Te Mārama ki ngā Āhuatanga me ngā Huakore o te Hokohoko Koura
Kua rongonui te hokohoko koura mō te tini e rapu ana i ngā huarahi hua i roto i ngā mākete pūtea. He maha ngā wā e kiia ana te koura he rawa "pūmau" nā te mea he pumau tonu tōna uara i ngā wā e piki haere ana te koretake o te ōhanga. Heoi, ehara i te mea ko te hokohoko koura anake te hoko iti me te hoko teitei. Kei roto ko ngā āhuatanga maha e pā ana ki ngā nekehanga utu, ngā momo taputapu hei whiriwhiri, me ngā rautaki nui me te whakahaere mōrearea. Ka matapakihia e tēnei tuhinga ngā āhuatanga katoa o te hokohoko koura hei whakarato i tētahi tirohanga mārama ake i mua i te ruku ki roto.
1. He aha te take e ātaahua ai te koura ki te hokohoko?
He āhua ahurei te koura nā te mea e rua ngā mahi e whai hua ai: hei taonga hokohoko, hei rawa haumi, me te tohu uara. Ina piki te pikinga o te utu, ina ngoikore ngā moni, ina puta rānei he raruraru ā-ao, he maha ngā kaipupuri moni e whakawhiti ana i ā rātou moni ki te koura hei pupuri i te mana hoko. Ka whai wāhi tēnei ki te nekehanga auau me te kaha o ngā utu koura, ka ātaahua ai ki ngā kaihokohoko e rapu ana i te pikinga me ngā whai wāhitanga.
Hei tāpiri atu, he tino rere te mākete koura, inā koa mō ngā taputapu o te ao pēnei i te XAU/USD (te koura ki te tāra US). Mā tēnei rere ka taea te tere ake te whakahaere i ngā tauwhitinga, ngā horapa whakataetae (i runga i te kaihokohoko, i te tūāpapa rānei), me ngā whai wāhitanga hokohoko e wātea ana i te ao katoa i ngā hāora hokohoko o te ao.
2. Ngā Taputapu i roto i te Hokohoko Koura
I mua i tō tātou tīmatanga, he mea nui kia mārama tātou ka taea te hokohoko koura mā roto i ngā momo taputapu maha, he rerekē ngā āhuatanga, ngā utu, me ngā mōrearea o ia taputapu.
1. Koura tūturu
Ka taea te waiho hei paera, hei whakapaipai rānei. He pai mō te haumitanga roa, kaua mō te hokohoko poto, nā te mea he nui ngā utu tā, ngā utu rokiroki, me ngā horahanga nui.
2. Te ira koura (XAU/USD)
Koinei tētahi o ngā taputapu rongonui i runga i ngā tūāpapa forex/CFD. Ka whakaaroaro ngā kaihokohoko mō te nekehanga o te utu o te koura ki te tāra. Ko ōna painga ko te ngāwari (hoko/hoko), te huanga, me te ngāwari o te uru atu. Ko ngā ngoikoretanga ko te nui o te mōrearea nā te huanga me ngā utu whakawhiti pea mēnā ka puritia i te pō kotahi.
3. Ngā hokohoko koura ā-mua
He paerewa ake, he mārama ake hoki ngā kirimana ā-mua e hokohokohia ana i runga i ngā whakawhitinga moni pēnei i te COMEX, engari me nui ake te māramatanga hangarau, me nui ake ngā rahi kirimana, me te whakahaere tawhē tino pakari.
4. ETF Koura
Ka taea e ngā Tahua Hokohoko-Whakawhitiwhiti pērā i te SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) te whakamahi i te koura me te kore e pupuri moni tūturu. He pai ēnei mō ngā kaipupuri moni e hiahia ana ki te whai i ngā utu koura, ahakoa he utu whakahaere tonu kei a rātou.
5. Ngā hea o te kamupene keri koura
Ka piki pea ngā hea o ngā kaiwhakaputa koura ina piki ngā utu koura, engari ka awehia hoki e ngā āhuatanga o roto o te kamupene pēnei i ngā utu whakaputa, te whakahaere, me ngā āhuatanga whakahaere.
Me whakarite te whiriwhiri i tētahi taputapu ki ō whāinga (te hokohoko tere me te haumi), te manawanui ki ngā mōrearea, me te urunga ki te mākete.
