Hukama Hwenyika Dzepasi Pose muSoutheast Asia: Kuongorora Nyaya Yenyaya
Southeast Asia ndeimwe yenzvimbo dzine simba guru pamepu yezvematongerwo enyika pasi rose. Nzvimbo yayo yakakosha—inobatanidza makungwa eIndia nePacific uye nenzira dzekutengeserana kwenyika dzese—inoiita nzvimbo iyo zvido zvemasimba makuru zvinosangana, pamwe nenzvimbo yekukura kwekushandira pamwe kwakasimba munharaunda. Kubva pamaonero ehukama hwenyika dzese, Southeast Asia inonakidza kudzidza nekuti inoratidza kudyidzana pakati pekudyidzana kwenyika dzakawanda, makwikwi ezvematongerwo enyika, kubatanidzwa kwehupfumi, uye nyaya dzekuchengetedza dzisiri dzechinyakare dzakadai sekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, kutama kwevanhu, uye mhosva dzepasi rose. Chinyorwa chino chinoongorora hukama hwenyika dzese muSoutheast Asia kuburikidza nekuongorora zvidzidzo zvakati wandei zvakakosha, zvichiratidza vatambi, zvido, uye kukanganisa kugadzikana kwenharaunda.
Hurongwa Hwakafanana: ASEAN ne "Nzira yeASEAN"
Kubva pakavambwa ASEAN muna 1967, dunhu reSoutheast Asia rave nenzvimbo huru yekugadzirisa hukama hwenyika dzakasiyana. ASEAN haisi sangano chete, asi seti yemitemo yediplomatic nemaitiro anowanzozivikanwa se "ASEAN Way": kutaurirana, kubvumirana, kusapindira, uye nzira inofamba zvishoma nezvishoma. Nzira iyi inoonekwa seinoshanda mukudzivirira kusawirirana pachena pakati penhengo munguva yeCold War, kunyangwe yagara ichitsoropodzwa nekuda kwekunonoka uye kusasarudza kana paine matambudziko anoda mhinduro nekukurumidza.
Mukuita hukama hwenyika dzese, ASEAN inoitawo basa se "puratifomu" inokoka masimba makuru (United States, China, Japan, India, Australia, neEuropean Union) kuburikidza nemaforamu akadai seASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), East Asia Summit (EAS), uye ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus). Maitiro aya akakosha pakuchengetedza ASEAN iri pakati, ichiva nechokwadi chekuti mitemo yedunhu haina kusarudzwa zvizere nemasimba makuru.
Chidzidzo Chekutanga: Gakava reSouth China Sea uye Zvematongerwo Enyika Zvekuenzanisa
Gakava reSouth China Sea muenzaniso mukuru wekuti zvematongerwo enyika pasi rose zvinosangana sei nezvido zvenyika dzeSoutheast Asia. Nhengo dzinoverengeka dzeASEAN—Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, neBrunei—dzine zvichemo zvinoenderana ne "nine-dash line" yeChina. Gakava iri harina chekuita nekuzvitonga chete asiwo kuwana zviwanikwa (hove, gasi, mafuta), kutonga nzira dzekutakura ngarava, uye nzvimbo dzemauto.
Philippines inopa chidzidzo chakakosha apo, muna 2016, Dare Repamusorosoro reKutonga (PCA) rakatonga kuti zvakataurwa neChina kare hazvina hwaro hwepamutemo pasi peUNCLOS. Mutongo uyu wakasimbisa chinzvimbo chepamutemo chePhilippines, asi kuitwa kwawo kwakatarisana nechokwadi chesimba: China yakaramba mutongo wacho. Nekuda kweizvozvo, Philippines nedzimwe nyika dzakabatanidza mutemo wepasi rose, diplomacy, uye kusimbisa mubatanidzwa wekuchengetedza—kunyanya neUnited States—kuti pave nemhedzisiro yekuenzanisa.
Zvichakadaro, Vietnam yakaratidza nzira yakafanana asi yakangwarira: kusimudzira kugona kwayo kudzivirira, kuwedzera kushandira pamwe chete mukuchengetedza nemapoka akasiyana-siyana (multi-alignment), uye kuchengetedza kushandira pamwe chete muhupfumi neChina. Nyaya iyi inoratidza kuti nyika dzeSoutheast Asia dzinowanzozviwana sei dziri munzvimbo "yekudzivirira": kwete kutsigira zvizere simba rimwe chete, asi panzvimbo pezvo kudzora njodzi nekubatanidza vadyidzani vakawanda panguva imwe chete.
