Chii chinonzi Multiple Regression
Kudzokorora kwakawanda inzira yekuongorora nhamba inoshandiswa kunzwisisa hukama huripo pakati pechinhu chimwe chete chinotsamira pane chimwe chinhu uye zvinhu zviviri kana kupfuura zvakazvimiririra. Nzira iyi inowanzoshandiswa mukutsvagisa kwemagariro evanhu, hupfumi, bhizinesi, hutano, dzidzo, uye sainzi yedata nekuti inogona kutsanangura kuti zvinhu zvakawanda zvinopesvedzera sei mhedzisiro.
Semuenzaniso, ngatitii mumwe munhu anoda kufanotaura mamakisi ebvunzo yemudzidzi. Mamakisi ebvunzo (makisi anoenderana) anogona kukanganiswa nemaawa ekudzidza, kupinda, uye mukana wekudzidza (makisi akazvimirira). Kudzokorora kwakawanda kunobatsira kupindura mibvunzo yakaita sekuti: Ndezvipi zvinhu zvinonyanya kukosha? Kana maawa ekudzidza akawedzera, mamakisi ebvunzo avhareji achawedzera zvakadii, zvichiita kuti zvimwe zvinhu zvirambe zviripo?
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Tsanangudzo uye Chinangwa cheKudzoreredzwa Kwakawanda
Muchidimbu, multiple regression ine chinangwa cheku:
1. Fanotaura kukosha kwechinhu chinotsamira pachinhu chimwe chete zvichibva pane zvimwe zvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana.
2. Tsanangura kuti shanduko yega yega ine simba rakadii pane shanduko inoenderana.
3. Kunoderedza rusaruro rungamuka kana tikashandisa shanduko imwe chete yakazvimirira, kunyangwe muchokwadi chiitiko chinopesvedzerwa nezvinhu zvakawanda.
4. Kudzora zvimwe zvinhu (kutonga) pakuedza simba rechinhu chimwe chete.
Nekudzoreredza kuri nyore, tinongotarisa hukama huripo pakati pechinhu chimwe chete nemhedzisiro. Zvisinei, munyika chaiyo, mhedzisiro inowanzoenderana. Apa ndipo panowanzova nerevo yekudzoka shure kakawanda: kunoedza kuona "mufananidzo mukuru" nekubatanidza zvinhu zvakawanda panguva imwe chete.
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Fomu Rakajairika reMultiple Regression Equation
Kudzoreredza kwakawanda kunowanzo nyorwa se equation:
Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + b3X3 + … + bnXn + e
Information:
– Y = chinjo inotsamira (inofanira kutsanangurwa/kufanotaurwa)
– a = chisingaperi (kukosha kwaY kana maX ese ari 0)
– b1, b2, … bn = ma coefficients ekudzoka kwechinhu chimwe nechimwe chakazvimiririra
– X1, X2, … Xn = mavariable akazvimiririra
– e = kukanganisa/kusara (chikamu chemusiyano muY chisingagone kutsanangurwa nemuenzaniso)
Coefficient b ndiyo inonyanya kutsanangurwa. Semuenzaniso, kana b1 = 2,5, saka kuwedzera kwega kwega kweyuniti imwe muX1 kuchawedzera Y ne2,5, tichifunga kuti zvimwe zvinhu zvakazvimiririra zvinoramba zvakafanana. Mutsara wekuti "zvimwe zvese zviri kuramba zvakafanana" wakakosha nekuti unomiririra chinhu chakakosha che multiple regression: unoyera "chikamu" chemhedzisiro ye variable.
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Muenzaniso weMultiple Regression Application
Kuti zvive nyore, heino muenzaniso webhizinesi uri nyore. Ngatitii kambani inoda kuziva zvinhu zvinopesvedzera kutengeswa kwechigadzirwa (Y). Kambani inounganidza data:
– X1 = mari yekushambadzira (mumamiriyoni erupiah)
– X2 = mutengo wechigadzirwa (muzviuru zvemarupiya)
– X3 = nhamba yevatengesi vanoshanda
Mhedzisiro yekuongorora inogadzira equation:
Kutengesa = 100 + 8X1 – 5X2 + 12X3
Dudziro yacho:
– Constant 100: kana mari yekushambadzira, mitengo, uye vatengesi zvichionekwa se0, kutengesa kunofungidzirwa kuva mayuniti zana (iyi ingori dudziro yemasvomhu, dzimwe nguva hazvina musoro muchokwadi).
– 8X1: imwe neimwe miriyoni imwe yemari yekushambadzira inofungidzirwa kuwedzera kutengesa nemayuniti masere, kana mutengo nemutengesi zvikaramba zvakafanana.
– -5X2: kuwedzera kwega kwega kwerupiah chiuru chimwe chete mumutengo kunofungidzirwa kuderedza kutengeswa nemayuniti mashanu, kana zvimwe zvinhu zvikaramba zvakafanana.
– 12X3: mutengesi mumwe chete anoshanda anowedzera kutengesa nemayuniti gumi nemaviri, kana zvimwe zvinhu zvikaramba zvakafanana.
Nemuenzaniso uyu, makambani anogona kugadzira marongero: semuenzaniso, kusarudza musanganiswa wekushambadzira, mitengo, uye huwandu hwevatengesi kuti vasvike pazvinangwa zvekutengesa.
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Kudzokororwa KwemaMultiple Kwakakodzera Rini Kushandisa?
Kudzoreredza kwakawanda kwakakodzera kushandiswa kana:
1. Une mhedzisiro huru imwe chete yaunoda kufanotaura (Y).
2. Pane zvinhu zvinopfuura chimwe zvinofungidzirwa kuti zvine chekuita nemhedzisiro (X).
3. Data riri pachiyero chenhamba kana kuti rinogona kuchinjwa kuita fomu renhamba (semuenzaniso, mapoka anochinjwa kuita madhoma).
