Ucwaningo Lobudlelwano Phakathi Kwemvula Nokushisa Kolwandle Emanzini Ashisayo
I-Pendahuluan
Amanzi asezindaweni ezishisayo ayisici esibalulekile ohlelweni lwesimo sezulu somhlaba wonke. Lesi sifunda sithola amazinga aphezulu emisebe yelanga unyaka wonke, okwenza izilwandle ezishisayo zibe amandla ashukumisayo okujikeleza komoya nolwandle. Izinguquko ezimbili ezithinta kakhulu isimo sezulu kanye nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ezindaweni ezishisayo yimvula kanye nokushisa kolwandle (SST). Imvula ithonya ukutholakala kwamanzi, ezolimo, kanye nengozi yezinhlekelele ze-hydrometeorological, kuyilapho i-SST isebenza njengomthombo wamandla wokwakheka kwamafu ajikelezayo, iziphepho zasezindaweni ezishisayo, kanye nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu njenge-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Ukuqonda ubudlelwano phakathi kwalezi zinto ezimbili kubalulekile ekuthuthukiseni amakhono okubikezela isimo sezulu kanye nesimo sezulu, ikakhulukazi emazweni aseziqhingini zasezindaweni ezishisayo njenge-Indonesia.
Imiqondo Eyisisekelo Yemvula Nokushisa Kolwandle
Imvula ezindaweni ezishisayo ngokuvamile ilawulwa yizinqubo zokudonsa umoya. Ukushisa okukhulu ebusweni kubangela ukuhwamuka kwamanzi, okubangela ukuba umoya omanzi ukhuphuke, uphole, bese ujiya ukuze wakhe amafu nemvula. Ngakho-ke, ukutholakala komhwamuko wamanzi kanye nezimo zomkhathi ezisekela ukuphakama kubalulekile.
Okwamanje, i-SST iyinkomba yenani lokushisa eligcinwe ezingqimbeni zolwandle olungaphezulu. I-SST efudumele inyusa izinga lokuhwamuka, inyusa umswakama eduze kobuso, futhi ihlinzeka ngamandla afihlekile aqinisa izinqubo zokudonsa umoya. Kodwa-ke, ubudlelwano bemvula ne-SST abuhlali buqondile. Imvula ithonywa nomoya, ukuzinza komoya, ukuguquguquka okukhulu (izimvula ezinkulu, amagagasi omoya), kanye nezici zendawo ezifana ne-topography kanye nemisinga yolwandle.
Izindlela Ezibonakalayo Ezixhumanisa i-SST kanye nemvula
Ubudlelwano phakathi kwe-SST nemvula emanzini ashisayo bungachazwa ngezindlela eziningana eziyinhloko:
1. Ukuhwamuka kanye nokutholakala komhwamuko wamanzi
Ama-SST afudumele andisa ukuhwamuka kwamanzi. Uma umhwamuko wamanzi uningi emkhathini, amathuba okwakheka kwamafu emvula ayanda, ikakhulukazi uma kukhona izindlela zokuphakamisa. Ezindaweni ezishisayo ezinomswakama, amazinga ambalwa okwanda kwe-SST angakhuphula kakhulu ukugeleza komhwamuko wamanzi.
2. Umkhawulo wokushisa obalulekile kanye nowe-convection
Ucwaningo lwesimo sezulu luvame ukukhombisa umkhawulo othize we-SST (ovame ukubizwa ngokuthi cishe ama-26–27°C) lapho ukuguquguquka okujulile kungenzeka khona. Uma ama-SST engaphezu kwalesi silinganiso, umkhathi uvame ukungazinzile, amafu e-cumulonimbus avame ukwakheka, futhi imvula enkulu ivame ukwenzeka. Kodwa-ke, lo mkhawulo awuphelele, njengoba uthonywa umswakama we-tropospheric, ukucheba komoya, kanye nokuguquguquka kwesifunda.
3. Ukujikeleza komoya okukhulu
Ama-SST afudumele esifundeni esisodwa uma kuqhathaniswa nendawo ezungezile adala amazinga okushisa kanye nokucindezela angashintsha isiqondiso namandla omoya. Lokhu kubangela ukuhlangana komoya phezu kwamanzi afudumele kanye nokwahlukana ezindaweni ezipholile. Ukuhlangana kuphoqa umoya ukuba ukhuphuke futhi kusekele imvula, kuyilapho ukungafani kuvame ukucindezela ukwakheka kwamafu.
