Te Mārama ki te Taupū Oscillation o te Tonga me ōna Whakamahinga
Pendahuluan
He nui te pānga o te rerekētanga o te āhuarangi i ngā rohe pārūrū, inā koa i te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ki te huarere me te āhuarangi i ngā rohe maha o te ao, tae atu ki Initonīhia. Ko tētahi o ngā āhuatanga tino nui e pā ana ki ngā huringa o ngā tauira huarere ā-wā me ā-tau ko te ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). E rua ngā wāhanga matua o te ENSO: he wāhanga moana (El Niño/La Niña e pā ana ki te pāmahana o te mata o te moana) me te wāhanga āhuarangi (ngā oscillation o te pēhanga hau). Hei ine i tēnei wāhanga āhuarangi, ka whakamahia te Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). He tohutoro nui tēnei taupū i roto i te tātari āhuarangi, te matapae ā-wā, me te whakahaere mōrearea aituā wai me te rangi.
Te Mārama ki te Taupū Oscillation Tonga (SOI)
Ko te Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) he taupū āhuarangi e whakaahua ana i te rerekētanga o te pēhanga o te taumata moana i waenga i ngā wāhi matua e rua o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa pārūrū: Tahiti (waenganui-mā-rāwhiti o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa) me Darwin, Ahitereiria (uru o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa). E whakaata ana tēnei rerekētanga pēhanga i ngā huringa o te kaha o te tohanga Walker, he tohanga āhuarangi e ahu mai ana i te rawhiti ki te hauauru i ngā rohe pārūrū e whai wāhi nui ana ki te hanganga kapua, te ua, me ngā tauira hau.
I roto i te ariā, ina teitei ake te pēhanga i Tahiti i tō Darwin, ka kaha ake ngā hau hokohoko mai i te rawhiti ki te hauauru, ka akiaki i te kohikohinga o te wai mahana i te taha hauauru o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ka piki ake te hanganga kapua me te ua i Indonesia me ōna rohe huri noa. I tetahi atu taha, ina iti iho te pēhanga i Tahiti i tō Darwin, ka ngoikore te tauira hau hokohoko, ka neke te wai mahana ki te taha waenganui-rawhiti o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ā, he maha ngā wā ka iti haere te hanganga kapua o Indonesia, ka piki ake te tūponotanga o te tauraki.
Nō reira, ka āwhina te SOI i a tātou ki te mārama ki ngā āhua o te hau e pā tata ana ki ngā wāhanga ENSO: El Niño me La Niña.
Te Mahi a te SOI me te Whakamāori i ngā Uara
Ko ngā uara SOI e whakaatuhia ana i te nuinga o te wā hei tau pai, hei tau kino rānei:
1. He pai te SOI (he pai kaha)
– E tohu ana he teitei ake te pēhanga i Tahiti, he iti iho rānei te pēhanga i Darwin i ngā āhuatanga noa.
– E hono ana ki te La Niña, te wāhi e kaha ake ai te tohanga toto o te Walker.
– Pānga whānui: te pikinga o te ua ki Initonīhia (ahakoa ka rerekē te kaha i waenga i ngā rohe).
2. He kino te SOI (kino kaha)
– E tohu ana he iti iho te pēhanga i Tahiti, he teitei ake rānei te pēhanga i Darwin i ngā āhuatanga noa.
– E pā ana ki te El Niño, te wāhi e ngoikore ai te tohanga toto o te Walker.
– Pānga whānui: te hekenga o te ua ki Initonīhia me te pikinga ake o te tūponotanga o te tauraki.
3. E tata ana te SOI ki te kore
– E tohu ana i ngā āhuatanga āhua kūpapa, kāore he kaha o El Niño, o La Niña rānei.
– Heoi, kāore ngā āhuatanga kūpapa e kī ana he "noa" i ngā wā katoa, nā te mea ka pāngia te rangi e ētahi atu āhuatanga pēnei i te IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) me te MJO (Madden–Julian Oscillation).
