Ukuqapha Nokubikezela I-Tsunami Kusetshenziswa I-Geophysics
Ama-tsunami aphakathi kwezinhlekelele zemvelo ezibulalayo kakhulu ngoba afika ngokushesha, ahamba ibanga elide, futhi avame ukulandela ukuzamazama komhlaba okukhulu okulimaza ingqalasizinda. Ezindaweni eziningi ezisogwini—ikakhulukazi lezo eziseduze nezindawo ezingaphansi komhlaba—isikhathi esiphakathi komthombo we-tsunami kanye nomthelela wamagagasi singaba imizuzu embalwa kuya kweyishumi yemizuzu. Ngakho-ke, ukuqapha okusheshayo kanye nokubikezela okunembile kubalulekile ekusindiseni izimpilo. I-Geophysics idlala indima ebalulekile kulo lonke le nqubo: kusukela ekutholeni ukuzamazama komhlaba okubangela, ukulinganisa ukuguquka komhlaba wolwandle, ukuqapha izinguquko ezingeni lolwandle, kanye nokusebenzisa amamodeli ezinombolo ukubikezela ukuphakama kwamagagasi kanye nezikhathi zokufika. Lesi sihloko sixoxa ngendlela i-geophysics esetshenziswa ngayo ekuqapheni nasekubikezeleni i-tsunami, kanye nezinselele kanye neziqondiso zentuthuko.
I-Tsunami kanye nendlela yayo yokukhiqiza
Iningi lama-tsunami amakhulu abangelwa ukuzamazama komhlaba kwe-tectonic phansi kolwandle, ikakhulukazi ukuzamazama komhlaba kwe-megathrust ezindaweni ezingaphansi komhlaba, okubangela ukuphakama noma ukwehla okungazelelwe kolwandle. Lolu shintsho oluqondile lususa ikholomu yamanzi ngezinga elikhulu, ludala amagagasi amade, anamandla aphezulu. Ngaphandle kokuzamazama komhlaba, ama-tsunami angabangelwa nokudilika komhlaba ngaphansi kwamanzi, ukuwa kwezintaba-mlilo, ukuqhuma kwezintaba-mlilo okususa amanzi, kanye (okungavamile kakhulu) imithelela ye-meteorite. Ngenxa yezindlela ezahlukahlukene zokubangela, izinhlelo zokuqapha i-tsunami zanamuhla azinciki ku-sensor eyodwa kodwa kunethiwekhi yezinsimbi ezihambisanayo.
Indima ye-seismology: ukutholakala okusheshayo kokuzamazama komhlaba okubangela izithiyo
Isinyathelo sokuqala esixwayisweni se-tsunami ngokuvamile ukubona ukuzamazama komhlaba. Inethiwekhi ye-seismometers esemhlabeni kanye neyasolwandle iqopha amagagasi okuzamazama komhlaba futhi ivumela ukuqagela okusheshayo kwendawo ye-epicenter, ukujula, kanye nobukhulu. Ngezinjongo ze-tsunami, imingcele ebalulekile akuyona nje ubukhulu obujwayelekile (isb., i-Mw), kodwa futhi nendlela yomthombo kanye nenani lokufuduka okuqondile phansi kolwandle. Ukuzamazama komhlaba okunobukhulu obukhulu kodwa okuvame kakhulu ukushaywa kuvame ukukhiqiza ama-tsunami amancane kunokuzamazama komhlaba okukhiqiza ukushukuma.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-geophysics yanamuhla isebenzisa imiqondo efana nokulinganisa ubukhulu besikhathi eside kanye nobude bokuqhekeka ukuze kutholakale ukuzamazama komhlaba "kwe-tsunamigenic". Kunezimo zokuzamazama komhlaba "kwe-tsunami," okuwukuzamazama komhlaba okungezwakali kahle emhlabeni kodwa okudala ama-tsunami amakhulu ngoba amandla akhishwayo ahlala isikhathi eside futhi ayenzeka eduze komsele. Ukuhlaziywa okusheshayo kusetshenziswa idatha yokuzamazama komhlaba yesikhathi eside kungasiza ekunciphiseni ingozi yokubala okungalungile.
