Indima Yenhlangano Yesimo Sezulu Yomhlaba Ekulinganisweni Kwedatha
Enkathini yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu okuphuthumayo, izinhlekelele ze-hydrometeorological, kanye nesidingo solwazi lwesimo sezulu lwesikhathi sangempela, ikhwalithi yedatha iyisisekelo esibalulekile sokwenza izinqumo. Idatha yesimo sezulu neye-hydrological ayidingeki kuphela yizikhungo zesimo sezulu zikazwelonke kodwa futhi nayizindiza, ezokuthutha, ezolimo, amandla, ezempilo, kanye nemikhakha yokunciphisa izinhlekelele. Kodwa-ke, idatha eningi ayibalulekile ngokuzenzakalelayo uma ingalingani, ingaqhathaniseki, noma ingashintshisani phakathi kwamazwe. Yilapho i-World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) idlala khona indima ebalulekile: ukuqinisekisa ukuthi idatha yesimo sezulu, yesimo sezulu, kanye neyamanzi emhlabeni wonke inamathela ezindinganisweni ezifanayo ukuze isetshenziswe ngempumelelo, ngokuphephile, nangokuthembekile.
Ukubuka konke kwe-WMO kanye nomsebenzi wayo
I-World Meteorological Organisation iyi-ejensi ekhethekile yeZizwe Ezihlangene (i-UN) egxile kwi-meteorology (isimo sezulu nesimo sezulu), i-hydrology yokusebenza (umjikelezo wamanzi, imifula, izikhukhula), kanye nezinsizakalo zemvelo ezihlobene. I-WMO isebenza njengenkundla yokubambisana phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu ekuthuthukiseni iziqondiso, izinqubo, kanye nemikhuba ehambisanayo. Omunye wemisebenzi yayo ebaluleke kakhulu ukulinganisa idatha: ukusungula "ulimi oluvamile" ukuze okubonwayo okuvela emazweni ahlukene kanye nezinsimbi kungahlanganiswa, kuhlaziywe, futhi kusetshenziselwe izinsizakalo zomphakathi ezingcono.
Ukulinganisa akuyona nje inkinga yobuchwepheshe, kodwa kuyindlela yokwakha ukwethembana. Lapho izwe elilodwa lithumela idatha ngomfutho womoya, imvula, noma izinga lokushisa lolwandle, amanye amazwe kumele aqiniseke ukuthi idatha ilinganiswa ngendlela ethembekile, ifakwe ikhodi njalo, futhi ingahunyushwa ngaphandle kokungabaza.
Kungani kubalulekile ukulinganisa idatha yesimo sezulu?
Idatha yesimo sezulu nesimo sezulu idlula imingcele. Uhlelo lomoya aluqapheli imingcele yokuphatha. Ukunemba kwezibikezelo ezweni elilodwa kuvame ukuxhomeka kudatha evela kwamanye amazwe, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezikhuphuka umoya. Ngaphandle kwezindinganiso, izinkinga ezinjengalezi:
1. Ukungahambisani kwamayunithi nezincazelo: isibonelo, umehluko endleleni yokubala imvula yansuku zonke noma isivinini somoya esimaphakathi.
2. Umehluko ngekhwalithi yethuluzi kanye nezindlela zokulinganisa: izinzwa ezingalinganiswanga zingadala ukuthambekela okuhlelekile.
3. Umehluko ngefomethi kanye ne-metadata: idatha engenalo ulwazi ngendawo, isikhathi sokubuka, ukuphakama kwesiteshi, noma uhlobo lwethuluzi iba nzima ukuyisebenzisa.
4. Izithiyo zokushintshana kwedatha: amafomethi angahambisani enza kube nzima ukuhlanganiswa kwezinhlelo zomhlaba wonke.
Ngenxa yalokho, ukunemba kwamamodeli ezulu anezinombolo (ama-NWP), ukuhlaziywa kwesimo sezulu sesikhathi eside, kanye nezinhlelo zokuxwayisa kusenesikhathi kungancipha. Ukumiswa kwe-WMO kusiza ukuvala lezi zikhala.
Izindinganiso zokubuka: kusukela kumathuluzi kuya ezindleleni zokulinganisa
Indima ye-WMO ekulinganisweni kwedatha iqala esigabeni sokuqala: ukuqaphela. I-WMO ishicilela iziqondiso kanye nemikhuba emihle kakhulu mayelana nokubekwa kwesiteshi, ukuphakama kokufakwa kwenzwa, izikhawu zokulinganisa, kanye nezinqubo zokulawula ikhwalithi. Isibonelo, izindinganiso zikhuluma ngendlela yokulinganisa izinga lokushisa lomoya (ukuvikelwa kwemisebe, umoya ongenisa umoya), indlela yokubeka ama-anemometer ukuze kuncishiswe izithiyo, kanye nezindlela zokulinganisa imvula ngaphansi kwezimo ezahlukahlukene (kufaka phakathi iqhwa noma imvula ehambisana nemimoya enamandla).