I roto i te mahi, he maha ngā wā ka tirohia e ngā kairangahau me ngā tari matawhenua te SOI toharite mō tētahi wā motuhake (hei tauira, ia wiki, ia marama rānei) hei whakaiti i te haruru o ia rā. He nui ake te hiranga o ngā uara pai, kino rānei mō ētahi wiki/marama hei tautuhi i ngā wāhanga ENSO i ngā piki me ngā heke o te rangi.
Te hononga o SOI ki El Niño me La Niña
He tohu āhuarangi te SOI, engari ko El Niño/La Niña ka kitea pinepine mā roto i ngā tohu moana pērā i ngā rerekētanga o te pāmahana o te mata o te moana (SST) i te rohe o Niño 3.4. He rite tonu te āhua o ngā mea e rua, engari kāore i te 100% te ōrite nā te uaua o ngā taunekeneke o te moana me te āhuarangi.
– I te wā o te El Niño, ka mahana haere te pāmahana o te mata o te moana i te tonga-mā-rāwhiti o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ka neke te pokapū o te kapua ki te rāwhiti, ka ngoikore ngā hau hokohoko, ā, he kino te SOI.
– I te wā o La Niña, ka mātao te pāmahana o te mata o te moana i waenganui-mā-rāwhiti o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ka kaha ake ngā hau hokohoko, ka kaha ake te hanganga kapua i te taha uru o te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ā, he pai te āhua o te SOI.
Nō reira, mā te aroturuki i te SOI me ngā tohu SST ka puta he pikitia whānui ake mō te mana o te ENSO.
Taupānga Taupū Oscillation ki te Tonga
He maha ngā whakamahinga mahi a te SOI e pā ana ki ngā tauira hau, te ua, me ngā āhuatanga rerekē o te rangi. Anei ētahi o ōna whakamahinga:
1. Matapae mō te Wā me te Ua
I ngā rohe pēnei i a Initonīhia, Ahitereiria, me ngā whenua o Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa, ka whakamahia te SOI hei whakauru ki te aromatawai i ngā huringa pea o ngā tauira ua.
– Mā te SOI kino roa ka tohu pea i te pikinga ake o te tūponotanga o te wā maroke, hei tauira, te whakaroa i te tīmatanga o te wā ua, te iti rānei o te kaha o te ua.
– He maha ngā wā e hono ana te SOI pai mō te wā roa ki te tūponotanga o te wā ua nui, te pikinga ake o te ua nui, te roa rānei o te wā ua.
He mea whai hua ēnei mōhiohio mā ngā tari matawhenua huarere ki te whakarite i ngā matapae o ngā wā, me te āwhina hoki i te marea ki te matapae i ngā huringa.
2. Te Whakahaere Rauemi Wai
He nui te pānga o te ua ki te whakahaere i ngā puna wai, te whakamakuku, me te tohatoha wai ma. Mā te aroturuki i te SOI:
– Ka taea e ngā kaiwhakahaere puna wai te whakarite i ngā rautaki rokiroki wai ina puta mai ngā tohu El Niño (SOI kino).
– I tetahi atu taha, ina kaha ngā tohu o te La Niña (SOI pai), ka taea e ngā kaiwhakahaere te whakanui ake i te whakarite mō te nui o te rerenga wai, tae atu ki te whakaiti i te waipuke i ngā wāhi o raro.
3. Ahuwhenua me te Haumarutanga Kai
He tino pāngia te rāngai ahuwhenua e ngā panonitanga o te wā ua. Ka taea e te SOI te āwhina:
– Whakatauhia he wā whakato e tika ana.
– Kōwhiria te momo tipu e tika ana (ātete ki te tauraki, ātete rānei ki te wai).
– Te whakamahere i ngā hiahia whakamakuku me ngā rautaki whakamomona.
Hei tauira, i te wā o te El Niño, ka tūpono pea ngā kaimahi pāmu i ngā rohe ua ki te tūponotanga o te korenga o ngā hua, te iti rānei o ngā hua, ā, me whakarerekē te maramataka whakato, me whakawhānui rānei i ngā hua.
