Umbono Wokuhlangana Kwezomnotho Phakathi Kwamazwe
Umehluko emazingeni okuchuma phakathi kwamazwe ungenye yezinkinga ezibaluleke kakhulu kwezomnotho wentuthuko. Amanye amazwe athola imali engenayo ephezulu ngomuntu ngamunye, imfundo esezingeni eliphezulu, ingqalasizinda ethuthukisiwe, kanye nokukhiqiza okuphezulu, kanti amanye asala ngemuva ebuphofwini besakhiwo, ukuncika ezintweni eziyisisekelo, kanye nekhono elibuthakathaka lezikhungo. Kulesi simo, inkolelo-mbono yokuhlangana komnotho izama ukuphendula umbuzo oyisisekelo: ingabe amazwe ampofu azothambekela "ekufinyeleleni" amazwe acebile ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, noma ingabe ukungalingani kwemali engenayo kuzoqhubeka futhi kukhule?
Ngokuvamile, ukuhlangana kubhekisela ekuthambekeleni kwezindinganiso zomnotho—ngokuvamile imali engenayo yomuntu ngamunye noma umkhiqizo—kuwo wonke amazwe ukuba zisondelane. Uma ukuhlangana kwenzeka, amazwe anemali engenayo ephansi azokhula ngokushesha kunamazwe acebile, okunciphisa igebe. Kodwa-ke, uma ukuhlangana kungenzeki, amazwe athuthukile angase alondoloze inzuzo ngenxa yezinzuzo zawo zobuchwepheshe, zezikhungo, kanye nezabasebenzi ezingenakuqhathaniswa.
Ukuhlangana Ohlakeni Lwethiyori Yokukhula Kwe-Neoclassical
Izingxoxo ngokuhlangana zivame ukubhekisela kumamodeli okukhula kwe-neoclassical, ikakhulukazi imodeli ye-Solow-Swan. Kulo modeli, umkhiqizo wezwe unqunywa yinhlanganisela yemali ebonakalayo, abasebenzi, kanye nobuchwepheshe. Umphumela obalulekile wemodeli ye-Solow ukuba khona kokuncipha kwembuyiselo enhlokodolobha: lapho isitokwe semali ngesisebenzi ngasinye siphansi, utshalomali olwengeziwe lukhiqiza ukwanda okukhulu komkhiqizo; ngokuphambene nalokho, lapho imali iphezulu kakhulu, izinzuzo zokutshalwa kwezimali okwengeziwe ziyancipha.
Lo mqondo usekela umqondo wokuhlangana: amazwe ampofu ngokuvamile anezitoko eziphansi zemali ngomsebenzi ngamunye, ngakho-ke ukutshalwa kwezimali okusha kunomthelela omkhulu ekukhuleni. Okwamanje, amazwe acebile anezitoko eziphezulu zemali ngomsebenzi ngamunye abhekana nokukhula okuhamba kancane ngoba imali eyengeziwe ayisakhulisi umkhiqizo njengakuqala. Uma wonke amazwe efinyelela ubuchwepheshe obufanayo kanye nezakhiwo zawo zomnotho zifana, khona-ke imali engenayo yomuntu ngamunye izovame ukuhlangana ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Kodwa-ke, imodeli yeSolow iphinde igcizelele ukuthi izwe ngalinye "linesimo esizinzile," noma izinga lemali engenayo yesikhathi eside, elithonywa yizinga lokonga, ukukhula kwabantu, ukwehla kwenani, kanye nentuthuko yezobuchwepheshe. Ngenxa yokuthi lezi zinhlaka zingahluka kuwo wonke amazwe, umphumela wokugcina awufani ngaso sonke isikhathi.
Ukuhlangana Okuphelele
Ukuhlangana okuphelele kuyindlela "enethemba" kakhulu yokuhlangana. Kusho ukuthi wonke amazwe azofinyelela izinga elifanayo lemali engenayo ngomuntu ngamunye ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi izimo zawo zokuqala zinjani. Ngamanye amazwi, amazwe ampofu azokhula ngokushesha kunamazwe acebile, ekugcineni kuholele ekulinganisweni.
Ukuze ukuhlangana okuphelele kube nokwenzeka, kudingeka ukucabanga okuqinile: izakhiwo zomnotho ezifanayo, amazinga okonga afanayo, amazinga okukhula kwabantu afanayo, ikhwalithi yezikhungo ezifanayo, kanye nokufinyelela okubanzi kwezobuchwepheshe. Empeleni, lokhu kuqonda akuvamile ukuhlangatshezwa ezweni langempela. Kodwa-ke, ukuhlangana okuphelele ngezinye izikhathi kubonakala emaqenjini ezifunda afanayo, njengamazwe noma izifunda ezinokuhlanganiswa okuqinile kwemakethe, izikhungo ezifanayo, kanye nokufinyelela okufanayo kwezobuchwepheshe.