I-WMO iphinde ikhuthaze ukuqhathaniswa. Lokhu kusho ukuthi idatha evela ezindaweni ezimbili ezahlukene ayigcini nje "ngokulinganiswa," kodwa ilinganiswa kusetshenziswa izimiso ezifanayo, okuvumela ukuthi ziqhathaniswe nokuhlaziywa kwemikhuba. Lokhu kubaluleke kakhulu ezifundweni zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, lapho umehluko omncane ezindleleni zokubuka ungaletha ukucwaswa kwesikhathi eside.
Ukumiswa kokushintshaniswa kwedatha ngamanethiwekhi omhlaba wonke
I-WMO ikhuthaza ukushintshaniswa kwedatha ngohlaka lomhlaba wonke oluvumela ukugeleza kwedatha yesimo sezulu okuseduze nesikhathi sangempela. Umqondo oyinhloko ukwakha uhlelo oluqinisekisa ukuthi idatha ingahamba isuka eziteshini zasendaweni iye ezikhungweni zikazwelonke, bese iya ezikhungweni zesifunda nezomhlaba wonke, kusetshenziswa amafomethi nezinqubo ezifanayo.
Empeleni, i-WMO ithuthukisa iziqondiso zendlela idatha efakwa ngayo ikhodi, ihlonzwe, futhi idluliselwe ngayo (ezokuxhumana). Lezi zindinganiso ziqinisekisa ukuthi imiyalezo yedatha evela kuma-ocean buoy, ama-radar esimo sezulu, noma iziteshi zasolwandle ingafundwa ezinye izinhlelo ngaphandle kwesidingo sokuguqulwa ngesandla, okungaletha amaphutha.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-WMO igcizelela ukusebenzisana: idatha kumele isetshenziswe yizinhlelo zokusebenza ezahlukahlukene, kusukela ezinsizeni zezindiza kuya ezixwayisweni zezikhukhula. Ngezindinganiso ezifanayo, idatha ingangena ngqo ochungechungeni lokucubungula futhi isekele ukwenza izinqumo ngokushesha.
I-Metadata: "idatha mayelana nedatha" enquma incazelo
Enye yeminikelo ebalulekile ye-WMO ekwenzeni izinto zibe zijwayelekile ukukhuthaza ukusabalala kwe-metadata. Kwisayensi yedatha yanamuhla, idatha engena-metadata ivame ukuba yize. Ngokwedatha yesimo sezulu, i-metadata ifaka:
– izixhumanisi zendawo, ukuphakama kwesiteshi, indawo ezungezile (isb. idolobha/izindawo zasemakhaya),
- isikhathi sokubuka kanye nendawo yesikhathi,
– uhlobo lwethuluzi kanye nemodeli, umlando wokulinganisa,
– ukushintsha indawo yesiteshi noma ukushintsha imishini,
– izindlela zokucubungula (isib. ukulungiswa kokubandlulula, ukuhlunga ikhwalithi).
I-WMO igcizelela ukuthi imethadatha kumele ilandele ifomethi efanayo ukuze ilandeleke emashumini eminyaka. Lokhu kubalulekile ekuhlaziyweni kabusha kwesimo sezulu kanye nokuthola izitayela zesikhathi eside, njengoba izinguquko ezincane ekusetshenzisweni kwezinsimbi noma endaweni zingathinta ukuchazwa kwedatha.
Ukuphathwa Kwekhwalithi: ukuqinisekisa ukuthi idatha inembile futhi ithembekile
Ukumiswa kwesimo akugcini nje ngokuphathelene nefomethi; ikhwalithi yedatha kumele igcinwe. I-WMO ikhuthaza indlela ye-Quality Management System (QMS) yezinsizakalo zesimo sezulu kanye nezamanzi. I-QMS ihlanganisa izinqubo zokulawula ikhwalithi, ukuhlolwa kwamabhuku, imibhalo yenqubo, kanye nokuqeqeshwa kwabasebenzi.
Isibonelo, ukwenyuka okungazelelwe, okweqile kwedatha yokushisa kufanele kuhlatshwe umkhosi futhi kuqinisekiswe, kunokuthi kusetshenziswe ngqo kumamodeli. I-WMO ikhuthaza kokubili izinqubo zokulawula ikhwalithi ezenzakalelayo (ukuhlolwa kwemingcele, ukuvumelana phakathi kwezinguquko) kanye nezinqubo zokulawula ikhwalithi ezenziwe ngesandla (ukuqinisekiswa komhlaziyi). Umphumela wokugcina idatha ethembekile kakhulu yokubikezela isimo sezulu, izixwayiso zakuqala, kanye nokuhlaziywa kwesimo sezulu.
Izindinganiso zezinhlobo ezahlukene zedatha: indawo engaphezulu, ngaphezulu, i-radar, i-satellite, kanye ne-hydrological
Idatha yesimo sezulu ayiveli nje eziteshini eziphezulu. I-WMO ibandakanyeka futhi ekwenzeni idatha ibe yifanayo kusukela ku:
– Ama-radiosondes kanye nokubonwa komkhathi ongaphezulu, okubalulekile ekudwebeni izinga lokushisa, umswakama kanye namaphrofayili omoya.