Kodwa-ke, isayensi yokuzamazama komhlaba iyodwa ayanele. Ukuzamazama komhlaba okukhulu akuhlali kudala ama-tsunami abhubhisayo, futhi ngokuphambene nalokho, imithombo engeyona ukuzamazama komhlaba ingadala ama-tsunami endawo ayingozi. Ngakho-ke, kudingeka izilinganiso eziqondile zokuguquka kwe-crustal kanye nolwandle.
I-Geodesy (GNSS) kanye nokuguqulwa kwe-crustal: ukulinganisa "ukuthi" ukushintsha "kungakanani"
Ukubuka kwe-GNSS/GPS kunikeza ulwazi lwesikhathi sangempela mayelana nokuhamba komhlaba. Ngesikhathi sokuzamazama komhlaba okukhulu, iziteshi ze-GNSS zasogwini zingaqopha ukufuduka komhlaba okuhlala njalo okungamamitha amaningana. Lolu lwazi lubaluleke kakhulu ekulinganiseni ukushelela kwezindiza ezingalungile nokuguqula kube ukuguqulwa kolwandle okubangela ama-tsunami.
Kwezinye izinhlelo zokuxwayisa zakuqala, i-GNSS yesikhathi sangempela ihlanganiswa nedatha yokuzamazama komhlaba ukuze kutholakale izixazululo eziqinile zemithombo yokuzamazama komhlaba, ikakhulukazi ukuzamazama komhlaba okukhulu kakhulu (Mw > 8) okuvame ukugcwala izindlela zokuzamazama komhlaba ezisheshayo. Nge-GNSS, izilinganiso zesikhathi sokuzamazama komhlaba kanye namaphethini okuguqulwa komhlaba zingatholakala ngemizuzu embalwa bese zisetshenziswa njengokufaka kokuqala kokumodela kwe-tsunami.
Enye intuthuko ukusetshenziswa kwe-InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) kusuka kumasathelayithi ukuze kudwetshwe imininingwane yokuguqulwa kokuzamazama komhlaba ngemva kokuzamazama komhlaba. Nakuba kungeyona njalo into yangempela, i-InSAR iwusizo kakhulu ekuhlolweni okusheshayo kwangemva kwemicimbi, ekucwengisiseni amamodeli omthombo, kanye nasekuthuthukiseni ikhwalithi yamamephu engozi ye-tsunami yesikhathi esizayo.
Izinsimbi zokuhlola ulwandle: ama-tide gauges kanye nezinzwa zokucindezela phansi kolwandle
Ukuqinisekiswa kwe-tsunami kudinga ukuqashelwa ngqo kokushintsha kwezinga lamanzi. Ama-tide gauge emachwebeni nasezindaweni ezisogwini aqopha ukungalingani kwezinga lamanzi okungabonisa amagagasi e-tsunami. Inzuzo yawo ukuthi idatha kulula ukuyithola futhi inethiwekhi yawo inkulu. Ububi ukuthi ama-tide gauge atholakala ogwini, lapho amagagasi angathinteka khona ngesimo se-bay, izakhiwo zechweba, noma i-resonance yendawo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, kuma-tsunami aseduze nomthombo, ama-tide gauge angawaqopha lapho igagasi selicishe lingene ezweni.
Ngakho-ke, izinhlelo zesimanje zisebenzisa nezinzwa zokucindezela phansi kolwandle emanzini ajulile, njengomqondo we-Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami (DART). Lezi zinzwa zilinganisa izinguquko zokucindezela ezibangelwa ukudlula kwamagagasi e-tsunami futhi ziwadlulisele ngama-buoy kuma-satellite. Ukulinganisa kolwandle olujulile kubalulekile ngoba amagagasi e-tsunami lapho ane-amplitude encane (ngokuvamile amasentimitha ambalwa kuya kwamashumi amasentimitha) kodwa angatholakala ngezinsimbi ezinembe kakhulu. Lolu lwazi lusiza ukuqinisekisa ukuthi ukuzamazama komhlaba kudale i-tsunami ebalulekile futhi kuthuthukisa ukubikezela kokuphakama kwamagagasi ogwini.