Chidzidzo Chechipiri: Dambudziko reMyanmar uye Dambudziko Rekusapindira
Kupidigurwa kwemauto eMyanmar muna 2021 kwakave muedzo mukuru kwazvo wekuvimbika kweASEAN senzvimbo yezvematongerwo enyika nekuchengetedzwa. Mhirizhonga kune vanhuwo zvavo, kusungwa kwevanopikisa, uye kurwisana kwenguva refu zvakashandura Myanmar kuita dambudziko redunhu, zvichikanganisa vapoteri, kutengeserana kwepasi rose, uye mufananidzo weASEAN pasi rose.
ASEAN yakapindura ne "Five-Point Consensus," iyo yaisanganisira kumira kwemhirizhonga, hurukuro inosanganisira vose, kugadzwa kwenhume yakakosha, kugoverwa kwerubatsiro rwevanhu, uye kushanya kwenhume kuMyanmar. Zvisinei, kuitiswa kwayo kwave kunonoka, chimwe chikamu nekuda kwenheyo yekusapindira uye maonero akasiyana pakati penhengo. Dzimwe nyika dzakakurudzira kumira kwakasimba, nepo dzimwe dzakasarudza kusanyadzisa kana kumanikidza junta pachena.
Nyaya yeMyanmar inoratidza dambudziko guru muhukama hwepasi rose: kusawirirana pakati pehutongi hwenyika nemutoro wevanhu vose mukuchengetedza kodzero dzevanhu. Inoratidzawo miganhu yemasangano emunharaunda anovimba nekubvumirana. Munyaya iyi, mubvunzo wakakosha unomuka: ASEAN inofanira here kutsanangura patsva kusapindira kuti igadzirise zviri nani matambudziko ezvematongerwo enyika ane migumisiro inodarika miganhu? Kana kuti kutevedzera musimboti uyu chinhu chinodiwa kuti pave nekubatana kweASEAN here?
Chidzidzo Chechitatu: Kubatanidzwa Kwehupfumi kuburikidza neRCEP uye Kukwikwidzana Kwemasimba Makuru
Muhupfumi, Southeast Asia yave nzvimbo inokura pasi rose uye "nzvimbo yekurwira simba" kuburikidza nekudyara mari, kutengeserana, uye nzira dzekutengesa. Chibvumirano cheRegional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), chinosanganisira ASEAN, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, neNew Zealand, chinoratidza kuti ASEAN iri kuzvipa sei nzvimbo yekuvaka hupfumi hweIndo-Pacific.
RCEP inokosha nekuti inogadza mitemo yekutengeserana yakajairika, inoderedza mimwe miganho yemitero, uye inobatsira kubatanidzwa kwemaketani ekutengesa emunharaunda. Kune nyika dzeASEAN, mabhenefiti ari mumukana wekuwedzera zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, kukwezva mari, uye kukurumidzisa maindasitiri. Zvisinei, RCEP inogadzirawo makwikwi asina kunanga. China inobatsirwa nekubatanidzwa kwehupfumi, ichisimbisa chinzvimbo chayo senzvimbo yekugadzira uye musika mukuru. Panguva iyi, nyika dzakadai seJapan neAustralia dzinoona RCEP senzira yekuchengetedza kubatana kwehupfumi hwenharaunda mukati mehurongwa hwakagadzikana.
Pakati pe "kupatsanurwa" kana "kubviswa kwenjodzi" kwecheni dzezvekupa zvinhu pasi rose, Southeast Asia iri kubatsirwawo nekutama kwemaindasitiri. Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, neIndonesia zviri kukwikwidzana kukwezva mari yekudyara inobva mutekinoroji, mota, uye semiconductor. Hukama hwenyika dzepasi rose munharaunda iyi huri kuramba huchitsamirwa nehurongwa hwezvehupfumi: zvinokurudzira kudyara, kugadzikana kwemitemo, uye kuchengetedzwa kwesimba.
