Te Whakatauira Monte Carlo i roto i te Whakamahere Ahumahi
I roto i te ao ahumahi hou, he mea nui te whakamahere tika mō te angitu o ngā mahi. I ia rā, i ia rā, ka tūtaki ngā kamupene o te hanga, te whakahaere rauemi, te pūngao, te keri maina, tae atu ki ngā ratonga kaupapa ki te koretake: ka huri te tono mākete, ka koretake te wā tae mai o ngā rauemi mata, ka pāngia pea ngā mīhini e te wā kore mahi, ā, ka rerekē te hua o te mahi. He maha ngā wā ka arahi tēnei koretake ki ngā tikanga whakamahere kua whakaritea—e whakaaro ana he pono ngā taurangi katoa—ki te whakaputa i ngā mahere e ātaahua ana te āhua i runga i te pepa engari he pakarukaru ina whakatinanahia. Koinei te wā ka noho ko te Monte Carlo Simulation hei taputapu nui hei āwhina i ngā kaiwhakatau ki te whakawhanake i ngā mahere e tino pono ana, e ngāwari ana, e pakari ana hoki ki ngā āhuatanga rerekē o te mara.
He aha te Whakatakotoranga Monte Carlo?
Ko te whakatauira Monte Carlo he huarahi tātari e whakamahi ana i te tauira matapōkere hei whakatauira i ngā pūnaha e pāngia ana e te koretake. Engari i te whakamahi i te uara kotahi mō ia taurangi (hei tauira, te tono = 10.000 waeine), ka whakamahia e Monte Carlo he tohatoha tūponotanga (hei tauira, ko te tono he 9.000–12.000 waeine me tētahi tūponotanga). Kātahi ka whakahaerehia e te rorohiko ngā mano ki ngā miriona o ngā "whakaaturanga" matapōkere i runga i taua tohatoha. Ko te hua ehara i te tau kotahi, engari he whānuitanga o ngā putanga pea—pērā i te utu katoa, te wā whakaputa, te taumata ratonga rānei—me ō rātou tūponotanga.
I roto i te ariā, ka whakautua e Monte Carlo ngā pātai pēnei i: "Mēnā ka rerekē te tono mō ngā rauemi mata me ngā wā arahi, he pēhea te tūponotanga ka tutuki i te wheketere āna whāinga tuku?" "He aha te tūponotanga ka oti te kaupapa i te wā tika i runga i ngā rerekētanga hua me ngā whakaroa rauemi?"
He aha i whai tikanga ai mō te whakamahere ahumahi?
He maha ngā taurangi e pā ana ki te whakamahere ahumahi. Hei tauira, ko te nui o te whakaputanga ka pāngia e te wātea o ngā rauemi mata, te kaha o te mīhini, ngā wātaka nekehanga, me ngā tere hapa. I taua wā anō, ka taea e te mākete te tono kia tere te huri i te nui o te mahi. He uaua ki te matapae i aua pūnaha mā te whakamahi i te whakaaro toharite kotahi anake. Ka taea e ngā āhuatanga "toharite" e rua te whakaputa i ngā putanga rerekē ina whakaarohia ngā rerekētanga me ngā tino kino.
He whai hua ngā whakatauira Monte Carlo nā te mea:
1. Tātaihia te mōrearea: kaua ko te "tērā pea ka tomuri", engari ko te "35% te tūponotanga ka tomuri".
2. Whakatauritea ngā huarahi kē atu: hei tauira, te kōwhiringa o te tāpiri mīhini me te tāpiri huringa mahi, ā, tirohia te pānga ki te mōrearea o ngā mahi kei muri.
3. Tautoko i ngā whakataunga e ahu mai ana i te tūponotanga: āwhina ki te whiriwhiri i ngā mahere me te taurite pai rawa atu i waenga i te utu me te taumata ratonga.
4. Whakanuia te manawanui o te mahere: ehara i te mea he tino pai ngā mahere i raro i ngā āhuatanga tino pai, engari ka noho tonu hei whai hua ina puta he raruraru.
Ngā wāhanga matua o te whakatauira Monte Carlo
Kia puta ai he māramatanga whai hua i roto i te whakatauira Monte Carlo, he maha ngā wāhanga nui:
1. Ngā taurangi whakauru kāore i te tino mārama
Ko ēnei taurangi ko te tono, te wā whakatū, te wā ārahi a te kaiwhakarato, te wā kore mahi a te mīhini, te hua whakaputa, ngā utu rauemi mata, te roa rānei o te mahi kaupapa.