Ukuhlangana Okunemibandela
Ngenxa yomehluko omkhulu phakathi kwamazwe, izazi zomnotho eziningi zikhetha umqondo wokuhlangana okunemibandela. Lo mbono uthi amazwe ngeke ahlangane abe sezingeni elifanayo lemali engenayo, kodwa abe semazweni awo azinzile. Lokhu kusho ukuthi amazwe ampofu angakhula ngokushesha kunamazwe acebile uma enezimpawu eziyisisekelo ezifana nezamazwe athuthukile: ukonga/ukutshalwa kwezimali okwanele, amazinga aphezulu emfundo, izikhungo ezisebenzayo, ukuzinza kwezepolitiki, kanye nezinqubomgomo zomnotho ezisekela ukukhiqiza.
Uma kuhlangana okunemibandela, izwe A lingafinyelela izwe B kuphela uma imingcele yalo yesakhiwo ivumela lokho. Uma izwe A linezikhungo ezibuthakathaka, izingxabano eziqhubekayo, noma ikhwalithi ephansi yezinsizakusebenza zabantu, lingase lihlale libambeke esimweni esiphansi esizinzile. Le ndlela inengqondo kakhulu ngoba ichaza ukuthi kungani amanye amazwe efinyelela ngokushesha (isibonelo, amanye amazwe aseMpumalanga Asia ngezikhathi ezithile), kanti amanye amaningi ahlangabezana nokusheshisa kokukhula okunganele.
Ukuhlangana kwe-Beta ne-Sigma
Ezincwadini ezisekelwe emibonweni, ukuhlangana kuvame ukuhlolwa ngemiqondo emibili: ukuhlangana kwe-beta kanye nokuhlangana kwe-sigma.
1. Ukuhlangana kwe-beta kwenzeka lapho amazwe anemali engenayo yokuqala ephansi ekhula ngokushesha kunamazwe anemali engenayo yokuqala ephezulu. Lokhu kuhlolwa ngokunciphisa ukukhula kwemali engenayo yokuqala: uma i-coefficient i-negative, khona-ke ukuhlangana kwe-beta kuyakhonjiswa.
2. Ukuhlangana kwe-Sigma kubhekisela ekuhlakazekeni kokusabalalisa (ukusabalala) kwemali engenayo ngomuntu ngamunye emazweni ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ngokuvamile kulinganiswa ngokuhlukahluka noma ukuphambuka okujwayelekile kwelogi yemali engenayo ngomuntu ngamunye. Ukuhlangana kwe-Sigma “kuqinile” kakhulu ngoba ukuhlangana kwe-beta akuhlali kubangela ukuncipha kwegebe; amazwe ampofu angakhula ngokushesha, kodwa uma igebe lihlala likhulu noma amazwe acebile eqhubeka nokuthuthuka kancane kancane, ukuhlakazeka kungase kungapheli.
Zombili zibalulekile: ukuhlangana kwe-beta kuhlola indlela yokukhula kwe-dynamics, kuyilapho ukuhlangana kwe-sigma kuhlola ukuthi ukungalingani phakathi kwamazwe kuyehla yini ngempela.
Ukuhlangana Kwekilabhu
Okuhlangenwe nakho komhlaba wonke kubonisa ukuthi ukuhlangana kuvame ukwenzeka ngesimo "samaqembu." Okusho ukuthi, amazwe awahambi wonke aye ezingeni elifanayo lemali engenayo; avame ukuhlangana ngezindlela ezithile zokukhula. Kukhona iqembu lamazwe athuthukile anobuchwepheshe obuphezulu nezikhungo eziqinile, iqembu lamazwe anengeniso ephakathi akhula kodwa angakakwazi "ukukhuphuka," kanye neqembu lamazwe ampofu asele emuva.
Ukuhlangana kwamakilabhu kungachazwa yizithiyo zesakhiwo: ukuba khona kwemingcele ethile emandleni ezikhungo, ikhwalithi yemfundo, ukuzinza komnotho omkhulu, kanye namandla okusungula izinto ezintsha. Uma izwe liwela ngaphansi komkhawulo othile, lilwela ukuqala ukuqongelela imali kanye nokuguqulwa kwesakhiwo okudingekayo ukuze kuqale ibhizinisi. Lo mqondo uhlobene futhi nesenzakalo sogibe lwabantu abahola imali ephakathi, lapho izwe liphumelela ekuphunyukeni ebuphofwini kodwa bese lincipha ngenxa yokungakwazi kwalo ukushintsha ekukhuleni okusekelwe kubasebenzi abashibhile liye ekukhuleni okusekelwe kubuchwepheshe.
