Ngā Tikanga Matapae i roto i te Whakahaere
Ko te matapae he tukanga mō te matapae i ngā āhuatanga o te heke mai i runga i ngā raraunga o mua me ngā mōhiohio o nāianei. I roto i te horopaki whakahaere, ko te matapae te tūāpapa mō te whakatau kaupapa—mai i te whakamahere whakaputa me te whakahaere taonga ki te whakatakoto whāinga hoko me te whakamahere kaha o te hunga mahi. Ina taea e ngā whakahaere te matapae whai hua, ka taea te whakaiti i te mōrearea o te koretake, ka taea te tohatoha rauemi me te tere ake te hopu i ngā whai wāhitanga mākete i ngā kaiwhakataetae. Heoi, ehara te matapae i te "whakapae" noa iho; me whai tikanga, raraunga e tika ana, me te aromatawai tika.
He aha te hiranga o te matapae i roto i te whakahaere?
I roto i ngā mahi whakahaere, me whakatau ngā whakataunga i mua i te kitenga o ngā hua tūturu. Hei tauira, me tono pea e te kamupene ngā rauemi mata i mua i te taenga mai o te hiahia o ngā kaihoko, me whakatau rānei i tētahi tahua hokohoko i mua i te mōhio ki te urupare a te mākete. Koinei te wāhi e noho ai te matapae hei taputapu nui. Ka āwhina te matapae ki te whakaiti i te koretake, ka tautoko i te whakamahere rautaki mō te wā roa, ā, ka whakapakari i te whakamahere mahi mō te wā poto.
Hei tāpiritanga, ka whakapai ake hoki te matapae i te mahi tahi i waenga i ngā tari. Me whai anga matapae noa ngā hoko, ngā mahi whakahaere, te pūtea, me te HR kia kore ai e taupatupatu ngā whakataunga. Arā, ka āwhina te matapae i ngā whakahaere ki te whakatere i tētahi "mahere" ōrite.
Ngā momo matapae
I te nuinga o te wā, ka taea te wehewehe i te matapae i roto i te whakahaere i runga i tōna pae wā:
1. Wā poto (ia rā ki ētahi marama): ko te tikanga mō ngā whakataunga whakahaere pēnei i te whakaritenga whakaputa, te hoko, me te tohatoha.
2. Wā waenga (e hia marama ki te 2 tau): e whakamahia ana mō te whakamahere kaha, te whakatakoto tahua, me te whakahaere rawa.
3. Mō te wā roa (neke atu i te 2 tau): e whakamahia ana mō ngā whakataunga rautaki pēnei i te whakawhānui i te wheketere, te whakawhanaketanga hua hou, te urunga rānei ki ngā mākete hou.
Ka taea hoki te whakarōpū i te matapae mā tōna huarahi: te kounga me te rahinga. Ko ngā huarahi kounga e whakawhirinaki ana ki te whakatau a te tohunga me ngā mōhiohio kore-tau, ko ngā huarahi rahinga ia e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā raraunga tau me ngā tauira tatauranga.
Ngā Tikanga Matapae Kounga
He whai hua ngā tikanga kounga ina he iti ngā raraunga o mua, ina tere te huri o te taiao, ina whakaarohia rānei e te whakahaere tētahi mea hou rawa (hei tauira, he hua auaha). Ko ētahi o ngā tikanga kounga e whakamahia whānuitia ana ko:
1. Tikanga Delphi
Ko te tikanga Delphi e whai wāhi ana ki tētahi rōpū tohunga e whakarato ana i ngā whakatau tata me te kore ingoa mō ētahi rauna. I muri i ia rauna, ka whakarāpopototia ngā hua ka whakahokia ki ngā tohunga hei arotake kia tae rā anō ki te whakaae tahi. Ko tōna painga he whakaiti i te mana o ētahi rōpū, ā, he whakatenatena i ngā aromatawai whaitake ake.