3. Ngā Āhuatanga e Pā Ana ki ngā Utu Koura
He maha ngā mea e pāngia ana e ngā taurangi maha mō ngā utu koura. Ko ētahi o ngā mea tino nui ko:
– Uara o te tāra US (USD)
Nā te mea ko te koura e hokohokohia ana i roto i te USD, ka heke te utu o te koura mēnā ka kaha ake te tāra, engari ka tautokohia ngā utu o te koura e te tāra ngoikore. Kāore tēnei whanaungatanga i te tino pai i ngā wā katoa, engari ka kitea i roto i te wā poto.
– Ngā reiti huamoni me ngā kaupapa here a te peeke matua
Ina piki ake ngā reiti huamoni, ka nui ake te kukume o ngā rawa whai huamoni pēnei i ngā here, ka heke te pēhanga ki runga i te koura (kāore e utu huamoni). I tetahi atu taha, ina heke ngā reiti huamoni, ina kitea rānei he tohu o te whakangāwari moni, ka kaha ake te koura.
– Ngā tumanakohanga mō te pikinga me te pikinga
He maha ngā wā e kiia ana te koura he ārai i te pikinga o ngā utu. Mēnā he nui te pikinga o ngā utu, ā, kei te āwangawanga te iwi mō te hekenga o te mana hoko, ka piki ake pea te hiahia mō te koura.
– Ngā raruraru ā-rohe me te raruraru ōhanga
Ko ngā taupatupatu pakanga, ngā raruraru peeke, ngā ōhanga o te tohanga, ngā āwangawanga rānei o te ao whānui e whakaoho ana i te "rere ki te haumaru" ki te koura.
– Te hiahia ā-tinana me te hiahia ā-ahumahi
He pānga anō hoki tō te tono mō ngā whakapaipai (hei tauira, mai i Īnia me Haina), ngā hoko a te peeke matua, me ngā hiahia ahumahi, ahakoa he nui ake te pānga o ngā āhuatanga whānui ki ngā kaihokohoko o ia rā.
4. Tātaritanga e whakamahia whānuitia ana e ngā Kaihokohoko Koura
Ko te tikanga, ka whakakotahi ngā kaihokohoko i ētahi o ngā huarahi e whai ake nei:
a) Tātaritanga taketake
Arotahi ki ngā raraunga ōhanga me ngā raraunga kaupapa here, pērā i te pikinga utu (CPI), ngā raraunga mahi o te US (Utu Kore-Pamu), te reiti huamoni a te Fed, me ngā kōrero a ngā āpiha o te peeke matua. He maha ngā nekehanga koi o te koura e puta ana i ngā tukunga raraunga nui. Me mārama ngā kaihokohoko ki te maramataka ōhanga me te pānga o ngā raraunga ohorere ki ngā kare ā-roto o te mākete.
b) Tātari hangarau
Te whakamahi i ngā tūtohi utu hei pānui i ngā au me te tere. Ko ngā taputapu e whakamahia whānuitia ana ko:
– Tautoko me te ātete hei tiro i te rohe o te pikinga o te utu, te pakaru rānei.
– Te Toharite Nekehanga hei tautuhi i ngā au.
– RSI/Stochastic hei pānui i te hoko nui/hoko nui.
– Ngā nekehanga utu pērā i ngā pine pin, te engulfing, te breakout rānei.
E mōhiotia ana te tere o te nekehanga o te koura, nō reira he mea nui te whakahaere i te taumata hangarau me te whakahaere mōrearea.
c) Ngā kare ā-roto o te mākete
Ka taea te ine i ngā kare ā-roto mā roto i ngā nekehanga o te tāra, ngā hua here o Amerika, ngā tohu rānei pērā i te Commitment of Traders (COT). Ka kitea anō hoki ngā kare ā-roto i roto i te rere o ngā moni ki ngā ETF koura, ki ngā hokonga peeke pokapū rānei.
5. Rautaki Hokohoko Koura Taketake
He maha ngā momo momo hokohoko, ā, kāore tetahi i te tino tika. Anei ētahi rautaki noa:
– Te whai i ngā au
Tomo ki tētahi tūranga i te ahunga o te ia matua. Ko te tikanga, ka tatari ngā kaihokohoko kia hoki whakamuri ki tētahi rohe tautoko/ātete, ki tētahi toharite neke rānei i mua i te tomo.
– Te hokohoko pakaru
Whakamahia ngā pakarutanga taumata matua. He pai i ngā wā e piki haere ana te pōrearea, engari he ngāwari ki te pakaru teka mēnā kāore i te whakaūtia e te rahinga, e te nekehanga rānei.
