Maitiro Ekuverenga Mikana Yekunaya Kwemvura
Mvura inonaya ndeimwe yezvinhu zvinonyanya kuonekwa mumamiriro ekunze nekuti inokanganisa zvakananga mabasa ezuva nezuva, kubva pakurima, kutakura vanhu, kushanya, kusvika pakugadzirisa mafashamo. Zvisinei, vanhu vazhinji vachiri kuenzanisa "kufanotaura kwemvura" ne "chokwadi chemvura." Zvisinei, mune zvemamiriro ekunze zvemazuva ano, mukana wemvura unowanzo tsanangurwa semukana. Chinyorwa chino chinokurukura maitiro ekuverenga mukana wemvura zviri nyore, kubva papfungwa huru kusvika kumuenzaniso wekuverenga uri nyore kutevera.
Kunzwisisa kuti mukana wemvura ungangonaya sei
Mikana yekunaya kwemvura inowanzonzi mukana wekunaya kwemvura (PoP). Hazvisi chiyero chekuti mvura ichanaya zvakadii, asi mukana wekuti mvura ichanaya munzvimbo yakati wandei mukati menguva yakatarwa (semuenzaniso, maawa matanhatu kana maawa makumi maviri nemana).
Semuenzaniso, kana ichiti "70% mukana wekuti mvura ipinde," zvinoreva kuti pane mukana we70% wekuti mvura ipinde munzvimbo yakatarwa nenguva yakatarwa (kazhinji inoyerwa nechiyero chakati, semuenzaniso 0,1 mm).
Zvakakosha kucherechedza: mukana wekuti mvura ichauya hausi nyore kunzwisisa nguva dzose nekuda kwekusaziva kwedata remamiriro ekunze, mafambiro emhepo, uye miganhu yemamodheru ekufanotaura. Zvisinei, zvichienderana nehuwandu, mukana wekuti mvura ichauya unogona kuverengerwa uchishandisa data rekare uye mhedzisiro yemamodheru ekufanotaura.
Nzira mbiri dzakajairika dzekuverenga mukana wemvura
Mukuita, kune nzira mbiri dzinowanzoshandiswa:
1. Maitiro ekuverenga nhamba akavakirwa padata renhoroondo
Kushandisa zvinyorwa zvemvura zvakapfuura kufungidzira mukana wekunaya kwemvura panguva yakatarwa.
2. Kufanotaura (muenzaniso) uye nzira dzeboka
Kushandisa nzira yekuenzanisa mamiriro ekunze (kusanganisira mamiriro ekunze akawanda/nhengo dzemhando) kuverenga mukana wekuti mvura inganaye.
Muchinyorwa chino, chinangwa chikuru ndechekuverenga mukana wekunaya kwemvura uchishandisa nzira yekuverenga inogona kuitwa nemunhu wese, uye wozopedzisa nekutarisa mashandiro anoita nzira yekuenzanisa.
Ruzivo runodiwa
Kuti uverenge mukana wekuti mvura inganaye, unoda:
– Ruzivo rwemvura inonaya zuva nezuva/awa imwe neimwe kubva kunzvimbo dzekunaya kwemvura kana nzvimbo dzekunaya kwemvura.
- Nguva yedata yakareba zvakakwana (semuenzaniso makore gumi kusvika makumi matatu kuti ive yakagadzikana).
– Tsanangudzo ye "mvura" inoshandiswa: chiyero chidiki chemvura chinoonekwa semvura (semuenzaniso ≥ 0,1 mm/zuva kana ≥ 1 mm/zuva).
Muganho uyu wakakosha nekuti "mvura shoma" inogona kunyorwa semvura, asi kune zvimwe zvinangwa (semuenzaniso kurima), unogona kungofunga kuti mvura iri kunaya chete kana iri ≥ 5 mm.
Nzira 1: Mikana yekunaya kwemvura kubva pakuwanda kwemvura (nzira iri nyore)
Nzira iri nyore ndeyekuverenga kuwanda kwemvura inonaya munguva imwe chete.