4. Te Whakaiti i ngā Āhuatanga Āhuarangi
E tautoko ana a SOI i te whakatūpato wawe mō ngā tūponotanga ā-pāpāho pēnei i:
– Te tauraki me ngā ahi ngahere/whenua i te wā e mau tonu ana te SOI kino (e pā ana ki te El Niño).
– Ngā waipuke me ngā horo whenua i te wā o te SOI pai kaha (e pā ana ki te La Niña) nā te mea ka piki ake pea te ua.
Ahakoa ehara te SOI i te tohu anake, he mea whai hua hei whakarato i te horopaki mō ngā āhuatanga āhuarangi nui e ārahi ana i ngā huarere kino.
5. Ngā Hī ika me ngā Pūnaha Rauropi Moana
Ka pāngia ngā tauira o te ia o te moana, te puea ake o te wai, me te wātea o ngā matūkai e ngā panonitanga ENSO. Ahakoa he tika ake ngā tohu o te moana, ka āwhina te SOI ki te mārama ki ngā āhuatanga o te āhuarangi e akiaki ana i ēnei panonitanga. Ka taea e ngā pānga te toro atu ki te hua o ngā mahi hī ika, te hekenga ika, tae noa ki te hauora o te rauropi takutai.
6. Rangahau Āhuarangi me te Whakatauira
I roto i ngā rangahau, ka whakamahia te SOI ki:
– Tirohia te whanaungatanga tatauranga i waenga i ngā rerekētanga pēhanga me ngā rerekētanga ua/pāmahana.
– Te whakamana i ngā tauira āhuarangi me te whakapai ake i te mahi matapae ENSO.
– Tātarihia ngā hononga waea āhuarangi, arā, ngā hononga tawhiti i waenganui i te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa me ētahi atu rohe o te ao.
Ngā herenga o te SOI
Ahakoa tōna whai huatanga, he iti noa iho ngā herenga o te SOI. Tuatahi, ko te pēhanga hau anake i waenganui i ngā pūwāhi e rua e tohu ana, nō reira kāore e taea te hopu i te uauatanga katoa o te āhuarangi pārūrū. Tuarua, ko te pānga o te ENSO ki te ua i Indonesia ka pāngia e ētahi atu āhuatanga pēnei i te IOD, te MJO, te hau marangai o Āhia-Ahitereiria, me ngā āhuatanga ā-rohe pēnei i te āhua whenua me ngā pāmahana moana ā-rohe. Nō reira, me whakamahi te SOI me ētahi atu tohu me ngā raraunga huarere kia tika ake ai te whakamārama.
Whakamutunga
Ko te Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) he tohu matua e whakaata ana i te rerekētanga o te pēhanga hau i waenganui i a Tahiti me Darwin, e whakamahia ana hei aroturuki i ngā huringa o te tohanga hau i te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa pārūrū. Ko ngā uara SOI kino e hono ana ki a El Niño me te tūponotanga o ngā āhuatanga maroke ake i Indonesia, ko ngā uara SOI pai e hono ana ki a La Niña me te tūponotanga o ngā āhuatanga makuku ake. He whānui ōna whakamahinga, mai i te matapae ā-wā, te whakahaere wai, te ahuwhenua, te whakaiti i ngā āhuatanga kino, me te rangahau āhuarangi. Heoi, kāore te SOI e tū takitahi, me whakamārama tahi me ētahi atu tohu āhuarangi kia pai ake ai te whakatau i ngā whakataunga āhuarangi whai whakaaro me te pono.
Ki te hiahia koe, ka taea hoki e au te tāpiri i ngā tauira mō te pānga o te SOI ki Indonesia (hei tauira i ētahi tau El Niño/La Niña) ka taea rānei e au te whakahiato i tētahi putanga o te tuhinga me tētahi hanganga pūtaiao katoa (whakarāpopototanga–tikanga–kōrero–rārangi pukapuka).