Ukumodela ngezinombolo: kusukela kudatha yomthombo kuya ekubikezelweni kwezikhathi zokufika kanye nokuphakama kwamagagasi
Ukubikezela i-tsunami kuyinkinga enkulu ye-physics yamagagasi: ukuthi ukuphazamiseka kobuso bolwandle kusakazeka kanjani olwandle futhi kuhlangana kanjani ne-topography yaphansi kolwandle (i-bathymetry) kanye ne-contours yogu lolwandle. Amamodeli ezinombolo asebenzisa izibalo zamanzi angajulile noma ukuhlukahluka kwawo ukuze abale ukusabalala kwamagagasi, ukujiya, ukuphambuka, kanye nokushona njengoba engena emanzini angajulile.
Ezinhlelweni zokuxwayisa zakuqala, ukumodela kwenziwa kusetshenziswa izindlela ezimbili ezijwayelekile:
1. Izimo ezibaliwe kusengaphambili (isizindalwazi): Izinkulungwane kuya kwezigidi zezimo ze-tsunami zibaliwe kusengaphambili ukuze kutholakale imithombo eyahlukahlukene yokuzamazama komhlaba. Uma kwenzeka ukuzamazama komhlaba, uhlelo lukhetha isimo esiseduze kakhulu ngokusekelwe kumapharamitha okuqala bese lukhipha ngokushesha isikhathi sokufika esilinganiselwe kanye nokuphakama kwamagagasi.
2. Ukuguqulwa kwedatha yesikhathi sangempela kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwayo: Idatha yesenzwa yokucindezela kolwandle, i-Seismic, kanye ne-ocean pressure isetshenziselwa ukulinganisa umthombo ngokunembile, bese kwenziwa ukulingisa noma kulungiswe ngokuguquguqukayo. Le ndlela ingathuthukisa ukunemba, ikakhulukazi ezenzakalweni eziyinkimbinkimbi, kodwa idinga ukubalwa okuqinile kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwedatha.
Ikhwalithi yokubikezela incike kakhulu ekulinganisweni okuphezulu kwe-bathymetry kanye ne-topography, njengoba ukuma kwephansi lolwandle kanye nomthambeka ogwini kunquma kakhulu ukuthi amagagasi azogxila noma azobuthakathaka kuphi. Ama-bay amancane angakhulisa ama-tsunami ngokuzwakala kwe-resonance, kuyilapho ama-reef noma amathafa abanzi asogwini angashintsha amaphethini okugeleza.
Izinselele ezibalulekile: isikhathi, ukungaqiniseki, kanye nemithombo engeyona eye-tectonic
Kunezinselele ezintathu ezinkulu ekuqapheni nasekubikezeleni i-tsunami.
Okokuqala, i-tsunami inesikhathi esilinganiselwe kakhulu eduze nomthombo wayo. Kwezinye izindawo eziseduze nezindawo ezingaphansi komhlaba, igagasi lokuqala lingafika zingakapheli imizuzu emi-5-20. Uchungechunge lokusabalalisa isixwayiso sokuthola-ukuhlaziya-ukuhlola kumele lube lushesha kakhulu, futhi umphakathi kumele uqonde ukuthi ungasabela kanjani ngokuzimela: uma kuzwakala ukuzamazama komhlaba okunamandla nokuthatha isikhathi eside, phuma ngokushesha ngaphandle kokulinda izinhlabamkhosi.
Okwesibili, ukungaqiniseki okuvela emthonjeni. Ukuzamazama komhlaba kungaba nokuqhuma okudlulela amakhulu amakhilomitha ngokushelela okungalingani. Amaphutha amancane ekulinganisweni kokujula noma kwendlela angaba nomthelela omkhulu ekubikezelweni kokuphakama kwe-tsunami. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukudilika komhlaba ngaphansi kwamanzi angaphansi komhlaba kungakhulisa ama-tsunami endaweni kodwa kunzima kakhulu ukuwabona ngokushesha. I-Geophysics ifuna ukuhlanganisa izinhlobo eziningi zedatha ukuze kuncishiswe lokhu kungaqiniseki.