2. Te Rangahau Mākete me te Hiahia Hoko
Ka taea e ngā kamupene te kohikohi i ngā whakaaro o ngā kiritaki pea mā roto i ngā pātai, ngā uiuinga, ngā whakamātautau hua rānei. Ka āwhina ēnei tikanga ki te matapae i te tono, inā koa mō ngā hua hou. Ko ō rātou herenga ko ngā urupare a ngā kiritaki he whakaaro pōhewa, ā, kāore pea ngā whakaaro e puta hei hoko tūturu.
3. Te Huuri o ngā Whakaaro Whakahaere
Ka matapakihia, ka whakatauria hoki e ngā kaiwhakahaere matua, e ngā tumuaki tari rānei, ngā matapae ā-muri mō ngā mea kei te heke mai, i runga i ō rātou wheako. He tere, he whai hua hoki tēnei tikanga, engari he ngāwari ki te whakaaro takitahi me te tino whakapono ki tētahi mea.
4. Te Anarau Hītori
Mena he rite tētahi hua hou, tētahi āhuatanga rānei ki tētahi āhuatanga o mua, ka taea e tētahi whakahaere te whakamahi i ngā tauira o mua hei aratohu. Hei tauira, ka taea te matapae i te whakarewatanga o tētahi momo inu hou mā te titiro ki te mahi a ngā whakarewatanga o mua.
Ngā Tikanga Matapae Tauanga
He tika ngā tikanga tauanga ina wātea ngā raraunga hītori, ā, he mea nui ngā tauira o mua. Ko te tikanga, ko ēnei tikanga he tauira raupapa wā me ngā tauira take-me-pānga.
A. Te Matapae Raupapa Wā
E whakaaro ana tēnei tauira kei roto i ngā tauira tono o mua ngā mōhiohio nui hei matapae i te heke mai. Ko ngā wāhanga noa o ngā raupapa wā ko ngā au, te ā-wā, ngā huringa, me ngā rerekētanga matapōkere.
1. Te Toharite Nekehanga
Ka tatauhia e tēnei tikanga te toharite o ētahi wā tata nei. Hei tauira, ka whakamahia te toharite o ngā marama e toru kua hipa hei matapae i te marama e whai ake nei. He ngāwari te mārama ki ngā toharite nekehanga māmā, ā, ka whakangawari i ngā piki me ngā heke matapōkere, engari kāore i te tino aro ki ngā huringa ohorere o te ia.
2. Te Whakamaeneene Taupūnga
Ka nui ake te taumaha o tēnei tikanga ki ngā raraunga hou. Ka whakamahia e te tātai he pūmau whakangawari (α). Ko te nui ake o te α, ko te nui ake o te aro o te matapae ki ngā huringa hou. He rongonui tēnei tikanga nā te mea he ngāwari ki te whakatinana i roto i ngā pūnaha mōhiohio umanga, ā, he tika hoki mō ngā āhuatanga whakahaere maha.
3. Tātari Auaha (Matapae Auaha)
Mena kei te whakaatuhia e ngā raraunga he ia piki, he ia heke rānei, ka taea e te kamupene te matapae i te ia mā te whakamahi i tētahi huarahi rārangi-tika (he whakahekenga ngāwari i roto i te wā). He whai hua tēnei tikanga mō te tipu pumau o te tono, engari me tūpato ina he kaha ngā tauira o te wā.
4. Te Pirautanga o te Wā
Mena he ā-wā te tono (hei tauira, ka piki ake ngā hoko i te wā o Ramadan, i te mutunga rānei o te tau), ka wehea e te tikanga wehewehe ngā wāhanga o te ia me ngā wāhanga o te wā, ka whakakotahi i aua wāhanga hei whakaputa i tētahi matapae. He tika ake tēnei tikanga mō ngā pakihi hokohoko ā-wā.
B. Tauira Taketake (Pānga-me-te-Pānga)
Ka rapua e ngā tauira take ngā whanaungatanga take-me-pānga i waenga i te taurangi i matapaetia me ētahi atu taurangi e awe ana i taua taurangi.
