Basa reNhamba muNhoroondo
Nhamba, dzinowanzonzi sainzi yedata, dzakaita basa guru munhoroondo yese. Kubva pamidzi yadzo mutsika dzekare kusvika pakushandiswa kwadzo kwemazuva ano muminda yakasiyana-siyana, nhamba dzave dzichibatsira mukuumba kunzwisisa kwevanhu nyika. Chinyorwa chino chinoongorora rwendo rwenhoroondo nebasa guru renhamba, chichiratidza zvinhu zvakakosha uye simba rayo guru pakufambira mberi kwenharaunda.
Kuberekwa kweNhamba: Midzi Yekare
Kwakatangira nhamba kunogona kuteverwa kudzokera kumashure kutsika dzekare, uko nzira dzekare dzekuunganidza nekuongorora data dzaishandiswa pakutarisira. VaBhabhironi, vaIjipita, nevaChina vaichengeta zvinyorwa zvemitero, kutengeserana, uye kuverengwa kwevanhu. Imwe yenzira dzekutanga dzekuverenga vanhu dzakanyorwa dzakaitwa pasi peHumambo hwaHan muChina kunenge muna 2 AD, dzichinyora ruzivo nezvehuwandu hwevanhu nezviwanikwa.
MuGirisi Yekare, hwaro hwepfungwa dzezviverengero hwakaiswa nevazivi nenyanzvi dzemasvomhu vakaita saThales, Pythagoras, naAristotle. Vafungi vekare ava vaishandisa kufunga zvine musoro uye kucherechedza kwakaitwa nenyanzvi kuti vanzwisise maitiro nehukama huri munyika yechisikigo. Zvisinei, zvakatozotanga kuonekwa kusvika pakatanga dzidziso yekufungidzira muzana remakore rechi16 nerechi17 apo nhamba dzakatanga kuoneka senzvimbo yakasiyana yekudzidza.
Kuvandudzwa kweDzidziso yeZvingangoitika uye yeStatistical
Zana remakore rechi16 nerechi17 rakaratidza kuchinja kukuru munhoroondo yehuwandu hwevanhu, nekuvandudzwa kwedzidziso yekufungidzira kwezvingangoitika nenyanzvi dzemasvomhu dzakadai saGerolamo Cardano, Pierre de Fermat, naBlaise Pascal. Nguva iyi yakaona kurongeka kwepfungwa dzakadai sekukosha kunotarisirwa, kugoverwa kwezvingangoitika, uye mutemo wehuwandu hwakawanda.
Muzana remakore rechi18, basa raThomas Bayes rakaunza mukana weBayesian, richipa hurongwa hwekuvandudza mukana wechiitiko zvichibva pauchapupu hutsva. Maitiro aya eBayesian achiri akakosha mukufungidzira kwenhamba dzemazuva ano uye kuita sarudzo.
Kugadzwa kwenhamba sechikamu chedzidzo kunogona kunzi kwakakonzerwa nebasa raSir Francis Galton naKarl Pearson rakapesvedzera mukupera kwezana remakore rechi19 nekutanga kwezana remakore rechi20. Tsvagiridzo yaGalton mu eugenics nenhaka ndiyo yakaisa hwaro hwepfungwa yekubatana, nepo kuvandudzwa kwaPearson kwekuongorora regression uye bvunzo ye chi-square zvakapa maturusi akakosha ekuongorora hukama pakati pezvinhu zvinoshanduka.
Nhamba muDemografi neSainzi Yemagariro Evanhu
Nhamba dzakapesvedzera zvikuru nyaya yehuwandu hwevanhu, kudzidza nezvehuwandu hwevanhu. Kuunzwa kwematafura ehupenyu nesainzi ye actuarial muzana remakore rechi17 kwakabvumira kudzidza kwakarongeka kwehuwandu hwevanhu vanofa uye hunotarisirwa kurarama. John Graunt, anowanzoonekwa sababa vehuwandu hwevanhu, akaongorora zvinyorwa zvekufa muLondon mubasa rake guru, "Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality." Kushandisa kwaGraunt kuongorora nhamba kwakapa ruzivo pamusoro pehuwandu hwevanhu uye hutano hwevanhu.
Muzana remakore rechi19, Adolphe Quetelet, nyanzvi yezvehuwandu hwevanhu vekuBelgium, akashandisa nzira dzehuwandu hwevanhu pazviitiko zvemagariro evanhu, achitanga izwi rekuti "social physics." Basa raQuetelet pa "munhu akajairika" uye kushandiswa kwekugoverwa kwakajairika kune hunhu hwevanhu zvakaisa hwaro hwehuwandu hwevanhu hwemazuva ano. Mipiro yake yakaratidza mukana wehuwandu hwevanhu kuti vaone maitiro nemafambiro emagariro evanhu, zvichipesvedzera minda yakaita sesociology, criminology, uye economics.
Nhamba uye Kuchinja Kwemaindasitiri
Kuchinja kweMaindasitiri kwakaunza shanduko huru dzezvehupfumi netekinoroji, zvikaita kuti pave nenzira dzakaoma dzekuverenga kuti dzikwanise kubata nekuongorora huwandu hwedata huri kukura. Kuuya kwekugadzirwa kwedata rakawanda, kukura kwemaguta, uye kufambira mberi mukufambisa kwaida nzira itsva dzekuunganidza nekuongorora data.