Fomura
\[
P(\text{rain}) = \frac{\text{number of rain days}}{\text{total number of days}} \times 100\%
\]
Muenzaniso
Ngatitii unoda kuverenga mukana wekuti mvura inganaye muna Ndira zvichibva padata remakore gumi. Unounganidza huwandu hwemazuva muna Ndira kwemakore gumi:
- Ndira ane mazuva makumi matatu nerimwe.
– Ruzivo rwose = 31 × 10 = mazuva 310.
– Pamazuva mazana matatu negumi, mazuva mazana maviri negumi nenomwe akanyorwa mvura yainaya ≥ 0,1 mm.
Saka:
\[
P(\text{rain}) = \frac{217}{310} \kawa 100\% \inenge 70\%
\]
Izvi zvinoreva kuti, munhoroondo, mukana wekunaya kwemvura pazuva rakangoerekana raitika muna Ndira ungangoita 70% (tichishandisa chiyero che 0,1 mm).
Zvakanakira uye zvisingakwanisike
– Zvakanakira: zviri nyore kwazvo kuverenga.
– Zvipingamupinyi: hazvifungi nezvemamiriro ekunze aripo nhasi, asi nezveavhareji yezvakaitika kare chete.
Nzira yechipiri: Mikana yekunaya kwemvura pazuva rakatarwa (mamiriro ekunze ezuva nezuva)
Kana uchida kunyatsotsanangura, unogona kuverenga mukana wekunaya kwemvura pazuva rakati, ngatitii Chivabvu 10, uchishandisa ruzivo rwekare rwezuva iroro rwemakore akawanda.
Danho
1. Tora data remvura yezuva rimwe chete, semuenzaniso zuva rega rega ra10 Chivabvu kwemakore makumi maviri.
2. Verenga kuti mvura yakanaya kangani (≥ threshold) pazuva iroro.
3. Govanisa nenhamba yemakore.
Fomura
\[
P(\text{rain on date} d) = \frac{\text{number of years of rain on} d}{\text{number of years of data}} \times 100\%
\]
Muenzaniso
Data raChivabvu 10 kwemakore makumi maviri:
– mvura inonaya kagumi nemana (≥ 1 mm).
– Makore ese = 20.
\[
P = \frac{14}{20} \kawa 100\% = 70\%
\]
Nzira iyi inowanzonzi nzira yekuongorora mamiriro ekunze ezuva nezuva. Kuti uwedzere kugadzikana, unogona kuwedzera nguva, semuenzaniso, uchishandisa mazuva mapfumbamwe (Chivabvu 6–14) wozobva waita avhareji.
Nzira 3: Mikana yekuti "mvura zhinji" ibude zvichienderana nechiyero chakati
Mikana inogonawo kuverengerwa muzvikamu zvesimba, zvakaita semvura zhinji. Nzira yacho yakafanana, chete chiyero chinoshanduka.
Semuenzaniso, tsananguro yemvura zhinji: ≥ 50 mm/zuva.
\[
P(\text{heavy rain}) = \frac{\text{nhamba yemazuva nemvura ≥ 50 mm}}{\text{nhamba yose yemazuva}} \times 100\%
\]
Muenzaniso:
– Mazuva ese mumakore mashanu: 5 × 365 = mazuva 1825 (regai makore ekusvetuka kuti zvive nyore).
– Mazuva ekunaya kwemvura ≥ 50 mm: mazuva makumi matatu nematanhatu.
\[
P = \frac{36}{1825} \kawa 100\% \inenge 2\%
\]
Kunyangwe iri diki, kukosha uku kunobatsira pakuongorora njodzi yemafashamo, kuronga mvura inoyerera, uye kunyevera nguva isati yasvika.
Nzira yechina: Mikana yakavakirwa pamamiriro ezvinhu ekare (Markov ari nyore)
Mvura inowanzo tevera "maitiro ekuenderera mberi": kana mvura ikanaya nhasi, ine mukana wekuti mvura inaye mangwana pane kana ikasanaya nhasi. Unogona kuverenga mikana iri nyore yekuchinja uchishandisa pfungwa dzaMarkov.
Tsanangura mamiriro maviri:
– H = mvura (≥ chiyero)
– T = hapana mvura
Verenga kubva padata renhoroondo:
– \(P(H|H)\): mukana wekuti mvura ichanaya mangwana kana mvura ikanaya nhasi.