– Te hokinga whakamuri toharite (whakamuri)
Te arotahi ki te hurihanga i muri i te nekenga o te utu ki tawhiti rawa. He morearea tēnei rautaki mēnā he tino kaha te ia, nō reira me whakaū me te aukati-ngaronga pakari.
– Te hokohoko purongo
Whakamahia ngā pikinga o te hāereere i te wā e tukuna ana ngā purongo. He nui te tūponotanga, engari tera pea ka paheke, ka whānui haere hoki ngā horapa. Me tūpato ngā kaihokohoko tīmata.
Ahakoa te rautaki, ehara i te mea ko te tomo anake te mea nui, engari ko te putanga anō hoki: ko hea hei tango hua, ko hea hei tapahi i ngā mate.
6. Te Whakahaere Mōrearea: He Wāhanga e Maharatia Ana
He maha ngā kaihokohoko e hinga ana, ehara i te mea nā te koretake o te tātari, engari nā te koretake o te whakahaere mōrearea. I roto i te hokohoko koura, ko ētahi mātāpono matua:
– Whakamahia te aukati mate hei whakawhāiti i ngā mate.
– Whakahaerehia te rahi o tō tūranga. Whakatūria he ōrau iti o tō whakapaipai mō ia hokohoko, hei tauira, 1–2%.
– Kia tūpato ki te huanga. Ka taea e te huanga te whakanui ake i ngā hua, engari ka taea hoki e ia te whakatere i ngā mate.
– Kia tūpato ki te piki me te heke o te uara. Ka taea e te koura te neke i ngā tekau tāra i roto i te wā poto ina he purongo nui.
Kaua e hokohoko nui rawa. Mā te tomo pinepine ki te mākete me te kore he mahere ka hua ake he hapa kare ā-roto.
7. Te Hinengaro Hokohoko: He mea nui ake te Whakahau i te Matapae
Me whai tikanga te hokohoko koura nā te mea ka taea e ōna piki me ngā heke te whakaoho i ngā kare ā-roto—te wehi kei ngaro (FOMO), te mataku ina rere ana i te whero, te apo rānei ina whiwhi hua. Me pēhea te wikitoria i tēnei:
– Waihangahia he mahere hokohoko tuhituhi.
– Arotakehia ngā whakawhitiwhitinga mā te whakamahi i tētahi puka tātaitai hokohoko.
– Arotahi ki te tukanga, kaua ki te hua o tētahi whakawhitiwhitinga kotahi.
– Whakaaetia ko ngā hinganga he wāhanga o te kēmu.
Ehara i te mea he tika tonu ngā kaihokohoko pumau, engari ka taea e rātou te pupuri i te ōwehenga mōrearea-utu me te whakahaere i ō rātou kare ā-roto.
8. Ngā Hipanga hei Tīmata Haumaru i te Hokohoko Koura
Mena he tīmatanga koe, anei ētahi atu kaupae hanganga:
1. Akohia ngā kaupapa matua o te mākete koura me ngā taputapu e hiahia ana koe ki te whakamahi.
2. Tīmata ki tētahi pūkete whakamātautau kia mārama ai koe ki ngā nekehanga me te tūāpapa.
3. Whakatauhia he rautaki māmā, ka whakamātauria mō tētahi wā.
4. Whakamahia he pūtea iti ina hokohoko ora ana, arotahi ki te ōritetanga.
5. Whakanuia mārire te rahi o te tūranga i muri i te whakamanatanga o te tikanga.
Whakamutunga
He mea whakamīharo ngā whai wāhitanga hokohoko koura nā te mea he pānga o ngā āhuatanga o te ao, ā, he maha ngā wā ka rerekē haere. Heoi, he nui ngā mōrearea kei roto i tēnei pūmanawa, inā koa ka whakamahia te huanga me te kore he mahere mārama. Mā te mārama ki ngā taputapu hokohoko koura, ngā whakatau utu, me te whakamahi i te tātaritanga tika ka āwhina i a koe ki te pānui pai ake i te mākete. Ko te mea nui, ko te whakahaere mōrearea me te whakahaere hinengaro he mea nui ki te oranga me te tipu mō te wā roa. Mā te huarahi whai tikanga, ka taea e te hokohoko koura te noho hei mahi arotahi me te whai whakaaro nui ake, kaua ki te whakaaroaro noa me te kore he rautaki.