Chidzidzo Chechina: Kuchengetedzwa Kusiri Kwetsika—Mafungu Anoyambuka Miganhu
Hadzisi nyaya dzese dzehukama hwenyika dziri kuSoutheast Asia dzinobva muhondo dzemauto. Mhute inoyambuka miganhu inobva mumoto wemasango nepasi—kunyanya inokanganisa Indonesia, Singapore, neMalaysia—muenzaniso wakanaka wenyaya yekuchengetedzeka isiri yechinyakare. Mhute iyi inokanganisa hutano hweveruzhinji, kutakurwa kwezvinhu, kushanya, dzidzo, uye kunyange kugadzirwa kwehupfumi. Mhedzisiro yayo ndeyepasi rose, zvichiita kuti pave nekushandira pamwe kwedunhu.
ASEAN ine Chibvumirano cheASEAN pamusoro pekusvibiswa kwehutsi kweTransboundary Haze, asi kuitwa kwacho kunowanzo kanganiswa nekuchengetedzwa kwemitemo, zvido zvehupfumi zvezvikamu zvakati, uye kudyidzana kwenzvimbo. Chidzidzo ichi chinoratidza kuti njodzi dzemazuva ano hadzigone kugadziriswa kuburikidza nekudyidzana kwepamutemo chete. Mitemo yakasimba yemuno, kudyidzana kwehunyanzvi, kujeka kwedata, uye kubatanidzwa kwemasangano asiri ehurumende akadai semakambani, maNGO, nenharaunda dzemuno zvinodiwa.
Simba Guru Rinochinja: Indo-Pacific uye Hurongwa hweNyika dzeDunhu
Southeast Asia iri pamuganhu weIndo-Pacific. United States iri kukurudzira kushandira pamwe chete mukuchengetedza, rusununguko rwekufamba netsoka, uye hukama hwehupfumi hwakasiyana. China iri kuwedzera simba rayo kuburikidza nemapurojekiti ekutengeserana, kudyara mari, uye zvivakwa. Japan neSouth Korea dziri kuwedzera mari yekudyara mumaindasitiri netekinoroji, ukuwo India neAustralia dziri kusimbisa kushandira pamwe mugungwa uye kugona kuchengetedza.
Dzimwe nyika dzeASEAN dzakapindura nenzira dzakasiyana-siyana: dzimwe dzakasimbisa kubatana kwepamutemo (semuenzaniso, Philippines neUS), dzimwe dzakasarudza kusapindira mune zvematongerwo enyika (Indonesia), uye dzimwe dzakatsigira kushandira pamwe kwehupfumi neChina. Zvisinei, chinangwa chikuru chinoramba chakafanana: kuchengetedza kuzvitonga kwehurongwa, kudzivirira kupatsanurana kwakanyanya, uye kuchengetedza chinzvimbo cheASEAN senzvimbo huru yekuvaka kwenzvimbo.
Mhedziso
Hukama hwenyika dzepasi rose muSoutheast Asia hunoratidzwa nekusanganiswa kwekushandira pamwe nemakwikwi. Gakava reSouth China Sea rinoratidza zvematongerwo enyika ekuenzanisa uye kukosha kwemutemo wepasi rose, ukuwo dambudziko reMyanmar richiratidza miganhu yekusapindira kana paine kutyorwa kwekodzero dzevanhu uye kusagadzikana kwemukati kune zvakunoreva munharaunda. RCEP inoratidza kuti kubatanidzwa kwehupfumi kunogona sei kuva chishandiso chekudzikamisa uye nzvimbo yemakwikwi pamusoro pesimba. Zvichakadaro, mhute inoyambuka miganhu inoratidza kuti kuchengetedzeka kwenharaunda ikozvino kunosanganisira nyaya dzezvakatipoteredza nehutano dzinoda mitemo chaiyo padanho renyika nedunhu.
Zvichienderera mberi, kugadzikana kweSoutheast Asia kuchaenderana zvikuru nekukwanisa kwenyika dzeASEAN kusimbisa kubatana kwemukati, kusimudzira kugona kwemasangano, uye kugadzirisa hukama nemasimba makuru pasina kurasikirwa nekuzvitonga kwakasimba. Kana ASEAN ikakwanisa kuyera musimboti wekubvumirana nekudiwa kwemhinduro dzinoshanda, dunhu iri rine mukana wekuramba riri muzinda wekukura nekugadzikana muIndo-Pacific—kwete kungova nzvimbo yekurwira simba, asi mutambi anobatsira kugadzira mitemo yedunhu.