Indima Yobuchwepheshe, Izikhungo, kanye Nomnotho Wabantu
Impikiswano yokuhlangana ayikwazi ukuhlukaniswa nezici ezingaphezu kwemali ebonakalayo. Izinto ezintathu ezivame ukubhekwa njengezici ezibalulekile zokuthola impumelelo yilezi:
1. Ubuchwepheshe kanye nokusatshalaliswa kwezinto ezintsha
Amazwe asathuthuka angasheshisa ukukhula ngokusebenzisa ubuchwepheshe obukhona emazweni athuthukile (ukukhula kokubambisana). Kodwa-ke, ukwamukelwa kobuchwepheshe akuzenzakalelayo: kudinga ingqalasizinda, amakhono, kanye nendawo yebhizinisi esekelayo.
2. Izikhungo zezomnotho nezepolitiki
Amalungelo empahla acacile, ukuphoqelelwa komthetho, izikhulu zikahulumeni ezisebenzayo, kanye nenkohlakalo encane kuhlobene nesimo sokutshalwa kwezimali esingcono. Izikhungo ezimpofu zandisa izindleko zokuthengiselana kanye nezingozi, zivimbela ukuqoqwa kwemali, kanye nokukhiqiza okuhamba kancane.
3. Ingcebo yabantu
Imfundo, amakhono, impilo, kanye nokudla okunempilo kunquma umkhiqizo wabasebenzi. Amazwe anemali engenayo ephansi akwazi ukwandisa imali yawo yokusebenza ngokuvamile ashesha ukusebenzisa utshalomali kanye nobuchwepheshe.
Ukuhwebelana Komhlaba Wonke, Ukuhweba, kanye Nokuhlangana
Ukuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okuqondile kwamanye amazwe (i-FDI) kuvame ukubhekwa njengezindlela ezibalulekile zokuhlangana. Ngokuvuleleka, amazwe asathuthuka angafinyelela ezimakethe ezibanzi, azuze ekuchithekeni kobuchwepheshe, futhi andise ukusebenza kahle ngokuncintisana. Kodwa-ke, izinzuzo zokuhwebelana komhlaba wonke zincike kakhulu ekulungiseleleni kwasekhaya. Uma izakhiwo zomnotho zibuthakathaka futhi ukuncika kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunqunyelwe ezimpahleni ezingavuthiwe, ukuvuleleka kungadala ukuguquguquka nokungalingani ngaphandle kokushayela uguquko lwezimboni.
Isiphetho
Umbono wokuhlangana komnotho phakathi kwamazwe unikeza uhlaka lokuqonda ukuthi amazwe ampofu angawafinyelela yini futhi kanjani amazwe acebile. Amamodeli e-Neoclassical asekela umbono wokuthi amazwe anemali ephansi anamandla okukhula aphezulu, kodwa iqiniso libonisa ukuthi ukuhlangana akwenziwa ngokuzenzakalelayo. Ngenxa yokwehluka kwezikhungo, ubuchwepheshe, izibalo zabantu, kanye nezimali zabantu, umhlaba uvame ukubonisa ukuhlangana okunemibandela noma ngisho nokuhlangana kwamaqembu kunokuhlangana okuphelele.
Imiphumela yenqubomgomo yentuthuko icacile: ukuhambisana akusho nje ukwandisa utshalomali, kodwa futhi nokwakha izikhungo ezithembekile, ukuqinisa ikhwalithi yemfundo nokunakekelwa kwezempilo, ukukhuthaza ukuhlukahluka komnotho, nokudala indawo ekwazi ukumelana nobuchwepheshe. Ukuhlangana kungenzeka, kodwa kudinga izinto ezidingekayo—futhi impumelelo yezwe ngalinye izoncika kakhulu ekutheni lezo zinto ezidingekayo zifinyelelwa ngokushesha kangakanani.
Uma uthanda, ngingangeza izibonelo zamacala (isib. i-East Asia, i-European Union, noma i-Sub-Saharan Africa), idatha yemikhuba yokuhlangana komhlaba wonke, kanye nohlu olufushane lwezincwadi ukuze lesi sihloko sibe sezemfundo kakhulu.