Okwesithathu, ukulinganiselwa kwamanethiwekhi ezinzwa. Izinzwa ezingaphansi kolwandle ziyabiza ukufaka futhi zidinga ukulungiswa. Izindawo eziningi ezisengozini ye-tsunami azinawo amandla afanele okusebenza. Yilapho ukubambisana kwesifunda nokwamazwe ngamazwe, okuhlanganisa ukwabelana ngedatha kwamanye amazwe kanye nezindinganiso zokuxhumana zesixwayiso, kuba yinto ebalulekile.
Ukusungula izinto ezintsha kanye nekusasa: i-AI, izintambo ze-optical, kanye nezexwayiso ezisekelwe emphakathini
Intuthuko yesikhathi esizayo ihlanganisa ukuhlanganiswa kwedatha okusheshayo nokuhlakaniphile. Izindlela zokufunda komshini seziqala ukusetshenziswa ekuhlukaniseni ngokushesha ukuzamazama komhlaba okubangelwa yi-tsunami, ukunqunywa kwamapharamitha omthombo kusuka kumasignali ayinkimbinkimbi, kanye nokulungiswa kokukhetha kwamamodeli asekelwe kudatha yomlando. Kodwa-ke, i-AI kusamele ihlanganiswe nokuqonda i-physics kanye nokuqinisekiswa okuqinile, njengoba imiphumela yokubikezela okungalungile ibalulekile.
Okunye okusha okuthakazelisayo ukusetshenziswa kwezintambo ze-optical zasemanzini njengezinzwa zokuzamazama komhlaba kanye nokuguquguquka ngokusebenzisa amasu afana ne-Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). Ngokusebenzisa ingqalasizinda yezokuxhumana ebanzi kakade, ukuqapha kungaba okuphelele kakhulu futhi kwenzeke ngesikhathi sangempela, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni lapho amathuluzi avamile kunzima ukuwafaka khona.
Kodwa ubuchwepheshe abuyona impendulo kuphela. Izinhlelo ezisebenza kahle kakhulu yilezo ezixhumanisa isayensi, inqubomgomo, kanye nokulungiselela umphakathi. Amamephu okuphuma kwabantu, ukuvivinya umzimba njalo, izimpawu zendlela yokuphuma kwabantu, kanye nemfundo ngezibonakaliso zemvelo zokuxwayisa nge-tsunami (ukuzamazama komhlaba okunamandla, amagagasi ahlehlayo ngokuzumayo, imisindo yokuduma) kusalokhu kubalulekile.
I-Penutup
Ukuqapha nokubikezela i-tsunami kusetshenziswa i-geophysics kuwumzamo wemikhakha eminingi ohlanganisa i-seismology, i-geodesy, i-oceanography, kanye ne-numeral modeling. Ama-seismometer athola ukuzamazama komhlaba okubangela iziqhumane, i-GNSS ilinganisa ukuguquguquka kwe-crustal, ama-tide gauges kanye nezinzwa zokucindezela phansi kolwandle ziqinisekisa amagagasi, kanti amamodeli ezinombolo abikezela izikhathi zokufika kanye nemiphumela engaba khona yogu lolwandle. Izinselelo ezinkulu isivinini, ukungaqiniseki komthombo, kanye nokulinganiselwa kwamanethiwekhi ezinzwa—ikakhulukazi ama-tsunami aseduze nemithombo engeyona i-tectonic kanye neziqhumane. Ngokuthuthuka kwezinsimbi, ukubala, kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwedatha, amakhono okuxwayisa kusenesikhathi ayaqhubeka nokuthuthuka. Ekugcineni, umgomo oyinhloko wabo bonke lobu buchwepheshe be-geophysical ungomunye: ukuthenga isikhathi esibalulekile sokuphuma nokunciphisa ukulahlekelwa yimpilo ezindaweni ezisogwini ezisengozini.
