Yadda Ma'aunin Farashin Hannun Jari ke Aiki
Ma'aunin farashin hannun jari yana ɗaya daga cikin kalmomin da aka fi amfani da su wajen tattaunawa kan kasuwar jari. Lokacin da labarai suka ba da rahoton cewa "Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) tana ƙaruwa" ko kuma "Dow Jones tana raguwa," a zahiri suna magana ne game da motsin ma'auni. Duk da haka, ga mutane da yawa, ma'auni har yanzu suna kama da lambobi masu ban mamaki waɗanda ke canzawa ba tare da ma'ana ba. Duk da haka, ma'auni suna aiki mai mahimmanci: suna taimaka mana mu fahimci yanayin kasuwa, kwatanta aikin saka hannun jari, har ma suna aiki a matsayin tushen samfura kamar ma'aunin ma'auni da ETFs. To, ta yaya ma'aunin farashin hannun jari ke aiki?
Menene ma'aunin farashin hannun jari?
A taƙaice dai, ma'aunin farashin hannun jari lamba ce da ke wakiltar motsin farashin wani rukuni na hannun jari. Ba a ciniki da fihirisa kai tsaye kamar hannun jari, amma ƙimarsu tana canzawa bisa ga canje-canjen farashin hannun jarin da suka yi amfani da su. Saboda haka, galibi ana kiran fihirisa da "barometers" na kasuwa: suna nuna ko kasuwa tana hawa sama (bullish) ko ƙasa (bearish).
Misalan fitattun fihirisa a Indonesia sun haɗa da Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), wanda ke nuna motsin yawancin hannun jari a Kasuwar Hannun Jari ta Indonesia. Akwai kuma fihirisar LQ45, wacce ta ƙunshi fihirisa 45 masu ruwa sosai kuma galibi ana ɗaukarta a matsayin alamar fihirisa mai launin shuɗi.
Me yasa ake ƙirƙirar ma'aunin?
An ƙirƙiri fihirisar don manyan dalilai da yawa:
1. Auna aikin kasuwa
Da adadi ɗaya, 'yan kasuwa za su iya ganin taƙaitaccen bayani game da yanayin kasuwar hannayen jari ba tare da duba kowane farashin hannun jari daban-daban ba.
2. Zama abin koyi
Masu zuba jari da manajojin zuba jari sau da yawa suna kwatanta aikin fayil ɗinsu da ma'auni. Misali, shin asusun haɗin gwiwa na hannun jari zai iya yin fice da Jakarta Composite Index (JCI)?
3. Kayayyakin saka hannun jari na asali
Fihirisa suna aiki a matsayin ma'auni don asusun haɗin gwiwa na index, ETFs, da kwangilolin da aka samo asali (misali, makomar index). Waɗannan samfuran suna ƙoƙarin kwaikwayon ko bin diddigin aikin index.
4. Taimakawa wajen nazarin tattalin arziki
Sau da yawa ana amfani da wannan ma'auni a matsayin alamar ra'ayin tattalin arziki da kuma kwarin gwiwar masu zuba jari.
Membobin Index: waɗanne hannun jari aka haɗa?
Ba duk fihirisa suna da membobi iri ɗaya ba. Wasu fihirisa suna da faɗi (sun shafi hannun jari da yawa), yayin da wasu kuma suna zaɓe. Mai tsara fihirisa (misali, cibiyar musayar kuɗi ko cibiyar fihirisa) ne ke ƙayyade membobi bisa ga wasu sharuɗɗa, kamar:
- Babban jarin kasuwa (ƙimar kamfani akan musayar hannun jari)
- Ruwan kuɗi (sau nawa ake ciniki da hannun jari)
- Kyauta mai float (wani ɓangare na hannun jari yana yaɗuwa a bainar jama'a)
– Takamaiman sassa (misali, takamaiman fihirisa na fasaha, shari'a, ko hannun jari na masu amfani)
– Bin wasu ƙa'idodi (misali ma'aunin hannun jari na shari'a)
Ana yawan kimanta membobin ma'auni lokaci-lokaci, misali duk bayan watanni shida. Ana iya cire hannun jarin da ba su cika sharuɗɗan ba kuma a maye gurbinsu da wasu hannun jari.
