Kuyini i-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?
I-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ingenye yezenzakalo zesimo sezulu ezibaluleke kakhulu eMhlabeni, ezithinta kakhulu amaphethini esimo sezulu emhlabeni wonke, okuhlanganisa nase-Indonesia. I-ENSO akuyona nje "i-El Niño," njengoba ivame ukubizwa kanjalo, kodwa iwuhlelo lokusebenzisana phakathi kolwandle nomoya oLwandlekazi iPacific olushisayo. Izinguquko ekushiseni kolwandle, isiqondiso somoya namandla, kanye namaphethini okucindezela komoya kulesi sifunda kungabangela uchungechunge lwemiphumela esakazeka emhlabeni wonke—kusukela ezinguqukweni zesizini yemvula, isomiso, izikhukhula, kuya ekuphazamisekeni kwemikhakha yezolimo nezokudoba.
Ukuqonda imigomo: El Niño, La Niña, kanye ne-Southern Oscillation
I-ENSO inezimo ezintathu eziyinhloko: i-El Niño, i-La Niña, kanye nesigaba sokungathathi hlangothi. Amagama amabili aziwa kakhulu yi-El Niño kanye ne-La Niña, kodwa empeleni ayingxenye yesistimu eyodwa enkulu. Okwamanje, igama elithi Southern Oscillation libhekisela ezinguqukweni zomfutho womoya phakathi kwePacific esentshonalanga (ezungeze i-Indonesia ne-Australia) kanye nePacific empumalanga (eduze nogu lwaseNingizimu Melika). Lolu shintsho lomfutho luhlobene nezinguquko emimoyeni yezohwebo, evame ukuvunguza isuka empumalanga iye entshonalanga eduze kwe-equator.
Kafushane:
– I-El Niño: ukufudumala okungavamile (okungavamile okufudumele) kwamazinga okushisa olwandle ePacific ephakathi-empumalanga.
– I-La Niña: ukupholisa okungavamile (i-anomaly yokubanda) endaweni efanayo.
– Ukujikijeleka KwaseNingizimu: izinguquko emaphethini okucindezela komoya ahambisana futhi aqinisa zombili lezi zimo.
Ngenxa yokuthi lolu hlelo luhilela izingxenye ezimbili ngesikhathi esisodwa—ulwandle (i-El Niño/La Niña) kanye nomkhathi (i-Southern Oscillation)—ochwepheshe bakubiza ngokuthi “ukuguquguquka” noma ukuguquguquka okuvamile ezimweni zezulu.
Isebenza kanjani i-ENSO?
Ukuze siqonde i-ENSO, sidinga ukucabangela izimo "ezivamile" ePacific eshisayo. Ngaphansi kwezimo ezingathathi hlangothi, imimoya yezohwebo ivunguza isuka empumalanga (eduze kwaseNingizimu Melika) iye entshonalanga (ibheke e-Indonesia). Le mimoya ibangela amanzi afudumele olwandle ukuba aqoqeke entshonalanga yePacific, okuholela emanzini afudumele azungeze i-Indonesia. La manzi afudumele abangela ukuhwamuka okukhulu, ukwakheka kwamafu, kanye nemvula. Lesi esinye sezizathu ezenza i-Indonesia nezindawo ezizungezile ngokuvamile zibe nomswakama futhi zithole imvula enkulu.
Okwamanje, empumalanga yePacific, njengoba amanzi afudumele esunduzelwa ngasentshonalanga, ukukhuphuka (ukuphakama kwamanzi abandayo olwandle kusuka ekujuleni) kwenzeka eduze nogu lwaseNingizimu Melika. Lokhu kuphakama kucebile ngezakhamzimba, okwenza lesi sifunda saziwe ngokudoba okukhiqizayo.
Uma i-ENSO ishintshela ku-El Niño noma ku-La Niña, lezi zindlela ezijwayelekile ziyashintsha.