4. Impendulo yemisebe yamafu
Uma i-convection ikhiqiza amafu aminyene, imisebe yelanga efika ebusweni bolwandle iyancishiswa, okubangela ukuba i-SST inciphe. Ngokuphambene nalokho, ebusuku, amafu angavimbela ukulahlekelwa ukushisa emoyeni. Lokhu kusebenzisana kwezindlela ezimbili kudala ubudlelwano obuguquguqukayo phakathi kwemvula ne-SST: ngezinye izikhathi i-SST ibangela imvula, kodwa imvula namafu nakho kungapholisa i-SST.
Ukuguquguquka Kwesizini: Indima Yezimvula kanye ne-ITCZ
Ezindaweni eziningi ezishisayo, okuhlanganisa neNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia, ukushintshashintsha kwemvula kuthonywa kakhulu izinhlelo zezimvula. Ngesikhathi sesizini yezimvula ezimanzi, imimoya ithwala umoya omanzi usuka olwandle uye ezweni, okwandisa ukuhlangana kanye nemvula. Ama-SST afudumele akhulisa ukutholakala komhwamuko wamanzi, kodwa ukwanda kwemvula kuvame ukubangelwa kakhulu izinguquko emaphethini omoya wezimvula ngokwawo.
Ngaphandle kwemvula enkulu, ukushintsha kwe-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) nakho kunomthelela omkhulu. I-ITCZ iyibhande elinomfutho ophansi lapho imimoya yezohwebo ihlangana khona, okubangela ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nemvula. Lapho i-ITCZ idlula phezu kwamanzi ane-SST ephezulu, ukuqina kwemvula kunganda. Ngokuphambene nalokho, uma i-ITCZ ikude nendawo, imvula izoncipha noma ngabe i-SST yendawo ifudumele.
Ukuguquguquka Kwaminyaka Yonke: i-ENSO kanye ne-IOD
Ubudlelwano phakathi kwe-SST nemvula buyabonakala futhi ngezinga eliphakathi konyaka ngezimo ezifana ne-ENSO kanye ne-Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
- ENSO (El Niño neLa Niña)
Ngesikhathi se-El Niño, ukufudumala kwama-SST ePacific ephakathi nendawo kuyashintsha indawo ephakathi nendawo yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ibe sempumalanga, okuvame ukubangela ukwehla kwemvula kanye nesomiso e-Indonesia. Ngokuphambene nalokho, iLa Niña ngokuvamile ikhulisa ama-SST ahlobene entshonalanga yePacific futhi iqinisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ezindaweni zasolwandle, okwandisa imvula kanye nengozi yezikhukhula.
– IOD (i-Indian Ocean Dipole)
Ngesikhathi sesigaba se-IOD esihle, amanzi asentshonalanga yeSumatra neJava avame ukuba pholile, anciphise ukugeleza kwamanzi kanye nemvula entshonalanga ye-Indonesia, kuyilapho ekhulisa imvula entshonalanga ye-Indian Ocean eduze neMpumalanga Afrika. I-IOD engemihle ivame ukwenza okuphambene nalokho, okwandisa amathuba emvula entshonalanga ye-Indonesia.
Lezi zimo ezimbili zibonisa ukuthi akuzona nje kuphela izindinganiso ze-SST zendawo ezibalulekile, kodwa futhi namaphethini angavamile e-SST yesifunda alawula izinguquko ekujikelezeni komoya.
Izinto Ezingaqondile Nezididayo
Nakuba ama-SST afudumele evame ukuhlotshaniswa nemvula enkulu, kunezikhathi lapho ama-SST afudumele engakhiqizi imvula enkulu. Ezinye izinto ezibangela lokhu zifaka:
– Ukuqina okuphezulu komoya: Isendlalelo somoya esizinzile noma ukuba khona kokuguquka kwezinga lokushisa kungavimbela umoya ukuthi ungakhuphuki yize umswakama uphezulu.
– Imimoya enamandla yokucheba eqondile: I-Convection ingase ihlukaniswe noma ingahlelekile.
– Ukungena komoya owomile: Umoya owomile osendlalelo esiphakathi ungavimbela ukwakheka kwamafu emvula.
– Izinguquko emifudlaneni yolwandle kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanzi: Ukukhuphuka kwamanzi kupholisa ubuso bolwandle, ngaleyo ndlela kunciphisa ukugeleza kwamanzi ezindaweni ezithile ezisogwini, isibonelo eningizimu yeJava ngesikhathi semvula yasempumalanga.
