Momwe Index ya Mtengo wa Stock Imagwirira Ntchito
Chizindikiro cha mtengo wa masheya ndi chimodzi mwa mawu omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri pokambirana za msika wamakampani. Nkhani zikamati "Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) ikukulirakulira" kapena "Dow Jones ikufooka," kwenikweni akunena za kayendetsedwe ka chizindikiro. Komabe, kwa ambiri, zizindikiro zimawoneka ngati manambala osamvetsetseka omwe amasinthasintha mopanda tanthauzo. Komabe, zizindikiro zimagwira ntchito yofunika kwambiri: zimatithandiza kumvetsetsa momwe msika ulili, kuyerekeza momwe ndalama zimagwirira ntchito, komanso kukhala maziko azinthu monga index mutual funds ndi ETFs. Ndiye, kodi zizindikiro za mtengo wa masheya zimagwira ntchito bwanji?
Kodi chiŵerengero cha mtengo wa masheya n'chiyani?
Mwachidule, chizindikiro cha mtengo wa masheya ndi nambala yomwe imayimira mayendedwe amitengo ya gulu linalake la masheya. Ma index sagulitsidwa mwachindunji ngati masheya, koma mtengo wawo umasintha kutengera kusintha kwa mitengo ya masheya omwe ali m'gulu lawo. Chifukwa chake, ma index nthawi zambiri amatchedwa "barometers" amsika: akuwonetsa ngati msika ukukwera (bullish) kapena kutsika (bearish).
Zitsanzo za ma index otchuka ku Indonesia ndi monga Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), yomwe imasonyeza kayendetsedwe ka masheya ambiri pa Indonesia Stock Exchange. Palinso LQ45 index, yomwe ili ndi masheya 45 okhala ndi madzi ambiri ndipo nthawi zambiri imaonedwa kuti ikuyimira masheya a blue-chip.
N’chifukwa chiyani chizindikirochi chimapangidwa?
Mndandandawu umapangidwa pazifukwa zazikulu zingapo:
1. Kuyeza momwe msika ukugwirira ntchito
Ndi chithunzi chimodzi, osewera pamsika amatha kuwona mwachidule momwe msika wamasheya ulili popanda kuyang'ana mtengo uliwonse wamasheya payekhapayekha.
2. Khalani muyezo
Osunga ndalama ndi oyang'anira ndalama nthawi zambiri amayerekezera momwe ndalama zawo zimagwirira ntchito ndi index. Mwachitsanzo, kodi masheya a mutual fund angapambane Jakarta Composite Index (JCI)?
3. Zinthu zoyambira zogulira ndalama
Ma index amagwira ntchito ngati miyeso ya index mutual funds, ETFs, ndi ma derivative contracts (monga index futures). Zogulitsazi zimayesa kutsanzira kapena kutsatira momwe index imagwirira ntchito.
4. Kuthandiza pa kusanthula zachuma
Chizindikirochi nthawi zambiri chimagwiritsidwa ntchito ngati chizindikiro cha malingaliro azachuma komanso chidaliro cha osunga ndalama.
Mamembala a Index: ndi masheya ati omwe akuphatikizidwa?
Si ma index onse omwe ali ndi umembala wofanana. Ma index ena ndi otakata (omwe amaphimba masheya ambiri), pomwe ena ndi osankha. Umembala wa index umatsimikiziridwa ndi wokonza index (monga, malo osinthira kapena malo osungira index) kutengera zofunikira zina, monga:
- Kuyika ndalama pamsika (mtengo wa kampani pamsika wamasheya)
- Kuchuluka kwa ndalama (kangati masheya amagulitsidwa)
- Kuyenda kwaulere (gawo la magawo lomwe likufalikira poyera)
- Magawo enaake (monga, ma index enaake aukadaulo, sharia, kapena masheya a ogula)
- Kutsatira malamulo ena (monga sharia stock index)
Umembala wa index nthawi zambiri umayesedwa nthawi ndi nthawi, mwachitsanzo miyezi isanu ndi umodzi iliyonse. Masheya omwe sakukwaniritsa zofunikira angachotsedwe ndikusinthidwa ndi masheya ena.