– \(P(H|T)\): mukana wekuti mvura ichanaya mangwana kana mvura ikasanaya nhasi.
Muenzaniso
Kubva pa1.000 mapeya ezuva akatevedzana:
– Ka400 kanoti “kunaya nhasi.” Paka400 iwayo, ka260 kanonaya mangwana.
\(P(H|H) = 260/400 = 65\%\)
– Ka600 "haina mvura nhasi." Paka600 iwayo, ka180 ichanaya mangwana.
\(P(H|T) = 180/600 = 30\%\)
Izvi zvinoita kuti mukana wekuti mvura ipinde mangwana ugadziriswe zvichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu aripo nhasi. Zvichiri nyore, asi zvine musoro kupfuura avhareji yemwedzi wega wega.
Nzira 5: Mikana inobva muboka remamodheru emamiriro ekunze (pfupiso yemaitiro emazuva ano)
Mukufanotaura kwemamiriro ekunze kwemazuva ano, mukana wekuti mvura ipinde unowanzo verengerwa kubva pakufanotaura kwese, uko kuri muunganidzwa wemuenzaniso wemhando dzakasiyana dzemuenzaniso dzine mamiriro ekutanga akasiyana. Nheyo yacho ndeiyi:
\[
P(\text{rain}) = \frac{\text{nhamba yenhengo dzeboka iri kufanotaura mvura}}{\text{nhamba yenhengo dzeboka iri}} \kawa 100\%
\]
Muenzaniso
Kune nhengo makumi maviri dzeboka remunharaunda yenyu mangwana:
– Vanhu gumi nevaviri vakafanotaura kuti mvura yaizonaya ≥ 1 mm.
– Nhengo 8 dzakafanotaurwa <1 mm. \[ P = \frac{12}{20} \times 100\% = 60\% \] Nzira iyi inoratidza kusava nechokwadi kwemuenzaniso. Kazhinji, kana zuva rekufanotaura rikaramba riripo, mikana yakawanda inowanzo "tambanudzwa" sezvo kusava nechokwadi kuchiwedzera. Mazano ekuverenga akanyatsojeka 1. Isa chiyero chakakodzera chemvura. Chikamu che 0,1 mm chakakodzera tsananguro dzemvura yemamiriro ekunze; kune migumisiro, 5–10 mm ingangodiwa. 2. Shandisa data refu uye rakachena. Data risipo kana zvishandiso zvekuyera zvisina kunaka zvinogona kuchinja mhedzisiro. Ita ongororo dzemhando yedata. 3. Funga nezvemwaka. Mikana yekunaya kwemvura mumwaka wekusanaya kwemvura nemwaka wekunaya yakasiyana zvikuru. Verenga zvakasiyana pamwaka kana pamwedzi. 4. Shandisa hwindo renguva yekufamba. Kune mazuva chaiwo, hwindo remazuva ±3 kusvika ±7 rinogona kuita kuti fungidziro dzive dzakagadzikana. 5. Siyanisa pakati pe "mukana wemvura" uye "mangani mm." Mhinduro dzemukana "ichanaya here," kwete "ichanaya mvura yakawanda sei." Mhedziso Kuverenga mukana wemvura kunobva pane pfungwa iri nyore: kuenzanisa huwandu hwezviitiko zvemvura nenhamba yese yezvakaonekwa. Unogona kuverenga avhareji yemukana wemvura pamwedzi, mukana wezuva rakatarwa, mukana wemvura yakawanda, kana kunyange mukana wemvura mangwana zvichibva pane mamiriro emazuva ano. Mutsika yemazuva ano, mukana wemvura unowanzo kuverengerwa kubva muboka remamodheru emamiriro ekunze, izvo zvinopa nzira yekufungidzira inonyatsokodzera hunhu hwemamiriro ekunze anochinja-chinja. Kana uchida, ndinogona kukubatsira kugadzira kuverenga kwemuenzaniso ndichishandisa data reExcel/CSV (semuenzaniso, data remvura yezuva nezuva kubva kuBMKG kana nzvimbo yako yekunaya kwemvura), yakazara nemafomura eExcel kana Python scripts kuti uverenge mukana wemvura pamwedzi, pamwaka, uye pachiyero chesimba.