Yadda ake lissafin fihirisa: daga farashin hannun jari zuwa lamba ɗaya
Don taƙaita rukunin hannun jari zuwa lambar fihirisa ɗaya, ana buƙatar hanyar lissafi. Ana amfani da hanyoyi da yawa a duniyar kasuwannin jari.
1. Ma'aunin nauyi na kasuwa
Wannan ita ce hanyar da manyan fihirisa kamar Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) da kuma fihirisa da yawa na duniya ke amfani da ita. A cikin wannan hanyar, hannun jari masu manyan manyan kasuwoyi za su yi tasiri sosai kan motsin fihirisa.
Misali mai sauƙi:
Idan hannun jari na A babban kamfani ne kuma hannun jari na B ƙaramin kamfani ne, ƙarin kashi 1% na hannun jari na A zai “ɗaga” ma'aunin fiye da ƙarin kashi 1% na hannun jari na B, saboda ƙimar A ta fi girma.
Ana ɗaukar wannan hanyar a matsayin mai yiwuwa saboda tana nuna "rabin" manyan kamfanoni a kasuwa. Duk da haka, sakamakon hakan shine cewa hannun jari kaɗan na iya yin tasiri sosai ga ma'aunin.
2. Ma'aunin farashi mai nauyi
A cikin wannan hanyar, hannun jari masu farashi mai girma a kowace hannun jari suna da tasiri mafi girma, ba tare da la'akari da girman kamfani ba. Misali mafi shahara shine Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).
Abin da ya jawo wannan hanyar shi ne farashin hannun jari na iya yin tsada saboda ƙarancin hannun jari da ake da su, ba wai saboda kamfanin ya fi girma ba. Saboda haka, yawancin fihirisa na zamani sun fi son auna darajar kasuwa.
3. Ma'aunin nauyi daidai gwargwado
A cikin ma'aunin daidaito, kowane hannun jari yana da tasiri iri ɗaya. Saboda haka, motsin ma'aunin shine matsakaicin motsi na duk hannun jari na membobi.
Amfanin: ma'aunin ya fi "daidai" kuma manyan hannun jari ba su mamaye shi ba. Rashin amfaninsa: yana da wahala a bi diddigin manyan kayayyaki na saka hannun jari saboda suna buƙatar sake daidaita daidaito akai-akai, kuma farashin ciniki na iya zama mafi girma.
Matsayin "shekarar tushe" da lambar ma'aunin tushe
Domin ma'aunin bayanai ya zama mai ma'ana, mai ƙirƙirar ma'aunin bayanai yana saita ƙimar tushe a wani takamaiman lokaci (kwanan wata). Misali, a wani takamaiman rana, ma'aunin yana saita 100 ko 1.000. Bayan haka, canjin ma'aunin yana nuna canje-canje a cikin ƙimar ƙungiyar hannun jari idan aka kwatanta da wannan wurin farawa.
Idan ma'aunin ya tashi daga 1.000 zuwa 1.200, yana nufin cewa a matsakaici (bisa ga hanyar auna nauyi), ƙimar rukunin hannun jari ta ƙaru da kusan kashi 20% idan aka kwatanta da lokacin da aka saita ma'aunin a 1.000.
Me yasa akwai "daidaitawa" ga ma'aunin?
Lissafin ma'auni ba wai kawai game da canjin farashi ba ne. Abubuwan da suka faru a kamfanoni na iya kawo cikas ga lissafin idan ba a daidaita su ba, kamar:
– Raba hannun jari (raba darajar da aka ƙayyade da farashin hannun jari)
- Rabawa ta baya
– Batun haƙƙoƙi (bayar da sabbin hannun jari tare da haƙƙin riga-kafi)
– Rabon hannun jari
- Juyawa
– Canje-canje a adadin hannun jarin da ake da su
Ba tare da gyare-gyare ba, ma'aunin zai iya tashi ko faɗuwa da gangan saboda canje-canjen fasaha, ba saboda rauni ko ƙarfafa kasuwa na gaske ba. Saboda haka, masu shirya ma'aunin ma'auni suna amfani da ma'aunin daidaitawa (wani lokacin ana kiransa mai rarrabawa ko ma'aunin daidaitawa) don kiyaye daidaito da kuma nuna ainihin canje-canje a darajar tattalin arziki.