Nyanzvi dzezvehuwandu dzakadai saWilhelm Lexis, uyo akatanga pfungwa yekuongorora nguva, naFrancis Edgeworth, uyo akabatsira mukuvandudzwa kwenhamba dze index, akaita basa rakakosha mukugadzirisa matambudziko ehuwandu akakonzerwa neIndustrial Revolution. Kufambira mberi uku kwakagonesa kudzidza kwakarongeka kwemafambiro ehupfumi, maitiro ebhizinesi, uye maitiro emusika.
Nhamba muHutano hweVeruzhinji neMishonga
Basa guru rehutano hweveruzhinji nemishonga rinobva pakufambira mberi kwaro mukuita kwehuwandu hwevanhu. Mumwe wemienzaniso inonyanya kuzivikanwa ibasa raFlorence Nightingale, nyanzvi yehuwandu hwevanhu uye mukoti. Kushandisa kwaNightingale mifananidzo yehuwandu hwevanhu, senge polar area diagram, kuratidza huwandu hwevanhu vakafa panguva yeHondo yeCrimea kwakaita kuti pave nekuchinja kukuru muhutano hwemauto nehwevanhuwo zvavo. Kuedza kwake kwakaratidza kukosha kwekuita sarudzo dzinotungamirirwa nedata mukuvandudza mhedzisiro yehutano hweveruzhinji.
Muzana remakore rechi20, kuuya kwemiedzo yakadzorwa isina kurongeka (RCTs) kwakachinja tsvakiridzo yezvekurapa. RA Fisher, munhu akakosha mukuvandudzwa kwenzira dzemazuva ano dzekuverenga, akatanga misimboti yekugadzira bvunzo uye bvunzo dzefungidziro. Mipiro yaFisher yakapa hurongwa hwakasimba hwekuongorora kushanda kwemishonga, zvichitungamira mukurapa kwakavakirwa pauchapupu uye kuvandudzwa kwekutarisira varwere.
Basa reStatistics muHurumende nePolicy
Hurumende dzagara dzichiziva kukosha kwenhamba mukugadzira mitemo yeruzhinji nekutonga. Kuumbwa kwemasangano enhamba enyika, akadai seUnited States Census Bureau neUnited Kingdom's Office for National Statistics, kwakaita kuti pave nekuunganidzwa nekuongororwa kwedata pamusoro pevanhu, hupfumi, uye mamiriro emagariro evanhu.
Nhamba dzinoita basa rakakosha pakuzivisa sarudzo dzemitemo panyaya dzakasiyana-siyana, kubva pakuronga hupfumi nedzidzo kusvika kuhutano nekugara zvakanaka kwevanhu. Semuenzaniso, huwandu hwekushaikwa kwemabasa, huwandu hwekukwira kwemitengo, uye kukura kweGDP zviratidzo zvikuru zvehupfumi zvinotungamira mitemo yemari nemari. Munyaya yehutano hweveruzhinji, ongororo yehuwandu hwezvirwere uye kushanda kwemishonga yekudzivirira zvirwere inobatsira pakudzivirira nekudzivirira zvirwere.
Nhamba dzeNhasi Dzazvino
Munguva yazvino, kukura kukuru kwedata nekufambira mberi mune tekinoroji kwakaita kuti nhamba dzisvike pakakwirira. Nzvimbo yesainzi yedata, musanganiswa wezviverengero, sainzi yemakombiyuta, uye hunyanzvi hwenzvimbo, yave chinhu chakakosha munguva yeruzivo. Nyanzvi dzezviverengero nesainzi yedata ikozvino vanoshandisa simba redata guru, kudzidza kwemuchina, uye njere dzekugadzira kuti vawane ruzivo kubva mudata rakakura.
Mashandisirwo enzira dzemazuva ano dzekuverenga nhamba aripo kwose kwose, kubva pakuongorora kwekufanotaura mubhizinesi nemari kusvika pakurapa kwakanyatsojeka uye kugadzirisa mamiriro ekunze. Denda reCOVID-19 rakasimbisa basa rakakosha renhamba mukutungamira mhinduro dzehutano hweveruzhinji, nemamodheru ezvirwere, zvidzidzo zvekushandisa majekiseni, uye ongororo yedata panguva chaiyo ichizivisa kuedza kwepasi rose kurwisa hutachiona.
mhedziso
Basa renhamba munhoroondo rine mativi akawanda uye harina kukosha. Kubva pakutanga kwayo kwakaderera mukuchengetedza zvinyorwa zvekare kusvika pabasa rayo guru musainzi yemazuva ano nekugadzira mitemo, nhamba dzashanduka kuita chishandiso chine simba chekunzwisisa nekugadzirisa matambudziko enyika. Nekupa ongororo ine njere, kutungamira kuita sarudzo, uye kukurudzira hunyanzvi, nhamba dzinoramba dzichiumba zvakapfuura, zvazvino, uye remangwana, zvichisimbisa kukosha kwadzo kusingaperi mukutsvaga kwevanhu ruzivo nekufambira mberi.