1. Whakamuritanga Raina
Ko te whakatau tata o te tono (Y) ka ahu mai i tētahi, neke atu rānei o ngā taurangi motuhake (X), pērā i te utu, te moni whiwhi, te whakapaunga pānuitanga rānei. Mā te whakatau tata ka mārama ngā kaiwhakahaere ki ngā pūtake o te tono, kaua ki te whakaatu noa i ngā tauira o mua.
2. Whakamuritanga Maha
Mena he maha ngā āhuatanga e pā ana ki te putanga, ka taea te whakamahi i te whakatautau maha. Hei tauira, ka pāngia ngā hoko e te utu, te whakatairanga, te kounga tohatoha, me ngā au ohaoha. Ko te wero ko te whakarite i te kounga o ngā raraunga me te karo i te maha o ngā hononga.
3. Ngā Tauira me ngā Whakatauira Ōhanga
Mō ngā whakahaere nunui, ka taea e ngā tauira ōhanga te whakakotahi i ngā whārite maha hei matapae i te pānga o ngā huringa o te kaupapa here utu, ngā reiti huamoni, ngā reiti whakawhiti moni, ngā āhuatanga ōhanga whānui rānei. Ka whakamahia hoki ngā whakatauira (hei tauira, Monte Carlo) hei whakamātautau i ngā āhuatanga koretake.
Te Ine i te Tika o te Matapae
Me whakamātau i te tika o tētahi matapae pai. Ko ētahi o ngā inenga hapa e whakamahia whānuitia ana ko:
– MAD (Toharite Mutunga Kore): te rerekētanga tino toharite i waenga i te matapae me ngā raraunga tuturu.
– MSE (Hapa Tapawhā Toharite): hapa tapawhā toharite, e pāngia ana e ngā hapa nui.
– MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error): te ōrau toharite o te hapa tino, e āwhina ana i te whakatairite i waenga i ngā hua.
Mā te ine i te tika, ka taea e ngā kaiwhakahaere te whiriwhiri i te tikanga tino tika, te whakarerekē i ngā tawhā (hei tauira, te α i roto i te whakaeneene taupūnga), me te tautuhi i te wā e hiahiatia ana te whakahou i te tauira.
Ngā Wero i roto i te Whakamahinga Matapae
Ahakoa te whanaketanga o ngā tikanga matapae, kei te toe tonu ētahi wero. Tuatahi, ka kore e oti, ka kore rānei e ōrite ngā raraunga o mua. Tuarua, ko ngā panonitanga o ngā whanonga a te kaihoko, te whakakorenga hangarau, ngā raruraru ōhanga rānei ka kore e whai tikanga ngā raraunga o mua. Tuatoru, ko ngā whakaaro pākiki a te tangata—pērā i te tino hihiri—ka pā ki te whakamaoritanga o ngā hua matapae. Nō reira, me whakakotahi ngā whakahaere i ngā huarahi tauanga me ngā huarahi kounga, ā, me whakahou tonu i ā rātou tauira.
Te Katinga
He taputapu nui ngā tikanga matapae i roto i te whakahaere mō te whakamahere ā-muri ake ka taea te ine. Mai i ngā tikanga kounga pēnei i a Delphi me ngā rangahau mākete ki ngā tikanga tauanga pēnei i te toharite neke, te whakangawari taupū, me te whakatauira, he painga me ngā herenga o ia tikanga. Ko te kī ki te matapae angitu ehara i te mea ko te whiriwhiri noa i te tikanga tino matatau; engari ko te whakarite kia pai ngā raraunga, te whakarite kia tika te tikanga ki te horopaki pakihi, me te arotake tonu i tōna tika. Mā te matapae tika, ka taea e te whakahaere te whakatau tere ake, te whai hua ake, me te whakarite kia pai ake te aro atu ki te koretake o te mākete.
