala ukunyakaza komoya, umhwamuko wamanzi, amafu, kanye namandla emkhathini ngokusekelwe ezibalweni ezibonakalayo. Amamodeli adinga “izimo zokuqala”—izinga lokushisa, ingcindezi, umswakama, kanye nedatha yomoya—eqoqwe kumasathelayithi, i-radar, iziteshi zezulu, imikhumbi, izindiza, kanye namabhaluni esimo sezulu.
Inkinga iwukuthi, izimo zokuqala azikaze zilinganiswe kahle. Kunezindawo ezinkulu zolwandle ezinezindawo ezincane zokubuka, ukulungiswa kwesathelayithi okulinganiselwe, kanye namaphutha okulinganisa. Uma lokhu kungaqiniseki okuncane kwengezwa ohlelweni lomkhathi oluphithizelayo, kuyakhula ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Yingakho izibikezelo ngosuku lwesibili zivame ukuba zinembile kakhulu kunosuku lwe-10, kanti usuku lwe-15 lunzima nakakhulu.
Ngokuvamile, amakhono okubikezela isimo sezulu anemininingwane (isb., indawo eqondile yemvula edolobheni elithile) anomkhawulo osebenzayo wezinsuku eziyi-7-10, kuye ngesifunda kanye nesizini. Ngale kwalokho, sisengabikezela izitayela ezinkulu, kodwa imininingwane yansuku zonke ayizinzile.
Kusho ukuthini ukuthi “ukunemba” ngezibikezelo zesikhathi eside?
Ukunemba kungasho izinto eziningana:
1. Ukunemba kwezinga lokushisa: Izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile lansuku zonke livame ukuba lula ukulibikezela kunemvula, ikakhulukazi ngezikhathi ezimfushane.
2. Ukunemba kwemvula: Imvula itholakala kakhulu endaweni ethile futhi ithonywa yizinqubo zamafu eziyinkimbinkimbi. Ukuqinisekisa "imvula endaweni X ngesikhathi Y" kuyinselele enkulu, ngisho noma izinsuku eziningana kusengaphambili.
3. Ukunemba kwephethini: Isibonelo, “ngesonto elizayo kuzoba manzi kakhulu kunokujwayelekile” noma “kukhona ithuba lokushisa okukhulu.” Lokhu kuvame ukuba ngokoqobo kakhulu esikhathini esiphakathi kuya kweside.
4. Ukunemba kwamathuba: Izibikezelo zanamuhla zivame ukuvezwa ngokwamathuba. "Amathuba angu-60% emvula" angaba anembile noma ngabe alinanga ngalolo suku, inqobo nje uma amathuba ehambisana ngokwezibalo nokuvela kwamacala amaningi afanayo.
Ngakho-ke, ukuhlola izibikezelo zesikhathi eside kudinga ukubheka ukuthi lokho okubikezelwayo kuyisenzakalo esithile noma umkhuba.
Indima yezibikezelo zeqembu: indlela ososayensi abaphatha ngayo ukungaqiniseki
Ukuze babhekane nokungaqiniseki ezimweni zokuqala, izazi zezulu zisebenzisa izibikezelo ezihlanganisiwe. Esikhundleni sokusebenzisa ukulingisa okukodwa, basebenzisa ukulingisa okuningi okunokwehluka okuncane ezimweni zokuqala kanye/noma kumapharamitha emodeli. Umphumela uba yiqoqo lezimo.
Uma amalungu amaningi eqembu evuma—isibonelo, amamodeli angu-80% abonisa isimo sezulu esomile—khona-ke ukuzethemba kwesibikezelo kuphakeme. Uma imiphumela ihlakazekile (imvula eyingxenye yombukiso, isimo sezulu esinelanga esiyingxenye yombukiso), kubonisa ukungaqiniseki okukhulu. Le ndlela iwusizo kakhulu ekubikezelweni okungaphezu kwezinsuku ezingu-5-7 ngoba inikeza ulwazi lokuthi amamodeli aqiniseka kangakanani, kunokuba kube yimpendulo eyodwa nje.
Isibikezelo sezinsuku eziyi-10–14: kusengenzeka, kodwa kunqunyelwe
Esikhathini sezinsuku eziyi-10-14, izibikezelo zivame ukugxila kumaphethini amakhulu ahambisanayo: ukunyakaza komfutho ophezulu nophansi, amathuba okuba khona kwemvula enkulu, noma ukushintsha kokugeleza komoya. Kulesi sikali, ezinye izici zomkhathi zibikezelwa kalula.
Kodwa-ke, imininingwane efana nokuqina kwemvula edolobheni elithile, isikhathi esiqondile semvula, noma ubude besiphepho iba nzima kakhulu. Iphutha elivamile elenziwa abantu ukufunda isibikezelo sezinsuku eziyi-14 njengesibikezelo sezinsuku ezi-2: sengathi zonke izithonjana "zemvula" ngosuku lwe-13 ziqinisekile. Eqinisweni, lesi sithonjana sivame ukuba isifinyezo esingacacile samathuba.
Isibikezelo sesizini: hhayi "isimo sezulu ngosuku oluthile"
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunezibikezelo zesizini (izinyanga ezisukela ezinyangeni ezi-3 kuya kwezi-6). Lokhu kuvame ukungaqondwa kahle njengamakhalenda esimo sezulu sansuku zonke. Kodwa-ke, izibikezelo zesizini zifana kakhulu nezibikezelo zesimo sezulu zesikhathi esifushane: ukuthi isifunda cishe sizoba nemvula, sijwayelekile, noma somile kunesilinganiso.