Momwe mungawerengere index: kuyambira mitengo ya masheya mpaka nambala imodzi
Kuti tifotokoze mwachidule gulu la masheya kukhala nambala imodzi ya index, njira yowerengera imafunika. Njira zingapo zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri m'misika yayikulu.
1. Chizindikiro cholemera cha msika
Iyi ndi njira yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito kwambiri ndi ma index akuluakulu monga Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) ndi ma index ambiri apadziko lonse lapansi. Munjira iyi, masheya omwe ali ndi capitalizations yayikulu pamsika adzakhala ndi mphamvu yayikulu pakusintha kwa index.
Chitsanzo chosavuta:
Ngati stock A ndi kampani yayikulu ndipo stock B ndi kampani yaying'ono, kuwonjezeka kwa 1% kwa stock A "kudzakweza" index kuposa kuwonjezeka kwa 1% kwa stock B, chifukwa mtengo wa A ndi waukulu kwambiri.
Njira imeneyi imaonedwa kuti ndi yeniyeni chifukwa imasonyeza "gawo" la makampani akuluakulu pamsika. Komabe, zotsatira zake n'zakuti index ikhoza kukhudzidwa kwambiri ndi masheya ochepa akuluakulu.
2. Chiyerekezo cha mtengo
Mu njira iyi, masheya omwe ali ndi mitengo yokwera pa share iliyonse amakhala ndi mphamvu yayikulu, mosasamala kanthu za kukula kwa kampani. Chitsanzo chodziwika kwambiri ndi Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
Vuto la njira iyi ndilakuti mitengo ya masheya ikhoza kukhala yokwera chifukwa pali masheya ochepa omwe atsala, osati chifukwa chakuti kampaniyo ndi yayikulu. Chifukwa chake, ma index ambiri amakono amakonda kuwerengera kuchuluka kwa masheya pamsika.
3. Chizindikiro cholemera chofanana
Mu index yofanana, masheya aliwonse ali ndi mphamvu yofanana. Chifukwa chake, kayendetsedwe ka index ndi kayendedwe kapakati ka masheya onse omwe ali mamembala.
Ubwino wake: index ndi "yofanana" kwambiri ndipo siili ndi masheya akuluakulu. Choyipa chake: n'kovuta kwambiri kutsatira ndalama zomwe zayikidwa chifukwa zimafuna kubwezeretsanso ndalama pafupipafupi, ndipo ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zina zimakhala zokwera.
Udindo wa "chaka cha maziko" ndi nambala ya index ya maziko
Kuti indekisi ikhale ndi tanthauzo, wopanga indekisi amaika mtengo woyambira pa nthawi inayake (tsiku loyambira). Mwachitsanzo, pa tsiku linalake, indekisi imayikidwa pa 100 kapena 1.000. Pambuyo pake, kusinthasintha kwa indekisi kumasonyeza kusintha kwa mtengo wa gulu la masheya poyerekeza ndi poyambira pamenepo.
Ngati indekisi ikukwera kuchoka pa 1.000 kufika pa 1.200, zikutanthauza kuti pa avareji (malinga ndi njira yolemerera), mtengo wa gulu la masheya wakwera ndi pafupifupi 20% poyerekeza ndi nthawi yomwe indekisiyo idakhazikitsidwa pa 1.000.
N’chifukwa chiyani pali “kusintha” kwa index?
Kuwerengera kwa index sikungokhudza kusinthasintha kwa mitengo kokha. Zochitika zamakampani zitha kusokoneza kuwerengera ngati sikunasinthidwe, monga:
- Kugawa magawo (kugawa kwa mtengo wodziwika ndi mtengo wa magawo)
- Kugawanika kobwerera m'mbuyo
- Nkhani ya ufulu (kuperekedwa kwa magawo atsopano okhala ndi ufulu woyambirira)
- Magawo a magawo
- Phukira
- Kusintha kwa chiwerengero cha magawo omwe atsala
Popanda kusintha, index ikhoza kukwera kapena kutsika "kobodza" chifukwa cha kusintha kwaukadaulo, osati chifukwa cha kufooka kapena kulimba kwenikweni kwa msika. Chifukwa chake, okonza index amagwiritsa ntchito adjustment factor (nthawi zina imatchedwa divisor kapena adjustment factor) kuti asunge kusinthasintha ndikuwonetsa kusintha kwenikweni kwa phindu lazachuma.