Fihirisar Farashi vs jimillar fihirisar dawowa
Mutane da yawa suna tunanin cewa fihirisa suna nuna ribar saka hannun jari ne kawai. Duk da haka, fihirisa da ake yawan nunawa a labarai galibi fihirisa ne na farashi: suna auna canje-canje ne kawai a farashin hannun jari.
Akwai kuma jimlar riba, wanda ya haɗa da tasirin riba (idan aka yi la'akari da cewa an sake saka hannun jari a hannun jari). A tsawon lokaci, riba na iya zama mai mahimmanci. Saboda haka, aikin fayil ɗin masu zuba jari na iya bambanta lokacin kwatanta ma'aunin farashi da ma'aunin riba na jimillar.
Ta yaya fihirisa ke shafar masu zuba jari?
Fihirisar ba lamba ce kawai da ke kan allo ba. Tana da tasiri sosai, misali:
1. Zama abin tuntuɓa ga dabarun saka hannun jari marasa amfani
Masu zuba jari za su iya siyan asusun haɗin gwiwa na index ko ETF waɗanda ke kwaikwayon takamaiman ma'auni. Idan ma'aunin ya tashi, samfurin yana iya ƙaruwa (ban da kuɗaɗen da aka biya).
2. Tura kwararar kuɗi zuwa wasu hannun jari
Idan hannun jari ya shiga cikin wani sanannen ma'auni, buƙata sau da yawa tana ƙaruwa saboda asusun index da manajojin saka hannun jari suna buƙatar siyan hannun jari don daidaita fayil ɗin su da ma'aunin. Akasin haka, hannun jarin da aka cire daga ma'aunin na iya fuskantar matsin lamba na siyarwa.
3. Samar da fahimtar kasuwa
Idan JCI ta faɗi sosai, ra'ayin masu zuba jari na iya taɓarɓarewa, koda kuwa ba dukkan hannun jari ke faɗuwa sosai ba. Wannan ma'aunin yana aiki a matsayin alamar tunani.
Iyakokin ma'aunin farashin hannun jari
Duk da cewa suna da amfani, fihirisa suna da iyakoki:
– Ba koyaushe yake wakiltar duk yanayin masu zuba jari ba
Kasuwa na iya tashi saboda manyan hannun jari suna ƙaruwa, yayin da ƙananan hannun jari da yawa ke faɗuwa.
- Nauyin ya shafi
A cikin ma'aunin nauyi na kasuwa, wasu hannun jari kaɗan na iya mamaye motsi.
– Ba ya nuna ribar mai zuba jari ta atomatik
Kuɗin ma'amala, haraji, da rabon riba (idan ana amfani da ma'aunin farashi) ba koyaushe ake nuna su ba.
Kammalawa
Ma'aunin farashin hannun jari yana aiki ta hanyar taƙaita motsin ƙungiyar hannun jari zuwa lamba ɗaya, mai sauƙin kulawa. Ana tattara shi ta amfani da ƙa'idodin zaɓar membobi da hanyoyin lissafi - waɗanda aka fi aunawa ta hanyar amfani da jarin kasuwa. Darajar ma'aunin tana canzawa tare da canje-canje a farashin hannun jari na membobinta kuma an daidaita ta don ayyukan kamfanoni don tabbatar da cewa motsinta yana nuna ainihin yanayin kasuwa. Ta hanyar fahimtar yadda ma'aunin ke aiki, masu zuba jari za su iya karanta labaran kasuwa yadda ya kamata, zaɓar dabarun saka hannun jari, da kuma tantance aikin fayil ɗin su da kyau.
Idan kuna so, zan iya ƙara misali na ƙididdige ma'aunin da lambobi masu sauƙi (mataki-mataki) ko kuma kwatanta IHSG, LQ45, da ma'aunin hannun jari na Musulunci daga mahangar hanyoyin aiki.