Ngakho-ke, i-SST iyisimo "sikaphethiloli", kodwa umkhathi unquma ukuthi lowo phethiloli ungasetshenziswa yini ukudala imvula.
Indlela Yokuhlaziya ye-SST kanye nobudlelwano bemvula
Izifundo zobudlelwano phakathi kwe-SST nemvula zivame ukusebenzisa izindlela zezibalo nezishintshashintshayo, okuhlanganisa:
1. Ukuhlangana nokubuyela emuva ukuze kubonwe ubudlelwano phakathi kokungalingani kwe-SST kanye nokungalingani kwemvula esikalini esithile sesikhathi (ngenyanga, ngezikhathi ezithile zonyaka).
2. Ukuhlaziywa kokulibaziseka (ukubambezeleka kwesikhathi) ngoba i-SST ingandulela izinguquko zemvula noma okuphambene nalokho. Isibonelo, amasonto ambalwa okufudumala ku-SST angalandelwa ukwanda kokuguquguquka kwe-convection.
3. Imicimbi ehlanganisiwe njengokuqhathanisa amaphethini emvula ngesikhathi se-El Niño enamandla uma kuqhathaniswa ne-La Niña enamandla.
4. Amamodeli ezinombolo (esifunda kanye nasemhlabeni jikelele) ukuhlola izindlela ezibangela kanye nezimo zokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.
Ikhwalithi yedatha nayo ibalulekile. I-SST ingatholakala kumasathelayithi kanye nokuhlaziywa kabusha, kuyilapho imvula ingatholakala ekubonweni kwesiteshi, i-radar, noma imikhiqizo yesathelayithi (isb., i-TRMM/GPM). Ukuhlanganiswa kwemithombo eminingi kuvame ukudingeka ukuze kuncishiswe ukubandlulula.
Imiphumela Yokubikezela Nokunciphisa
Ukuqonda ubudlelwano phakathi kwe-SST nemvula kunikeza izinzuzo ezingokoqobo. Izinto ezingavamile ze-SST olwandle olushisayo zingasetshenziswa njengezinkomba zokuqala zokubikezela izinkathi zemvula, isomiso, kanye nezikhukhula ezingaba khona. E-Indonesia, ulwazi mayelana nentuthuko ye-ENSO kanye ne-IOD selube yingxenye ebalulekile yezinhlelo zokuxwayisa kusenesikhathi ngesimo sezulu. Umkhakha wezolimo ungalungisa amashejuli okutshala, abaphathi bemithombo yamanzi bangahlela ukusebenza kwamachibi, futhi uhulumeni angathuthukisa ukulungela izinhlekelele.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, esimweni sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ukufudumala komhlaba kuvame ukwandisa i-SST ejwayelekile. Lokhu kunamandla okuqinisa umjikelezo wamanzi: ukuhwamuka kuyanda, umkhathi ugcina umhwamuko wamanzi omningi, futhi ukuqina kwezehlakalo zemvula enkulu kunganda, yize ukusatshalaliswa kwemvula iyonke kungase kungabi njalo kufana kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, ucwaningo lwemvula ye-SST lubalulekile futhi ekuqondeni izinguquko emaphethini emvula yesikhathi esizayo kanye nokuhlola ingozi yezinhlekelele zezulu.
Isiphetho
Ubudlelwano phakathi kwemvula kanye nokushisa kolwandle emanzini ashisayo buqinile kodwa buyinkimbinkimbi. Ama-SST afudumele ngokuvamile andisa ukuhwamuka kwamanzi futhi athanda ukujikeleza kwamanzi, ngaleyo ndlela ahlotshaniswa nokwanda kwemvula. Kodwa-ke, umphumela wokugcina uthonywa kakhulu yizimo zomkhathi ezinkulu njengemvula, i-ITCZ, i-ENSO, kanye ne-IOD, kanye nezimo zendawo ezifana nokukhuphuka kwamanzi kanye nemisinga yolwandle. Lobu budlelwano buhilela nempendulo ezinhlangothini ezimbili: imvula namafu kunganciphisa ama-SST ngokunciphisa imisebe kanye nokupholisa indawo. Izifundo ezihlanganisa idatha yokubuka, ukuhlaziywa kwezibalo, kanye nomodeli wezinombolo ziyisihluthulelo sokuqonda lezi zindlela nokuthuthukisa amakhono okubikezela, okungenzeka kuzuze ukuhlela intuthuko, ukuphepha kokudla, kanye nokunciphisa izinhlekelele ezindaweni ezishisayo.