U-El Niño: lapho i-Pacific empumalanga ifudumala
Ngesikhathi sesigaba se-El Niño, imimoya yokuhweba iba buthaka noma ibuyele emuva ngezikhathi ezithile. Ngenxa yalokho, amanzi afudumele avame ukuqongelela entshonalanga yePacific abuyela emuva ePacific ephakathi nasempumalanga. Amazinga okushisa olwandle ePacific ephakathi nasempumalanga akhuphuka ngaphezu kokujwayelekile.
Umthelela osheshayo:
– Indawo yokwakheka kwamafu nemvula evame ukuba namandla ezungeze i-Indonesia ingathuthela ePacific ephakathi.
– I-Indonesia ne-Australia zisengozini enkulu yokuncipha kwemvula kanye nesomiso ezindaweni eziningi.
– Ezinye izindawo eNingizimu Melika zingase zibe nemvula eningi kunokujwayelekile.
I-El Niño ivame ukuhlotshaniswa nezinkathi zesomiso ezinde, ingozi eyengeziwe yemililo yamahlathi neyomhlaba, kanye nokuncipha kwamanzi kwezinye izindawo. Kodwa-ke, imiphumela yayo ingahluka kuzo zonke izifunda e-Indonesia ngenxa yethonya lendawo, imisinga yolwandle yendawo, kanye nezinye izici zesimo sezulu.
I-La Niña: lapho i-Pacific empumalanga iphola
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngesikhathi sesigaba seLa Niña, imimoya yezohwebo ivame ukuqina. Lokhu kusunduza amanzi amaningi afudumele ngasentshonalanga (e-Indonesia), kuyilapho ukukhuphuka kwamanzi abandayo empumalanga yePacific kuqina. Ngenxa yalokho, amazinga okushisa olwandle empumalanga yePacific ephakathi aphansi kunokuvamile.
Imiphumela evamile yeLa Niña:
– Izifunda zase-Indonesia zinamathuba amaningi okubhekana nemvula engaphezu kwejwayelekile.
– Ingozi yezikhukhula kanye nokudilika komhlaba iyanda kwezinye izindawo, ikakhulukazi ngesikhathi sezimvula ezinkulu.
– Isikhathi semvula singafika kusenesikhathi noma siqhubeke isikhathi eside, yize singasabalaliswa ngokulinganayo ngaso sonke isikhathi.
Kodwa-ke, iLa Niña ayisho imvula eqhubekayo, engaphazanyiswa. Imane ishintsha amathuba kanye nobukhulu bemvula—ngakho amathuba ezenzakalo zemvula enkulu ayanda ngezikhathi ezithile.
Kwenzeka kangaki i-ENSO?
I-ENSO ayenzeki minyaka yonke ngephethini efanayo. Ngokuvamile, lesi simo senzeka njalo eminyakeni emi-2 kuya kwengu-7, kanti isigaba se-El Niño noma se-La Niña sihlala izinyanga ezingu-9-12, futhi ngezinye izikhathi isikhathi eside. Ukuqina kuyahlukahluka: kukhona ama-El Niño “abuthakathaka,” “aphakathi,” kanye “naqinile”. Kunjalo nange-La Niña.
Ososayensi baqapha i-ENSO ngezinkomba ezahlukahlukene, njenge:
– Izimo ezingavamile zokushisa kolwandle (SST) esifundeni saseNiño 3.4 (esinye sezindawo ezibalulekile ePacific).
– Inkomba Yokujikijela YaseNingizimu (i-SOI) ebonisa umehluko ekucindezelweni komoya phakathi kweTahiti neDarwin (e-Australia).
– Ukuqaphela umoya, amafu, kanye nokushisa kolwandle.
Ngedatha yesathelayithi, ama-buoy, namamodeli esimo sezulu, izibikezelo ze-ENSO manje sezinembile kakhulu, yize kusekhona ukungaqiniseki okuthile, ikakhulukazi ngesikhathi sokuguquka kwesizini (ngokuvamile okubizwa ngokuthi “isithiyo sokubikezela kwentwasahlobo”).