Nzira iyi inogona kushandiswawo "kuyedza dzidziso" mukutsvagisa, semuenzaniso, kana mhedzisiro yedzidzo pamari ichiri kukosha mushure mekudzora ruzivo rwebasa nenzvimbo yekugara.
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Pfungwa Dzakakosha muKudzoreredza Kwakawanda
Kuti mhedzisiro ive inoshanda, multiple regression ine fungidziro dzakawanda dzinofanira kutariswa:
1. Kurongeka
Hukama huripo pakati pezvinhu zvinozvimiririra nezvinoenderana nezvinodiwa hunofungidzirwa kuti hwakatsetseka. Kana hukama chaihwo hwakakombama (husina kutsetseka), muenzaniso wemutsetse ungasava wakarurama.
2. Hapana hunyanzvi hwakawanda hwe multicollinearity
Zvimiro zvakasiyana hazvifanirwe kunge zvakabatana zvakanyanya. Kana X1 na X2 zvakafanana, zvichave zvakaoma kupatsanura mhedzisiro yazvo.
3. Kusawirirana pakati pemurume nemukadzi
Kusiyana kwezvakasara kunotarisirwa kuti kuve kwakangofanana pane zvese zvakafanotaurwa. Kana zvakasara zvikakura pane imwe kukosha (heteroscedasticity), kufungidzira kunogona kusashanda zvakanaka.
4. Kurongeka kwezvisaririra (zvinowanzo dikanwa)
Zvasara zvinofanira kunge zvakapararira kakawanda, kunyanya pakuedza kukosha kwezvinhu.
5. Kuzvimiririra kwezvikanganiso
Zvikanganiso pakati pezvakaonekwa hazvifanirwe kuenderana. Dambudziko iri rinowanzo buda mudata renguva.
Kuongorora fungidziro kunowanzoitwa kuburikidza nemagrafu akasara, bvunzo dzezviverengero (semuenzaniso, VIF ye multicollinearity), uye kumwe kuongorora kwekuongorora.
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Kuyera Mhando Yemhando: R² uye Kuedza Kukosha
Mukudzokorora kwakawanda, zviratidzo zvakawanda zvakajairika zvinoshandiswa:
– R² (Chiyero Chekusarudza)
Inoratidza huwandu hwemusiyano muY hunogona kutsanangurwa nemuenzaniso. Makoshero eR² anotangira pa0–1. Kana R² yakakura, musiyano wakakura unotsanangurwa nega. Zvisinei, R² yakakura hazvirevi kuti modhi "yakarurama"; kukwidziridzwa zvakanyanya kunogona kuitika.
- R² Yakagadziridzwa
Shanduro yeR² inotarisa huwandu hwezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana. Izvi zvinobatsira kuenzanisa mamodheru nenhamba dzakasiyana dzezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana.
– Bvunzo yeF (panguva imwe chete)
Kuedza kana mavariable akazvimiririra pamwe chete ane mhedzisiro yakakosha paY.
– bvunzo ye-t (isina chikamu)
Edzai kana coefficient yega yega (b1, b2, nezvimwewo) yakakosha muhuwandu hwezviverengero.
Nekuyedza uku, vaongorori vanogona kuongorora kana modhi iyi ichibatsira uye kuti ndeapi mavariables anobatsira chaizvo.
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Zvakanakira uye Zvisingakwanisike zveMultiple Regression
Kelebihan
- Zviri pachena nekuti zvinotarisa zvinhu zvakawanda panguva imwe chete.
- Inogona kushandiswa kufanotaura uye kutsanangura.
- Inobvumira ongororo yemhedzisiro isina kukwana (kudzora zvimwe zvinhu).
- Ndiyo hwaro hwenzira dzakawanda dzepamusoro muhuwandu hwezviverengero nekudzidza kwemuchina.
Miganhu
- Inokanganisa kukanganiswa kwemarudzi akawanda.
- Mhedzisiro inogona kutsausa kana fungidziro dzikasazadzikiswa.
- Hazviratidzi hukama hwechikonzero otomatiki; kudzokera shure kunoratidza hukama, uye chikonzero chinoda dhizaini yakasimba yekutsvagisa.
- Kuisa data rakawandisa kunogona kuitika kana paine zvinhu zvakawanda zvichienzaniswa nehuwandu hwedata.
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Penutup
Kudzokorora kwakawanda chishandiso chakakosha chekuongorora hukama huripo pakati pechinhu chimwe chete chinotsamira pane chimwe nechimwe uye zvinhu zvakawanda zvakazvimiririra. Uchishandisa equation iri nyore, nzira iyi inobatsira vaongorori nevanoita basa kunzwisisa zvinhu zvine simba, kuyera simba resimba rechinhu chimwe nechimwe, uye kuita fungidziro dzakarurama pane kushandisa chinhu chimwe chete.
Zvisinei, multiple regression haisi "chishandiso chemashiripiti." Inoda data rakanaka, sarudzo inonzwisisika yekuchinja-chinja, uye kutarisa fungidziro kuti ive nechokwadi chekududzirwa kwakarurama. Kana ikashandiswa nemazvo, multiple regression inogona kupa hwaro hwakasimba hwekuita sarudzo dzinotungamirirwa nedata munzvimbo dzakasiyana-siyana.
Kana muchida, ndinogona kukubatsirai kugadzira chinyorwa chino chechinyorwa chino chemamiriro ezvinhu chaiwo (semuenzaniso, chepfungwa, chebhizinesi, kana chevaverengi vechikoro chesekondari) chine mienzaniso iri nyore yekuverenga uye maitiro ekuverenga SPSS/Excel/R output.