Mndandanda wa mitengo poyerekeza ndi mndandanda wa zonse zomwe zabwezedwa
Anthu ambiri amaganiza kuti ma index amangowonetsa phindu la ndalama zomwe zayikidwa. Komabe, ma index omwe amapezeka nthawi zambiri m'nkhani nthawi zambiri amakhala ma index a mitengo: amangoyesa kusintha kwa mitengo yamasheya.
Palinso chiŵerengero cha phindu lonse, chomwe chimaphatikizaponso momwe phindu limakhudzira (ngati phindu limabwezeretsedwanso). Pakapita nthawi, phindu likhoza kukhala lofunika kwambiri. Chifukwa chake, magwiridwe antchito a investor portfolio amatha kusiyana poyerekeza mtengo wa index ndi chiwerengero cha phindu lonse.
Kodi ma index amakhudza bwanji osunga ndalama?
Chizindikiro si nambala yokha pazenera. Chimakhudza kwambiri, mwachitsanzo:
1. Khalani chitsanzo cha njira zosungira ndalama zopanda ntchito
Ogulitsa ndalama amatha kugula ma index mutual funds kapena ma ETF omwe amatsanzira index inayake. Ngati index ikukwera, malondawo amakweranso (kupatula ndalama zolipirira).
2. Kupititsa patsogolo kayendedwe ka ndalama ku masheya ena
Pamene masheya alowa mu index yotchuka, kufunikira nthawi zambiri kumawonjezeka chifukwa ma index funds ndi oyang'anira ndalama amafunika kugula masheyawo kuti agwirizane ndi index. Mosiyana ndi zimenezi, masheya omwe sali mu index amatha kukhala ndi vuto logulitsa.
3. Kupanga malingaliro amsika
Pamene JCI ikutsika kwambiri, malingaliro a osunga ndalama amathanso kuchepa, ngakhale kuti masheya onse sakutsika kwambiri. Chizindikirochi chimagwira ntchito ngati chizindikiro cha maganizo.
Zofooka za index ya mtengo wa masheya
Ngakhale kuti ndi zothandiza, ma index ali ndi zofooka:
- Sikuti nthawi zonse zimayimira mikhalidwe yonse ya osunga ndalama
Msika ukhoza kukwera chifukwa masheya akuluakulu akukwera, pomwe masheya ang'onoang'ono ambiri akutsika.
- Kulemera kwakhudzidwa
Mu index yolemera ya msika, masheya ochepa amatha kulamulira kayendetsedwe kake.
– Sichiwonetsa phindu lenileni la woyika ndalama zokha
Ndalama zogulira, misonkho, ndi magawo (ngati mukugwiritsa ntchito chizindikiro cha mtengo) sizimawonetsedwa nthawi zonse.
Mapeto
Chizindikiro cha mitengo ya masheya chimagwira ntchito pofotokoza mwachidule kayendetsedwe ka gulu la masheya kukhala nambala imodzi yosavuta kuyang'aniridwa. Chimapangidwa pogwiritsa ntchito malamulo enieni osankha mamembala ndi njira zowerengera—nthawi zambiri zimayesedwa ndi kuchuluka kwa ndalama pamsika. Mtengo wa chizindikirocho umasintha ndi kusintha kwa mitengo ya magawo a mamembala ake ndipo umasinthidwa kuti zigwirizane ndi zochita zamakampani kuti zitsimikizire kuti kayendetsedwe kake kakuwonetsa momwe msika ulili. Pomvetsetsa momwe zizindikiro zimagwirira ntchito, amalonda amatha kuwerenga bwino nkhani zamsika, kusankha njira zosungira ndalama, ndikuwunika momwe ndalama zawo zimagwirira ntchito.
Ngati mukufuna, nditha kuwonjezera chitsanzo chowerengera index ndi manambala osavuta (gawo ndi gawo) kapena kuyerekeza IHSG, LQ45, ndi index ya stock yachisilamu kuchokera ku njira yodziwira.