Umthelela we-ENSO e-Indonesia
I-Indonesia yisifunda esizwela kakhulu i-ENSO. Ngokuvamile:
– I-El Niño ivame ukuhlotshaniswa nezinkathi ezomile ezomile, izinkathi zemvula ezibambezelekile, ukuncipha kokugeleza kwamanzi emifuleni, ukuphazamiseka kokukhiqizwa kwezitshalo zerayisi nokudla, kanye nengozi eyengeziwe yemililo yamahlathi neyomhlaba.
– I-La Niña ivame ukwandisa imvula, yandise ingozi yezikhukhula kanye nokudilika komhlaba, futhi ingaphazamisa imisebenzi yezolimo uma kuvela imvula eningi ngesikhathi sezigaba ezithile zokukhula.
Umthelela we-ENSO usabalala nakweminye imikhakha elandelayo:
– Olwandle kanye nokudoba: izinguquko ekushiseni kanye nemisinga yolwandle zithinta ukusabalala kwezinhlanzi.
– Impilo: isomiso, umusi, noma izikhukhula kungandisa ingozi yezifo ezithile.
– Umnotho: ukuphazamiseka komkhiqizo wezolimo kanye nezinhlekelele ze-hydrometeorological kungabangela ukulahlekelwa okukhulu.
Kodwa-ke, i-ENSO akuyona yodwa ebangela isimo sezulu e-Indonesia. Ezinye izici zifaka phakathi i-Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), i-Asia-Australia Monsoon, kanye nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu okufana ne-Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Ukuhlanganiswa kwalezi zici kungaqinisa noma kunciphise umthelela we-ENSO.
Kungani ukuqonda i-ENSO kubalulekile?
Ukuqonda i-ENSO kusisiza ukuthi silindele. Uma izibikezelo zibonisa ukuthi kungenzeka i-El Niño, isibonelo, uhulumeni nemiphakathi bangaqinisa izindlela zokunciphisa isomiso, balungiselele amaphethini okutshala ahambisanayo, baphathe izindawo zokugcina amanzi, futhi bandise ukulungela umlilo. Uma i-La Niña iyisenzakalo esingaba khona, amalungiselelo angagxila ekuphathweni kwamanzi amdaka, ukulungela izikhukhula, kanye nokunciphisa ukudilika komhlaba.
Ngokuphathelene nesayensi kanye nenqubomgomo yomphakathi, i-ENSO iphinde inikeze isibonelo esinamandla sokuthi izinguquko ezincane ohlelweni lolwandle nomoya esifundeni esisodwa zingaba nemiphumela ethinta kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, ukuqapha i-ENSO kuyingxenye ebalulekile yesistimu yokuxwayisa kusenesikhathi yesimo sezulu emhlabeni jikelele.
I-Penutup
I-El Niño Southern Oscillation iyisimo sezulu esivela ekusebenzisaneni okuguquguqukayo phakathi koLwandlekazi iPacific olushisayo kanye nomkhathi ongaphezulu. Ngokushintsha kwezinga lokushisa lolwandle kanye nomfutho womoya, i-ENSO ithonya umoya, imvula, kanye namaphethini esimo sezulu kuzo zonke izifunda, okuhlanganisa ne-Indonesia. I-El Niño ivame ukwandisa ingozi yesomiso, kuyilapho i-La Niña ivame ukuhlotshaniswa nemvula enkulu kanye namathuba ezinhlekelele ze-hydrometeorological. Ngokuqapha okufanele kanye nezimpendulo ezifanele, imiphumela emibi ye-ENSO ingancishiswa, futhi imikhakha ebalulekile njengezolimo, ukuphathwa kwamanzi, kanye nokulungiselela izinhlekelele ingalungiselelwa kangcono lokhu kushintshashintsha kwesimo sezulu okuphindaphindayo.