2. Te tohatoha tūponotanga
Me whakaatu ia taurangi whakauru mā te tohatoha tika, hei tauira:
– He mea noa mō ngā rerekētanga ōrite (ki te kore e puta he uara kino mō ngā taurangi kāore e taea te kino).
– Te taunga noa mō ngā wā tukatuka, ngā utu rānei e āhua hē ana.
– Tapatoru, PERT rānei ina he iti noa ngā raraunga hītori engari he iti rawa ngā whakatau tata – tino tūpono – mōrahi.
– Te Poisson mō te maha o ngā takahanga (hei tauira, te maha o ngā kino iti mō ia wā).
3. Tauira whanaungatanga tāuru-putanga
Ka taea tēnei tauira te waiho hei tātai ripanga tātaitai, hei tauira rarangi, hei tauira kaha, hei tauira kaupapa rānei (CPM/PERT). Kāore a Monte Carlo e whakakapi i te tauira; engari e whakarei ake ana i te koretake.
4. Te whakahounga whakatauira
Ka whakahaerehia e te rorohiko te tauira i ngā wā katoa me ngā huinga whakauru matapōkere. Ka pā te maha o ngā tāruarua ki te pumau o ngā hua; he maha ngā mano e ranea ana mō ngā take pakihi maha.
5. Putanga me te whakamaoritanga
Ko te putanga matua i te nuinga o te wā:
– te tohatoha utu katoa,
– te tohatoha o ngā wā whakaoti,
– te tūponotanga o te tutuki i te whāinga,
– ngā uara ōrau (P50, P80, P95),
– te aro o ngā taurangi tino whai mana.
Ngā tono Monte Carlo i roto i te whakamahere ahumahi
1. Te whakamahere kaha me te whakaputa
I roto i tētahi wheketere, ko te kaha whai hua ehara i te mea ka whakatauhia e te maha o ngā mīhini anake, engari e te wā kore mahi, ngā whakawhiti, te kounga, me te hua o te kaiwhakahaere. Mā Monte Carlo ka taea e ngā kamupene te whakatauira i te "kaha hei tohatoha" ā, nō reira ka whakautua:
– He aha te tūponotanga ka tutuki te hiahia i te marama e tū mai nei i te whakaputanga?
– E hia te kaha ārai e hiahiatia ana hei whakarite i te taumata ratonga ≥ 95%?
– He aukati kei roto i tētahi tukanga motuhake, nā ngā rerekētanga rānei i waenga i ngā tukanga?
He tauira māmā: ka whakatakotohia e te kamupene he whāinga whakaputa o te 20.000 waeine/wiki. Tērā pea ka kitea i roto i ngā whakatauira ka tutuki noa tēnei whāinga i roto i te 60% o ngā horopaki nā te mea he maha ake ngā wā e kore ai e mahi ngā mīhini i tā rātou i whakaaro ai. Mai i tēnei, ka taea e te kamupene te whiriwhiri i ngā mahi whakaiti: te tiaki ārai, te tāpiri i ngā mīhini tāpiri, te whakarerekē rānei i te kaupapa whakaputa.
2. Te whakahaere i ngā taonga me te mekameka tuku
Kāore i te tino pumau ngā wā arahi a te kaiwhakarato me te tono a te kiritaki. Mā te whakamahi i a Monte Carlo, ka taea e ngā kamupene te whakamātautau i ngā kaupapa here taonga pēnei i te taonga haumaru, ngā tohu tono anō, me te rahi o te rota i raro i ngā āhuatanga koretake. Ko ngā hua ka uru atu ki:
– te tūponotanga o te paunga o ngā taonga,
– te utu toharite mō te pupuri taonga,
– te tauwhitinga utu me te taumata ratonga.
He pai hoki a Monte Carlo mō te aromatawai i te pānga o ngā whakararuraru pēnei i te whakaroa o te tauranga, te rerekētanga o te kawe waka, me ngā mōrearea o te pūtake kotahi. Ka taea e ngā kaiwhakamahere te whakatauira i ngā rautaki whakaiti i te pānga pēnei i te pūtake takirua, ngā ārai tāpiri, ngā kirimana kawe waka rerekē rānei.