– I-radar yesimo sezulu, okuhlanganisa izici zokulinganisa kanye nokuchazwa kokukhanya kokulinganisa imvula.
– Amasathelayithi, ahlinzeka ngembobo yomhlaba wonke futhi adinga amazinga okuhlanganiswa ngokubuka okusendaweni.
– I-hydrology yokusebenza, njengezinga lamanzi, ukuphuma komfula, kanye nezinkomba zesomiso.
Ngohlaka oluphelele lwezindinganiso, idatha evela kumapulatifomu amaningi ingahlanganiswa (ukuhlanganiswa kwedatha) ukuze kuqondwe kabanzi. Lokhu kuthuthukisa ikhono lokubona iziphepho, ukuqapha isomiso, kanye nokubikezela izikhukhula.
Umthelela oqondile: kusukela ekubikezelweni kuya enqubweni yomphakathi
Ukumiswa kwe-WMO kube nomthelela wangempela. Okokuqala, izibikezelo zesimo sezulu ziye zaba nembaba ngoba amamodeli omhlaba wonke athola ukufakwa kwedatha okuhambisanayo. Okwesibili, izixwayiso zakuqala ngezinhlekelele—njengeziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo, izikhukhula ezisheshayo, amagagasi okushisa, kanye nemililo yasendle—sezifike ngesikhathi futhi zilinganiswa. Okwesithathu, ukuhlaziywa kwesimo sezulu kwezinqubomgomo zokuzivumelanisa nezimo kanye nokunciphisa isimo kuye kwaba namandla kakhulu ngoba idatha yomlando ingaqhathaniswa kuwo wonke amazwe kanye namashumi eminyaka.
Emkhakheni wezomnotho, ukumiswa kwedatha kusekela ukusebenza kahle kwempahla, ukuphepha kwezokuthutha, kanye nokuhlela amandla avuselelekayo, okuncike kakhulu kudatha yomoya kanye nemisebe yelanga. Emongweni wezempilo, idatha yesimo sezulu ejwayelekile isiza ekuboniseni ingozi yezifo ezihlobene nesimo sezulu kanye nomthelela wamaza okushisa.
Izinselele kanye neziqondiso zesikhathi esizayo
Nakuba i-WMO yakhe isisekelo sezindinganiso zomhlaba wonke, izinselelo zisekhona. Okokuqala, igebe lamandla phakathi kwamazwe lisho ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwezindinganiso akulungile ngaso sonke isikhathi. Amanye amazwe abhekene nemikhawulo engqalasizinda yokubuka, ukuxhaswa ngezimali kwezinzwa, noma izinsizakusebenza eziqeqeshwe. Okwesibili, ukuqhuma kwedatha evela kwi-Intanethi Yezinto (IoT), izinzwa ezibiza kancane, kanye nokuthunyelwa kwedatha yezakhamuzi eziningi kuphakamisa umbuzo: singaqinisekisa kanjani ikhwalithi yazo kanye nokuhambisana kwazo nezindinganiso ze-WMO? Okwesithathu, isidingo sedatha yesikhathi sangempela, enesisombululo esiphezulu samadolobha amakhulu sidinga izinhlelo zokushintshana kwedatha ezisheshayo neziphephile.
I-WMO iyaqhubeka nokukhuthaza ukwenziwa kwezindinganiso zedatha zibe zesimanje ukuze kuhambisane nentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe, okuhlanganisa ukusebenzisana kwedatha evulekile, izinhlelo zedijithali eziguquguqukayo, kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwemithombo eminingi. Umgomo uhlala ufana: ukuqinisekisa ukuthembeka kwedatha yesimo sezulu kanye neyamanzi kanye nekhono lokuyisebenzisa ngaphesheya kwemingcele.
Isiphetho
Indima ye-World Meteorological Organisation ekulinganisweni kwedatha iyinsika yokubambisana komhlaba wonke ngesimo sezulu, isimo sezulu kanye namanzi. Kusukela ezindinganisweni zokulinganisa kanye ne-metadata kuya ekushintshisaneni kwedatha kanye nokuphathwa kwekhwalithi, i-WMO iqinisekisa ukuthi ulwazi olukhiqizwa amazwe ahlukene lungahlanganiswa futhi lusetshenziswe njalo. Ekugcineni, ukulinganiswa akugcini nje ngokuthuthukisa ukunemba kokubikezela isayensi nobuchwepheshe kodwa futhi kusindisa izimpilo, kuvikela izimpahla, futhi kusiza umhlaba ukuthi uzivumelanise nezinselele zesimo sezulu eziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu.
Uma ufisa, ngingaguqula lesi sihloko sibe yisitayela sezemfundo esigcwele ngezinkomba, noma ngigxile engxoxweni esicini esisodwa (isib. amazinga e-metadata, uhlelo lokushintshana kwedatha lwe-WMO, noma i-QMS yezikhungo zezulu zikazwelonke).