Isici esenza izibikezelo zesizini zibe "cishe zibe" kakhulu ukuba khona kwezinguquko ezinkulu ezishintsha kancane kunesimo sezulu sansuku zonke, njengokushisa kolwandle. Izenzakalo ezifana ne-El Niño ne-La Niña zingathonya amaphethini emvula e-Indonesia, yize imiphumela yazo ihlukahluka kuzo zonke izifunda futhi ayihlali inquma. Ngisho noma isignali ye-El Niño icacile, izibikezelo zesizini zihlala zingamathuba, hhayi iziqiniseko.
Kungani imvula kunzima kakhulu ukuyibikezela?
Imvula ihilela i-microphysics yamafu, ukusebenzisana kwe-topographic, kanye nokushisa kwendawo. Ezindaweni ezishisayo njenge-Indonesia, imvula ivame ukubangelwa yi-convection (ukushisa kwendawo okwakha amafu amade), okuzwela kakhulu ezimweni zendawo: izinga lokushisa kwendawo, umswakama, ukumbozwa kwamafu ekuseni, kanye nomoya wolwandle. Ngenxa yalokho, izindawo ezimbili eziqhelelene ngamakhilomitha ambalwa zingabhekana nezimo ezihluke kakhulu.
Amamodeli esimo sezulu nawo anesinqumo esithile. Uma igridi yamamodeli inzima kakhulu, imininingwane efana nezintaba ezincane noma ugu oluyinkimbinkimbi "izoba ngokwesilinganiso." Lokhu kungenza izibikezelo zemvula zendawo zingabi nembaba, ikakhulukazi uma isikhathi siqhubeka.
Umthombo wombono wokuthi “izibikezelo zivame ukuba yiphutha” esikhathini eside
Kunezizathu eziningana zokuthi kungani izibikezelo zesikhathi eside zizwakala zinganembile:
1. Ukulindela okungalungile: Umphakathi uvame ukulindela ukuqiniseka, kuyilapho lokho okutholakalayo kungamathuba.
2. Isethulo sohlelo lokusebenza lwesimo sezulu: Izinhlelo zokusebenza eziningi zibonisa isithonjana esisodwa nenombolo (isb., izinga lokushisa kanye nethuba lemvula) izinsuku ezingu-14, njengokungathi zisezingeni elifanayo nesibikezelo sakusasa.
3. Ukubandlulula kwendawo: Amamodeli omhlaba wonke angaba mahle ngokuvamile kodwa angafaneleki kahle kwezinye izimo zezulu ezincane.
4. Ushintsho olusheshayo: Izibikezelo zizoshintsha usuku nosuku njengoba idatha entsha ingena futhi amamodeli ebuyekezwa. Lokhu akusho ukuthi amamodeli "adidekile," kodwa kunalokho ukuthi ulwazi olusha luthuthukisa izimo zokuqala.
Ungayisebenzisa kanjani ngokuhlakanipha izibikezelo zesikhathi eside?
Uma udinga ukuhlela imisebenzi kusenesikhathi, nansi indlela yokufunda izibikezelo zesikhathi eside ngendlela engokoqobo:
– Bheka izitayela, hhayi imininingwane: Bheka ukuthi isonto lingase libe manzi noma lome, hhayi ukuthi “ngoLwesibili lina ngo-3 ntambama.”
– Naka amathuba kanye nobubanzi: Uma kutholakala, bheka amathuba emvula kanye nobubanzi bokushisa, hhayi inombolo eyodwa.
– Hlola izibuyekezo ezivamile: Ngemicimbi ebalulekile, qapha izinsuku eziyi-7, izinsuku ezi-3, kanye nosuku olu-1 ngaphambi komcimbi. Ukunemba kuyanda kakhulu eduze kosuku lomcimbi.
– Qhathanisa imithombo eminingi: Uma amamodeli/imithombo eminingi ivumelana, ukuzethemba kuyakhula. Uma ingafani, cabanga ngokungaqiniseki okuphezulu.
– Sebenzisa izixwayiso zakuqala: Ezimweni ezimbi kakhulu, izixwayiso ezisemthethweni zivame ukuba zibaluleke kakhulu kunezibikezelo zamasonto ama-2.
Isiphetho: kunembile ngezitayela, hhayi ngemininingwane ethile
Izibikezelo zezulu zesikhathi eside azithembekile ngokuphelele, kodwa futhi akufanele zihunyushwe njengezikhathi eziqondile. Ngaphezu kwezinsuku ezingu-7-10, izibikezelo zezulu ezinemininingwane ziba lula kakhulu ukwenza amaphutha ngenxa yesiphithiphithi somkhathi kanye nokulinganiselwa kokubuka kanye namamodeli. Kodwa-ke, izibikezelo zesikhathi esiphakathi kuya kwesizini zihlala ziwusizo ekuboneni izitayela: amathuba akhulayo emvula, iziphepho zesomiso ezingaba khona, noma izimpawu zokungalingani kwezinga lokushisa.
Ekugcineni, isihluthulelo ukuqonda uhlobo lolwazi olunikeziwe. Uma lusetshenziswa njengesiqondiso esingaba khona futhi njengendlela yokuthambekela, izibikezelo zesikhathi eside zingaba usizo kakhulu. Uma kubhekwa njengento eqinisekile yansuku zonke, ukudumazeka cishe kuqinisekile.