3. Te whakatau tata i ngā utu me ngā wātaka o ngā kaupapa ahumahi
I roto i te umanga EPC (Hangarau, Hoko, Hanga), ngā kati tiaki, ngā hanganga whare rānei, he maha ngā wā kāore i te tino mārama te roa o ngā mahi. Ka taea te whakamahi i te Monte Carlo i runga i ngā whatunga kaupapa hei whakaputa i ngā tohatoha o ngā rā otinga o te kaupapa me ngā utu katoa. Engari i te kī "kua oti i roto i ngā rā 180," ka taea e te kamupene te kī:
– P50: 178 ngā rā (50% te tūponotanga ka oti i mua i tēnei),
– P80: 195 ngā rā (he ātaahua ake),
– P95: 210 ngā rā (mō te whakapau kaha rawa atu).
He mea nui ēnei mōhiohio mō ngā whiriwhiringa kirimana, te tohatoha rauemi, me te whakamahere whiu/whakatenatena.
4. Te matapae pūtea me ngā whakataunga haumitanga
Ko ngā whakataunga haumitanga ahumahi—pērā i te hoko mīhini hou, te whakawhānui i ngā whakaurunga, te whakahaere aunoa rānei—e uru ana ki ngā mōrearea e pā ana ki ngā utu, te whakamahinga, ngā utu hoko, me te tono. Ka taea e Monte Carlo te tatau i te tohatoha o te Uara Kupenga o nāianei (NPV) me te Reiti Whakahoki ā-Roto (IRR) kaua ki te tau kotahi. Mā tēnei ka taea e te whakahaere te aromatawai i ngā tūponotanga o te kaupapa ki te whakaputa i tētahi NPV pai, me te mārama ki ngā āhuatanga mōrearea matua.
Ngā mahi whai hua hei whakatinana i te whakatauira Monte Carlo
1. Whakatauhia te whāinga whakatau: hei tauira, te whakaiti i te korenga o ngā taonga, te whakarite rānei kia 95% te taumata ratonga.
2. Hangaia he tauira tūāpapa: he tauira kaha, he rarangi taonga, he tauira kaupapa rānei kua whakamanahia.
3. Kohikohi raraunga: whakamahia ngā raraunga o mua, ngā tuhinga wā kore mahi, te wā arahi, te whakatau a te tohunga rānei mēnā he iti ngā raraunga.
4. Tīpakohia he tohatoha: whakatikatikahia kia rite ki te āhua o te raraunga; whakahaerehia he whakamātautau pai-o-te-taunga mēnā ka taea.
5. Whakahaerehia te whakatauira: tautuhia ngā tāruarua (hei tauira, 10.000) me te whakarite kia pumau ngā hua.
6. Tātari putanga: tirohia ngā ōrau, te tūponotanga o te taenga ki te ūnga, me ngā kauwhata tohatoha.
7. Whakahaerehia he tātaritanga aro: tautuhia ngā taurangi e tino awe ana i ngā hua.
8. Hoahoahia ngā mahi whakaiti i te pānga: whakarerekētia ngā kaupapa here, tāpirihia ngā ārai, arotauhia rānei ngā tukanga, kātahi ka whakatauira anō.
Ngā wero me ngā hapa noa
Ahakoa te kaha, ka taea e Monte Carlo te tinihanga mēnā:
– he hē, he tino māmā rānei te tauira taketake,
– he whakaaro hē, he kore rānei e whakaatu i ngā raraunga whakauru,
– kāore e arohia ngā hononga i waenga i ngā taurangi (hei tauira, he maha ngā wā ka piki ake te roa o te tuku tono),
– ka whakamahia ngā hua me te kore e mārama ki te horopaki whakahaere.
Nō reira, he mea tino nui te whakamana i te tauira me ngā kōrero whakawhiti-mahi (te whakaputa, te mekameka tuku, te pūtea).
Te Katinga
Mā ngā whakatauira Monte Carlo ka puta he huarahi whakaaro hou i roto i te whakamahere ahumahi: te neke atu i te tino pono ki te whakahaere i te koretake kua inehia. Mā te whakaputa i ngā tohatoha o ngā putanga me ngā tūponotanga o te whakatutuki i ngā whāinga, ka āwhina ēnei tikanga i ngā kamupene ki te whakatau i ngā whakataunga pakari ake—ahakoa mō te whakaputa, te pupuri taonga, ngā kaupapa, ngā haumitanga rānei. I roto i te ao ahumahi e kaha haere ana te hihiri, ehara a Monte Carlo i te taputapu tatauranga noa iho, engari he turanga nui mō te whakamahere e hangai ana ki te mōrearea me te pono ake.
